Experience and Talent

If there is hope in Athens, it lies with the soon-to-be junior class of Charles Mann, Kenny Gaines, and Brandon Morris.  Throw in a battle-tested Marcus Thornton and a savvy Nemanja Djurisic and, baby, you got a stew going.

But does experience equal success?  Another good write-up by Deadspin tries to answer that question:

Are the one-and-done-reliant teams—or at least those teams not coached by John Calipari—secretly vulnerable against older, more seasoned opponents?

Calipari is called out as an outlier because his young teams have a tendency to win more often than expected against veteran squads.  That alone may hint at the ultimate answer.

The median tournament team age (2.77, based on minutes played, where FR = 1, SO = 2, JR = 3, and SR =4) seems right in line with what Georgia will be putting on the court next year, which is encouraging.  However, other numbers are less favorable.  Take this for example:

It turns out that higher seeds are typically a bit younger than lower seeds.

On the surface, this finding makes sense.  Your lower seeds often come from the one bid conferences, and the talent in those conferences is often spread pretty evenly across teams.  That means experience may indeed triumph in a conference tournament setting, putting the "older" clubs in the tournament.

Your higher seeds tend to be the major conference champions and at-large recipients.  These are the teams pulling in 3-, 4-, and 5-star guys year in and year out.  These are also the teams that field younger clubs, either because of attrition due to the NBA draft or because the young talent is too good to keep on the bench.

The post is worth your time and, even though the sample size is way too small to be conclusive, the message seems to be that experience wins out when talent is equal, but talent tends to win out in the end.

What does it all mean for Georgia?  It means there is hope.  It also means Mark Fox has to start winning some of these big-time recruiting battles, because not doing so lowers the ceiling on what the team can accomplish long term.

h/t Deadspin

Building Something

Central to the decision regarding Mark Fox's future is the question of whether or not he is actually building something.  Deadspin has as interesting read on what Steve Fisher has done at San Diego State.

I would encourage you to read it when you have time, but I will hit some of the highlights.

You may remember Mark Fox asking for a long contract when he was hired, insisting a strong program could not be built quickly.  He and Fisher are on the same page there:

When he took the job at San Diego State University, in the fall of 1999, Steve Fisher didn't promise that he'd turn things around overnight. He signed a seven-year contract, as if to prove the point, and spent the first few months of that deal barnstorming dozens of San Diego businesses and social groups to sell tickets.

Well, mostly on the same page, I suppose.  Fox has not done much barnstorming, and he has only seemed to grasp the P.R. part of his job in the last few months.  Fisher's story does lend credence, though, to the idea that it takes time to right a struggling program at a school with little-to-no basketball history.

Fisher also coaches a similar style of basketball, focusing on defense and quality of shots, not quantity:

It starts with their defense, one of the stingiest units west of the Rockies—they're long and quick, switch ball screens freely, and press energetically without committing careless fouls.

That certainly doesn't describe Georgia's defense every night, but it sounds right on their best nights.

As for offense, SDSU ranks 196th (Georgia is 228th) in the country in points per game and 329th in assists per game (Georgia is 328th).

Why do I bring it up?  Well, it certainly strikes at the heart of some of the fire-Fox arguments being offered up - he has had enough time and the basketball isn't exciting enough, in particular.

We will see what McGarity does (if Fox is still here Monday, we can probably assume he is not going anywhere).  In the meantime, the Fisher study should be an interesting one to Georgia fans.

h/t Deadspin

Checking the News

It has been a long couple of days.  I have not had a whole lot of time to stay current.

Oh hey!  Georgia basketball is in the news:

"No means no, date rape is a serious issue.
- You don’t own your girlfriend.
- Birth control is your responsibility too.
- Never assault or intimidate a woman.
- Don’t spend all of your energy in the bed all night
- Hicky’s/passion marks should not be ever noticed by coaches
- One. Not two or three girlfriends."

Fantastic.  This is exactly the kind of document you want getting out when your head coach is struggling to recruit at a high level.

Come to Georgia, where we don't even trust you enough to stay out of your bedroom!  Literally:

"We're paying so we're inspecting. I can enter the dorm at any time."

 Sigh.  The fact that this sounds like it was written by a fourth grader is the least of my concerns.  I have no problem with policies to which your athletes must adhere, but at some point you have to treat these guys like young adults who have earned their scholarship.

With that said, there have not been many discipline issues with Mark Fox at the helm, so maybe he is on to something here.  Can I suggest one more?  "Make sure you have a license before you drive a car."

h/t Seth Emerson

Goals

Mark Fox thinks Georgia is ready to make a run at the tournament:

“We have enough back to make that a very realistic goal for this team,” Fox said. “We finally will return lots of productivity.”

I agree with him, of course, but I hate the implication that this is the first year that's been the case.

