Silence

The coaching dominoes have begun to fall, and out of Butts-Mehre we have...silence.

I have said here in the past that the worst thing Greg McGarity could do is nothing, and nothing is what we have so far.  Between firing and extension, the latter now seems much more likely.

So what's the hold up?

It is pure speculation, but there could be some disconnect between what Mark Fox and his agent want and what McGarity is willing to give.  Fox may be looking to shore up the buyout clause for the next contract, whereas Georgia probably wants to keep that figure manageable.

I do think we'll see news of an extension soon.  My guess is three more years with an increase to around $2 million per year.  That would send the message to potential recruits that Fox is not going anywhere and quiet - though certainly not quash - the negative recruiting.

Evaluating Fox: Postseason Play

As Georgia approaches the SEC tournament, I believe Mark Fox is still coaching for his job.  Common wisdom in the fan base seems to be that his job is secure, but I am not so sure.  I think it's worthwhile to find some tangible facts and figures Greg McGarity might use as he makes his decision. 

If my boss were to can me tomorrow, I'd want to know why, and while she'd be under no obligation to give me a reason, I hope the decision would be more than a gut feeling.

Likewise, over the next few days, I'll take a look at some facts, and I'll try to decide if they suggest another year for Fox is warranted, or whether it's time to go in a different direction.  I will deliver a verdict based on each individual metric.  Then at the end of this series, I'll give my opinion as to whether or not Fox should be retained.

Today's metric:  postseason play.

The numbers:  1 NCAA tournament berth (10 seed), 0-1 postseason record, likely 2014 NIT berth

The expectation:  I mentioned this in a previous post:  the expectation at a school with the athletic pedigree of the University of Georgia should be an annual invite to the NCAA tournament.  Period.  You can spare me the "football school" talk because it just doesn't matter.  Georgia basketball was beginning to thrive in Jim Harrick's last two years despite it's status as a second-class citizen.  If a "football school" like Florida can do it, should Georgia expect any less?

The reality:  I am the king of optimists, and only twice during Fox's tenure have I entered the season believing we had a shot at the tournament (2009-10, 2010-11).  To his credit, one of those teams did squeak in.  The other years I've been left hoping for an NIT berth or an unlikely SEC tournament run.

The verdict*:  Fire him.

* Again, the verdict is based only on this metric, and only at this point in time.  A 2014 NCAA berth obviously changes things.

The Curious Case of Mr. Fox

Fire him or extend him.  There can be no middle ground.

Mark Fox is currently under contract through the 2016 season.  In order to effectively recruit (hold that thought), it is common wisdom that a coach needs to be under contract for at least 3 more years.  More is better.

Anything less, and it is hard to look a recruit in the eyes and ask him to give you 4 years.  It also sets the table for anyone out there doing negative recruiting.  "Sign at UGA if you want, but you won't be playing for Mark Fox in two years."

Coming into this season, it seemed fairly cut and dry:  NCAA tournament or bust.  It's funny how quickly black and white can blend to gray.

Greg McGarity still has a decision to make.  If he believes Fox has had enough time to get this program turned around, he has to fire him and start over, because the turnaround is not complete.  If, however, he sees enough progress to keep Fox around, he has to extend Fox's contract enough to help his recruiting efforts while controlling the salary and buyout.

Over the next few days, we'll look at some of these decision points - wins/losses, recruiting, attendance, etc.  In the mean time, Mark Fox has to put all this out of his mind.  He has a tournament (or two?) to prepare for.