Wasn't there enough to make the tournament with a sophomore Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and the freshman trio of Mann, Gaines, and Morris?  There was clearly enough to make the tournament this year.  It was a few uninspiring and mismanaged non-conference games along with a worst-case showing against Vanderbilt that prevented the Dawgs from dancing, not a lack of productivity.

Assuming, however, that Fox is right about next year, there is one nagging concern:

But who will join them? That’s the key question for Georgia’s offseason.

Georgia has two scholarships to give for next year but has not signed anybody yet. Fox said the Bulldogs could save one of those scholarships for next year.

“We’ll just see how it works out,” Fox said.

Some may view this as Fox being tactical, developing some young talent, and saving space for a loaded 2015 class.  The cynical will see a coach who couldn't sign anybody and continues to make excuses.

If Fox does survive this offseason, as it now appears he will, the bar cannot be set lower than an NCAA tournament berth next year.  Period.  Some convenient excuses have popped up in the form of early-entries and bad breaks (the 2012-13 season had more than its fair share), but there can be none in 2014-15.

With that said, Fox does have one intriguing statistic on his side:

Fox is only the second Georgia men’s basketball head coach since World War II to have a winning record after five years in Athens.

Pretty amazing, right?  Perhaps it is fans like me that are setting the bar a little too high?  I hope not.

h/t Seth Emerson

Keeping Up With Football

Who says we're a football school?  J.J. Frazier tries to bring a little more attention to the basketball team.

These are so avoidable.  I just don't get it...

h/t Seth Emerson

The End

The paper towel dispensers in the Stegeman Coliseum trick me every time.  The picture tells me to wave my hand for a paper towel.  The text tells me to wave my hand for a paper towel.  Only after waving for a second or two do I remember that the picture is a lie.  The machine may be built to dispense them automatically, but in Stegeman Coliseum, I have to push the panel if I want a damn paper towel.

When the Georgia basketball team runs onto the court, what do you see?  I see a team built to control tempo and pace, to grind out possessions, to get the ball to the rim, and to exert defensive pressure on your shooters.  Then I wave my hands and it's 8-0.  Then I wave some more and it's 18-2.  Soon, it's 39-13 and it's too late.  The machine is not working like it is supposed to, and the architect is standing with his arms crossed, looking bewildered.

It is almost beside the point that Georgia cut that lead to 4.  Was there ever a moment you thought they might win?  The reality this morning is that Georgia got run off their home court by a good-not-great Louisiana Tech team and the season is over.

The crowd, by the way, was spectacular.  The lower bowl was mostly full, and the building was loud.  People were on their feet screaming when Georgia cut the lead down to 18 after half.  18!  Cry apathy all you want, but there are plenty of fans who clearly want good basketball in Athens.  Stegeman was rocking yesterday despite perhaps the worst 10 minutes of basketball I have ever seen.

So where does Georgia go from here?  I know what I think, but mine is but a voice in the wilderness.  Greg McGarity has the one and only vote, and it is time for him to make a decision.

I will say this:  if McGarity finds himself looking for a new basketball coach, calling Michael White the day after Louisiana Tech loses wouldn't be a bad start to a search.

Louisiana Tech

As I get ready to head up 316, I do so with a bad feeling in my gut.  This Louisiana Tech team is no joke.

The turnovers we saw against Vermont cannot happen.  Tech scores points, and they do so in bunches.  Georgia needs to control the tempo for the entire 40 minutes, take care of the ball, and probably score in the 70's to win.

Stegeman has been good to us this year, so let's hope that trend continues.  Say hi if you see me.  I'll be the one in red!

Evaluating Fox: Recruiting

Let's continue trying to find some tangible facts and figures Greg McGarity might use as he makes his decision on whether or not to retain Mark Fox.

As a reminder, we're trying to decide if the numbers suggest another year for Fox is warranted, or whether it's time to go in a different direction.  I will deliver a verdict based on each individual metric.  Then at the end of this series, I'll give my opinion as to whether or not Fox should be retained.

Today's metric:  recruiting.

The numbers:  I wasn't able to find comprehensive recruiting rankings for the years Fox has been at Georgia, so, unfortunately, opinion will have to leak in here.  Instead of overall class rankings, we'll look at a list of hits and misses.  Misses are high profile players that at least strongly considered playing for Fox at Georgia or players that Fox chose to sign that have not worked out.

Hits:

• Gerald Robinson, Jr.
• Marcus Thornton
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
• Nemanja Djurisic
• Kenny Gaines
• Charles Mann

Misses:

• Derrick Favors
• Jelan Kendrick
• Dwayne Polee
• Kevin Ware
• Tim Dixon
• John Cannon
• John Florveus
• Nick Jacobs
• Tony Parker
• Shaq Goodwin
• Robert Carter
• Evan Nolte
• Houston Kessler
• Kenny Paul Geno

The expectation:  The state of Georgia is one of the most talent rich states there is when it comes to basketball.  Don't believe me?  Look for yourself.  The distance from Atlanta certainly affects recruiting, but Georgia should still be able to pull in at least 1 top 100 player every season, and occasionally more.

The reality:  The lists above are merely my opinion.  Many may see Thornton as a miss, but as we begin to see his potential, it's clear how much the injuries hurt him.  Kessler and Geno are young enough that they could turn into players, but I don't believe they were a good use of a scholarship based on what I've seen so far.

The fact that there are more misses than hits shouldn't be too alarming, either.  That's reality for all but about 5 schools.

What is concerning is threefold:  Mark Fox has only landed 1 top 100 player in his 5 years at Georgia (using the ESPN rankings), he currently has 0 commits from the class of 2014, and he has never signed an impact post player (unless you want to count Thornton, which is your prerogative, but he projected more as a tweener-forward).

Thornton, Gaines, and Mann are all wins for Fox.  Morris, Frazier, and Parker have shown some good flashes this year, and they may make him look smart down the road.  Djurisic was a nice find in the spring.  However, any team with a solid post presence (Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky come to mind) quickly exposed Georgia's lack of size and talent in the paint.

The class of 2015 is another great one in the state.  If Fox stays, he simply has to land 2 top 100 guys out of that class.  If he can do so, the future may be bright in Athens.  Unfortunately, history suggests none of those guys will be signing on the dotted line for UGA.

The verdict*:  Fire him.

* Again, the verdict is based only on this metric, and only at this point in time.

h/t Deadspin

Evaluating Fox: Wins and Losses

Let's continue trying to find some tangible facts and figures Greg McGarity might use as he makes his decision on whether or not to retain Mark Fox.

As a reminder, we're trying to decide if the numbers suggest another year for Fox is warranted, or whether it's time to go in a different direction.  I will deliver a verdict based on each individual metric.  Then at the end of this series, I'll give my opinion as to whether or not Fox should be retained.

Today's metric:  wins and losses.

The numbers:
2009-10:  14-17 (5-11)

2010-11:  21-12 (9-7)

2011-12:  15-17 (5-11)

2012-13:  15-17 (9-9)

2013-14:  20-13 (12-6) - overall win total could still grow

The expectation:  In line with the expectation that Georgia should be in the NCAA tournament discussion every year, between 18 and 22 wins should be the goal.  Other factors, like out-of-conference strength of schedule and overall conference RPI obviously play into the tournament committee's decision making, but getting around 20 wins should at least put a school like Georgia in the conversation.

The reality:  Fox has now hit this metric twice, but he has missed badly three times.  The trick here is that this past season has to be weighted a bit more heavily.  If the roster were senior-laden or losing players to the NBA, the outlook would be far more dire.  The reality is, this team won 20 games after losing a player early to the NBA, and all of the major contributors will be back next year.  The conference wins have also trended upward the past three seasons, and despite the relative weakness of the SEC, that can't be ignored.

The verdict*:  Retain him.

* Again, the verdict is based only on this metric, and only at this point in time.

Tourney Time

Today is my favorite day of the year, and for the 13th time in 15 years, the NCAA tournament will tip off without Georgia in the field.

It should, can, and (I believe) will get better.  Enjoy the games, and expect greatness from the Bulldogs.  Our time will come.

Let Them Play

One thing that is hard to dispute is that Charles Mann was not playing well as Vermont made their run last night:

Vermont (22-11) trailed by nine at halftime but vaulted into the lead with a 21-2 run in the second half. Mann was struggling immensely, committing many of the turnovers himself.

But when Georgia’s deficit reached nine, it was Mann who spurred the comeback, then carried it through.

“During halftime my teammates told me to keep my head up, and just play the way I play,” Mann said.

What happened next was uncharacteristic of Mark Fox.  He left him in the game, and Mann rewarded him by playing spectacularly down the stretch and carrying Georgia into the second round.

I have complained here in the past that Fox is way too quick with the hook, especially with his best players.  Finally, last night, Fox coached as if the game was win-or-go-home.  Despite all the sloppiness, he knew Mann and Gaines were his best chance to win, so he let them play.

Did it represent a shift?  I doubt it.  But it was nice to see.

h/t Seth Emerson

Read more here: http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2014/03/19/3012649/georgia-slips-past-vermont.html#storylink=cp

One More Game

So there will be at least one more game for these Georgia Bulldogs.

But what to say about this team?  Georgia was obviously the more athletic team on the court tonight.  They were playing at home in front of a small but very spirited crowd.  They shot 50% from the field.  They out-rebounded a smaller team 31-18.  All these things point to what should have been a blowout.

Yet at the under 8 timeout, it looked like Georgia's season might end.  They gave up a 21-2 run on their home court.  They turned the ball over 22 times.  In the end, the game was won at the free throw line - not typically a strength of this team.

Charles Mann deserves a lot of credit - and a little blame - for putting Georgia on his shoulders down the stretch.  Vermont could not handle his quickness, and he made them pay in the lane and at the foul line.  Any offensive possession in the final 6 minutes that did not end with him going to the bucket was a bad one.

There are those who believe Mark Fox has saved his job.  I am not so sure.  Well-coached teams do not give up 21-2 runs to inferior opponents - home or away.  Well-coached teams do not turn the ball over 22 times, especially when at least 15 of those were unforced errors.

You know what well-coached teams do?  Well-coached teams bury a team like Vermont in the first half and crush their spirit.

I am excited there will be another game.  This team has won 20 games, and that means something.  I hope to see you next week at Stegeman.

Might as well win another one, right?

On the Trail

Mark Fox really doesn't want to talk about Bruce Pearl.  He did answer a question or two, though, including this one:

Fox then was asked if Pearl's hiring made it a bit harder on the recruiting trail.

"Not necessarily," Fox said. "It's a challenge no matter what. He did a good job at Tennessee, and I'm sure he'll do a good job at Auburn."

The last thing we need is to make recruiting harder on Fox.  The reality, though, is that Pearl is going to pound Atlanta, and Fox better be prepared to raise his game to a whole new level.

This isn't new, and this was the case whether or not Pearl came back to the SEC.  However, the pressure just got turned up.  Big time.

h/t Seth Emerson

Pearl to Auburn

Bruce Pearl is going to be the next coach at Auburn:

"I'm humbled and blessed to be back in the game that I love," Pearl told the school's website. "I don't know how long it will take, but it's time to rebuild the Auburn basketball program and bring it to a level of excellence so many of the other teams on campus enjoy."

Is there a chance he'll build Auburn into a powerhouse?  Absolutely.  The man can recruit and the man can coach.

Is there also a chance he'll have his first NCAA violation under his belt by next fall?  Absolutely.  If you've never read his history, now would be a good time.  Let's just say if another coach has a chance to bust him, don't think it won't happen.

We do know the SEC just got tougher.  That's a good thing for the conference and, by extension, should be a good thing for Georgia basketball.

h/t ESPN

All-SEC

Kenny Gaines and Charles Mann get honorable mention all-SEC.

There are 17 players total on the 1st, 2nd, and honorable mention lists, and my guess is only 5 of them will return to school next year.  Two of those belong to Georgia.

So that's something, right?

Vermont

So Georgia is in the NIT, and apparently received a lot of respect from the committee.  They're a 2 seed, and at least one Dawg is excited:

"Cam Forte said that he nearly died because we were one of the last teams announced," head coach Mark Fox said, referring to his sophomore forward.

Read more here: http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2014/03/16/3007650/nit-time-georgia-chosen-gets-good.html#storylink=cpy

The seeding is really good news for Georgia, as it means at least two games at Stegeman (assuming a first round win, of course) where the Dawgs have played really good basketball, particularly since the start of conference play.  Vermont was ok on the road (9-7), but the competition was not stiff.

A quick glance tells me this may be a decent matchup for Georgia, too.  Vermont appears to be a guard-oriented offense that relies on 3-point shooting.  They have three players shooting over 40%, which is fantastic, but I'll take that in an opponent over a strong post presence any day.  Georgia has defended the 3 very well (Kentucky notwithstanding), and is able to control the boards against jump shooting teams (Kentucky notwithstanding).

In fact, no one in Georgia's quadrant scares me.  There's no reason Georgia can't have success in this field.

Sometimes these tournaments are unpredictable, though.  It often comes down to who wants to be there.  These games are like bowl games:  if you pout, sometimes you find yourself getting upset.

Fox put it like this:

"The first challenge will be, like it is for a lot of teams, when you come short of your original goal, is being able to regroup and get ready to play with the energy and intelligence and effort that you need to play against the good teams. That's challenge No. 1."

The good news is, the players are saying the right things so far:

 "We can win the NIT if we're selected to go there," Georgia guard Kenny Gaines said after Saturday's loss. "And that would be a great confidence-booster going into next year."

Read more here: http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2014/03/16/3007650/nit-time-georgia-chosen-gets-good.html#storylink=cpy

Preach it, Kenny.  It's not where Georgia wanted to be, but it's where Georgia is, so they may as well go win the thing, right?

h/t Seth Emerson

Read more here: http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2014/03/16/3007650/nit-time-georgia-chosen-gets-good.html#storylink=cp

Substitutions

One of things that admittedly drives me bonkers about Fox is his substitution patterns.  Basketball is about rhythm and momentum, and it's hard to come by either of those things if you aren't able to stay in the game.

The philosophy of sitting a guy with 2 fouls for the remainder of the first half is something I want to get into more later, but consider this fact from tonight's game:

Charles Mann is Georgia’s leading scorer, but he sat for a big chunk of the second half despite only having two fouls.

“Coaches decision. I don’t know,” he said.

Fox sat Mann down early in the first half because he hit his two foul threshold.  Then he held him out of much of the second half.  Why?  Let him explain:

Fox said the decision was a combination of Mann’s play and that of his backup, freshman J.J. Frazier. The 5-10 freshman once again provided a spark when he entered in the first half, after Mann picked up his second foul. Mann started the second half, but was yanked early after missing a 3-pointer, and stayed out for an extended period.

“Charles, we’ve had to ride him hard,” Fox said. “And just trying to get him back started into rhythm, get him loose, get his mind right, I think it was about both of them.”

Fox wanted Mann loose and in rhythm, so he sat him down?

Frazier played very well, and he has proven himself as a very capable backup.  I am excited about his future at Georgia.  However, today, Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines are the Bulldogs' two best players.  This game was the definition of a must-win, yet Fox decided it was a good time to teach Charles a lesson.

Teach him a lesson tomorrow in practice.  If you can't get his mind right during the game, you're not doing your job as a coach.  That's as much a Mark Fox problem as it is a Charles Mann problem.

h/t Seth Emerson

Read more here: http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2014/03/15/3005512/georgias-sec-run-a-big-step-in.html#storylink=cp 

Read more here: http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2014/03/15/3005512/georgias-sec-run-a-big-step-in.html#storylink=c

Overmatched

When I said Georgia had no room for error, that's what I meant.  It may not even be a stretch to say Georgia had the better team today.  Kentucky, however, had the better players.

Georgia has one or two players that can take over a game.  We saw Nemi get hot at Missouri.  We saw Kenny Gaines run off 8 straight against Ole Miss in Athens.  Both of those guys should be back and better next year, but neither of them had it today.

Kentucky has 5 or 6 players that can take over a game, and today it was Aaron Harrison.  Tomorrow it might be his brother...it might be Randle...it might be Poythress...

There is a lot to like about Georgia right now.  The fight and the want-to are there.  Some real talent is returning next year.  Now it's on Fox (assuming he stays) to take this thing to the next level.  We'll talk a lot in the coming weeks about what that means, but for now, I hope our players are proud of what they've accomplished.

The NIT bracket comes out tomorrow night after the NCAA bracket is announced.  Let's hope there's a Georgia home game so we can Rock the Steg one more time this season.

Today's Keys

A few things need to happen for Georgia to win this game against Kentucky:

1. Kenny and/or J.J. Frazier need to get hot.
2. Charles Mann needs to live in the lane, not behind the 3-point line.
3. Marcus Thornton and Donte' Williams need to play the games of their lives.

There is almost no margin for error today.  Kentucky is absolutely the better team on paper.  Either the Dawgs bring their A game, or they go home.

I think the game will be won or lost in the paint.  That's why Williams and Thornton are so key.  If they man up and hold their own, we have a chance.  So hey, let's go win this thing.  Why not us?

Non-conference Matters

Mark Fox doesn't have time for numbers:

“It’s ridiculous,” Fox said. “You can skew statistics in any way you want. … I realize that in November Georgia was not an at-large team, but the Georgia team right now is pretty damn good! We’ve got more work to do before we can realistically argue that, but if you just rely on numbers you can make any case that you want.”

He's right that this team has steadily improved over the course of the season.  Georgia is playing tournament quality basketball right now.

The problem is that November matters.  Fox tends to treat non-conference play as sandbox mode where the outcome doesn't mean anything.  He plays with bizarre rotations and he tends to give out minutes to guys who have not earned them.  This results in losses (see:  Charleston).

Every Georgia fan knew coming into this season that Mann and Gaines were the key for this team, yet he refused to ride them during non-conference play.  Instead, we saw Kenny Paul Geno, Juwan Parker, John Cannon, and Taylor Echols playing critical minutes in losses to bad teams like Davidson and Temple.

The philosophy has to change next year.  Mann, Gaines, and Morris will all be juniors, and Georgia can ride them to the tournament if Fox lets them.  But it has to start in game 1.

None of this will stop Fox from trying to sell his team (nor should it):

“If we went to the finals of the tournament, for instance, and we get second place in the regular season and second place in the tournament, you’re telling me that the second-place team in this league doesn’t belong in the NCAA tournament? I think there would be a realistic argument for us.”

Maybe so, Mark, but your final point is the best:

“But if we get to the championship game, you might as well win it.”

Indeed.

h/t AJC

Odiase to Texas Tech

Some negative news on the recruiting front:

Georgia had a scholarship open up this week, but it will not go to Norense Odiase, a big man who visited Georgia recently.

Odiase, a Florida prep school player who played high school ball in Texas, will instead be going to Texas Tech, he announced via social media on Friday.

Odiase looks as raw as can be in his video, but he's a big body, and that's exactly what Georgia needs next year.

Mark Fox takes a lot of criticism for his recruiting, but it's really his post recruiting that has been sub-par.  Add this to the list of near misses.

h/t Seth Emerson

On the Officiating

The officiating last night was bad.

Despite the fact that the two worst calls of the night - the blocking call on Charles Mann and the...something call on Kenny Gaines - went against Georgia, I think the bad was at least balanced.

It's clear that officials are still struggling with the freedom of movement point of emphasis (it is not  a new rule), but I don't think that was it.  This particular group of officials just had a bad night.

It all came to a head with the charge call and the ensuing technical foul.  The officials didn't even agree on the call, initially.  I believe it was Pat Adams (the head dope last night) who overruled and made the blocking call.

After that point, the referees felt they had to call everything, and that's exactly what they did...until the last minute and a half when they swallowed their whistles.  Baffling.

The good news is, the officiating (and the technical) didn't cost Georgia the game.  The great news is, we now have this picture forever:










Photo credit:  AJC

Survive and Advance

I was only able to listen on radio, so more on the game after I've had a chance to see it, but a 2-point win is good enough.

I still don't think a win tomorrow gets us in the tournament, but I know for a fact that a loss eliminates us.  Might as well win and make the committee say no.

Tonight's win almost certainly gets us a berth in the NIT, so we should get to watch some postseason basketball for the first time in 3 years.  That will be nice, but there's no sense talking about it yet.

Congratulations to the Dawgs.  One at a time.  Survive and advance.

Attendance Woes

Basketball attendance is down in the SEC.

The most surprising thing about that list?  South Carolina's attendance is up 17%.  If you've watched much Gamecock basketball this year, you know that's a hard number to explain.

Georgia is up 4%.  Make of that what you will.  I doubt it has McGarity doing cartwheels around Butts-Mehre though.

There is one bit of good news:

Potential NIT home games could still impact the SEC average.

I guess that's the consolation prize for filling up the NIT...

h/t Jon Solomon

Marshall's Angry

Ole Miss it is.

Those who believe we're on a tournament bubble should be happy about this pairing.  A win over Ole Miss helps our RPI a lot more than a win over Mississippi State.  Those like me who believe we have to win the SEC tournament to dance are a bit disappointed that MSU wasn't able to hold on last night...

I won't provide any in depth preview here.  I will just say that, on paper, Georgia should win this game.

Ole Miss has Marshall Henderson, Jarvis Summers, and not much else.  If you asked him who defends him the toughest in the SEC, Marshall Henderson would probably say Kenny Gaines - assuming he was feeling honest.

Henderson and Gaines are the key to this game.  I truly believe the winner of that match-up will be on the winning team.

Henderson, as usual, will be the most dangerous player on the court.  His ability to get hot and hit bad shots sets him apart in our league.  With that said, Gaines is a (much) better defender, takes better shots, and has been shooting close to 60% from 3-point range over the last month.

Expect Georgia to come out sluggish.  This often happens when a team that hasn't played in almost a week plays a team that played less than 24 hours ago.  However, if Kenny can continue his hot streak, Mann and Thornton just need to be their steady selves for Georgia to play again on Saturday.

Oh, and a partisan crowd in the dome wouldn't hurt.  Unfortunately, I am travelling tonight and will not be able to support the team in person.  If you find yourself with nothing to do, go scalp some tickets and yell for me.

Bubble Watch

The ESPN ticker shows Lunardi's bubbles by conference, and Georgia is in there.  I can't find any evidence online so I have nowhere to link.

I just don't buy it.  Take a look at Georgia's resume.  According to RealTimeRPI.com, the Bulldogs have two wins against the Top 50, but only because Missouri is #50.  The next closest are Arkansas at #60 and LSU (x2) at #71.

Perhaps if Missouri and Arkansas meet in the finals on their half of the bracket and Georgia makes it to Sunday that would be enough.  I still think we have to win the whole shooting match.

Evaluating Fox: Postseason Play

As Georgia approaches the SEC tournament, I believe Mark Fox is still coaching for his job.  Common wisdom in the fan base seems to be that his job is secure, but I am not so sure.  I think it's worthwhile to find some tangible facts and figures Greg McGarity might use as he makes his decision. 

If my boss were to can me tomorrow, I'd want to know why, and while she'd be under no obligation to give me a reason, I hope the decision would be more than a gut feeling.

Likewise, over the next few days, I'll take a look at some facts, and I'll try to decide if they suggest another year for Fox is warranted, or whether it's time to go in a different direction.  I will deliver a verdict based on each individual metric.  Then at the end of this series, I'll give my opinion as to whether or not Fox should be retained.

Today's metric:  postseason play.

The numbers:  1 NCAA tournament berth (10 seed), 0-1 postseason record, likely 2014 NIT berth

The expectation:  I mentioned this in a previous post:  the expectation at a school with the athletic pedigree of the University of Georgia should be an annual invite to the NCAA tournament.  Period.  You can spare me the "football school" talk because it just doesn't matter.  Georgia basketball was beginning to thrive in Jim Harrick's last two years despite it's status as a second-class citizen.  If a "football school" like Florida can do it, should Georgia expect any less?

The reality:  I am the king of optimists, and only twice during Fox's tenure have I entered the season believing we had a shot at the tournament (2009-10, 2010-11).  To his credit, one of those teams did squeak in.  The other years I've been left hoping for an NIT berth or an unlikely SEC tournament run.

The verdict*:  Fire him.

* Again, the verdict is based only on this metric, and only at this point in time.  A 2014 NCAA berth obviously changes things.

NIT

The thing about all these conference tournament upsets is that, every time a top seed loses, that's a spot in the NIT that Georgia won't be getting.  The reality is that a team like Georgia needs absolute calm in the conference tourneys...except for the SEC, of course...

h/t ESPN

Roster Management

John Cannon is transferring:

“I have decided to transfer from the University of Georgia Basketball program to consider other opportunities to play basketball and get my degree,” Cannon said.  “I want to thank Georgia for the opportunity and support, especially my teammates who mean the world to me.  The timing for wanting my transfer allows me to get a head start on looking at the options that may be available. I want to wish everyone at Georgia the best, and I’m excited about the possibilities ahead.”

Best of luck to the young man.  I sincerely hope he finds some playing time wherever he ends up.

As for the impact to Georgia, here's what Mark Fox had to say:

“I’d like to wish John the best as he continues his career,” Fox said.  “I certainly understand his desire for more opportunities for playing time elsewhere.  We appreciate his contributions to the program over the past three years.”

What Mark Fox actually meant was, "This frees up another scholarship.  That means I have one to burn on a 2014 project big man and I can still go after the 2015 studs in the state of Georgia."

I wouldn't doubt this idea was planted in John's mind by someone on staff.  The head football coach at Alabama would be proud.

h/t www.georgiadogs.com

The Kentucky Way

If there's hope for the Bulldogs, much of it lies in the fact that Charles Mann, Kenny Gaines, and Brandon Morris are all sophomores, and none are likely to leave early for the NBA.

One-and-dones are nice from a talent standpoint, but when that's most of your team, the results can be vary wildly:

Kentucky, which has lost three of four, dropped out from 25th, the fourth preseason No. 1 to fall out of the poll in the same season.

Many at Kentucky called this year's haul the "greatest recruiting class ever assembled" without a hint of hyperbole.  Each player may ultimately have a wonderful career - in college or, more likely, in the NBA - but winning something with that kind of team is not always as easy as it sounds.

The hope is that Mark Fox has set Georgia up for future sustained success.  Fox's recruiting (which will be discussed at length in a future post), while not off the charts, has not been as bad as many make it out to be.

One thing a reliance on early entries does is it gives you more room for error.  If you bring in five blue chip guys, odds are good that three or four of them are going to pan out.  If they don't, though, you have to start over the following season.

In Georgia's case, the challenge now is to supplement the talent that's already there.  Fox has to keep bringing in the Mann's and Gaines's of the world, but he also has to lock down better role players.  The icing on the cake would be the occasional early entry.

A good example of this is the 2010-11 team that almost was.  In retrospect, Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie probably should have stayed for their fourth year.  If they had, here's the lineup Georgia could have trotted out:

• PG - Gerald Robinson
• SG - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
• SF - Travis Leslie
• PF - Trey Thompkins
• C - Donté Williams
• Bench - Nemanja Djurisic
• Bench - Dustin Ware
• Bench - Marcus Thornton
• Bench - Sherrard Brantley

A Final Four contender?  Probably not, but the Sweet 16 would not have been out of the question.  That's a top 25 team that could have played with anyone in the SEC.

h/t ESPN

Expectation and Reality

Good read from Dean Legge today on expectations for Georgia basketball.  This one gets tossed around on message boards all the time, and he sums it up nicely:

Is being forced to win the SEC Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament really where Georgia fans want their basketball program to be year in and year out?

The answer, of course, is no.  The nature of people (especially in sports) is to be reactionary, and currently the tide has shifted in favor of Mark Fox.  Whereas in December the man couldn't have coached himself out of a cardboard box (according to most), now the guy can coach with the best of them (according to most).

What has changed?  A big factor is the competition, which has nothing to do with Fox.  The SEC sits at 7th in conference RPI rankings.  There are only 3 SEC teams with a top 50 RPI, and each of those teams handled Georgia easily.

Then consider the conference scheduling.  Georgia did not host any of those games.  At first blush that may seem unfair, but the tradeoff was getting three winnable games at home.  Would you have traded getting Florida at home for going on the road to Ole Miss?  I doubt it.

But let's get back to the subject at hand.  Legge lays out the cold, hard truth.  Georgia needs to win the SEC tournament to go dancing:

The sad reality is that for the last decade – with the exception of the 2011 season – that’s just where Georgia has been, and that is where the Dawgs are this season.  Either Georgia will string together three wins in a row at the SECs or there will be no ticket to the Big Dance.

The Fox supporter will say that he was responsible for the one season in which the Dawgs punched their ticket before the SEC tournament started.  The skeptic will remember that he is also responsible for four of the other seasons as well.

At an athletic powerhouse like Georgia, the expectation should be a tournament berth every year.  Period.  The reality, of course, will fall short (even at a school like Kentucky), but the expectation should not waver.

The fact that the fan base believes Mark Fox has saved his job (McGarity's is the only opinion that matters, and he has remained mostly silent) leads to one of two conclusions:

1. There is a belief that the combination of young talent and better basketball has set the stage for an annual trip to the NCAA Tournament.
2. The expectations have fallen such that a double-bye in the conference tourney and a likely NIT bid is enough for the program to be called successful.

I can't speak for most of the Fox supporters, but I do worry that it's a little bit of both.

Addendum:

I'd be remiss if I didn't point out this line in the article - a personal pet peeve of mine:

Spare me that nonsensical false argument about coaching – either you win or you don’t. TV commentators – do us all a favor and quit telling us how every single basketball coach in the country is a great coach or doing a “great job”.

Commentators say that because they don't want their pregame interviews to be awkward.  Most assuredly, every coach is not doing a great job...

h/t Dean Legge

I'll Take What He Has

Billy Donovan thinks teams that play on Sunday shouldn't have to play again until Friday:

If Donovan's team advances to the SEC tournament final this week in Atlanta, the Gators would play three games in three days. Florida would follow with a relatively short week considering it would have to return to Gainesville and then travel to Orlando a few days later.

"That's a lot, in my opinion," Donovan said.

 I think I agree with him, but as a Georgia basketball fan, sign me up.  File this one under "nice problems to have."

h/t ESPN

The Curious Case of Mr. Fox

Fire him or extend him.  There can be no middle ground.

Mark Fox is currently under contract through the 2016 season.  In order to effectively recruit (hold that thought), it is common wisdom that a coach needs to be under contract for at least 3 more years.  More is better.

Anything less, and it is hard to look a recruit in the eyes and ask him to give you 4 years.  It also sets the table for anyone out there doing negative recruiting.  "Sign at UGA if you want, but you won't be playing for Mark Fox in two years."

Coming into this season, it seemed fairly cut and dry:  NCAA tournament or bust.  It's funny how quickly black and white can blend to gray.

Greg McGarity still has a decision to make.  If he believes Fox has had enough time to get this program turned around, he has to fire him and start over, because the turnaround is not complete.  If, however, he sees enough progress to keep Fox around, he has to extend Fox's contract enough to help his recruiting efforts while controlling the salary and buyout.

Over the next few days, we'll look at some of these decision points - wins/losses, recruiting, attendance, etc.  In the mean time, Mark Fox has to put all this out of his mind.  He has a tournament (or two?) to prepare for.

Rock the Steg

Here's what I know about Georgia basketball:

1. The history is spotty.
2. The recruiting is challenging.
3. The fans are fickle.
4. The success is often fleeting.
5. The apathy is often overwhelming.

I was a freshman at the University of Georgia in 1999.  The first basketball game I attended was against Tennessee State (yes, I had to look that up).  I paid $1, walked in with my brother 15 minutes before the game started, sat down in about the fifth row at the free throw line, and was hooked.

By my senior year, I had to get to Stegeman Coliseum 2.5 hours early just to get my courtside seats.  Sellouts were common and national TV was a reality.  Dick Vitale came to Athens!  Ezra Williams threes were blowing the roof off the building.

So here's what else I know about Georgia basketball:  if you build it, they will come.  You can call Georgia a football school all you want, but if the basketball team is winning, there will be butts in the seats.  The talent in the Atlanta area is staggering, and Georgia can be successful on the hardwood.

It's time to take the lid off of this program.  It's time to Rock the Steg!