The situation

The Numbers

CBSSports RPI: 72

ESPN BPI: 54
RPIForecast.com: 72

CBS Bracketology: Out

ESPN Bracketology: Next 4 out

 
The Resume

Good Wins: Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Ole Miss, @South Carolina, Alabama

Bad Losses: @Auburn

The Schedule

Potential Top 50 Wins: Kentucky (neutral)

Potential Bad Losses: MIssissippi State (neutral)

What It All Means

Georgia is not an NCAA Tournament team.  Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

The fact that Lunardi has Georgia in his "Next 4 Out" category is a head-scratcher, and it may make you feel good, but despite being the most high-profile bracketologist out there, he's far from the most accurate.  Reality tells us that Georgia's resume just isn't very good:

• 0-5 against the top 50 (that's bad)
• 5-11 against the top 100 (that's very mediocre)
• Loss to #162 Auburn (that's terrible)
• Best wins against South Carolina twice (ok), Georgia Tech (resurgent, but not sexy), and Alabama (meh)

That's not to say the Dawgs can't play their way in - they certainly can.  I just don't want anyone thinking knocking off Mississippi State on Thursday or even South Carolina on Friday is enough to punch a ticket.  20 wins continues to be the magic number for this team, and that would almost certainly mean knocking off Kentucky in the semifinals in Nashville.

Possible, right?  Sure.  Probable?  Not so much.  As HeckWithTeck shows, Mark Fox is tough to beat in game 1, but has never won 2 games in the SEC Tournament, let alone 3.

It didn't have to be this way.  If you want to ruin your Monday, head over to the RPI wizard and play around a bit.  Had Georgia simply won at Auburn they'd have an RPI right at 60, and two wins in Nashville would probably have them dancing.  Had Georgia also won at home over Florida, the RPI would be in the 30's and a single win in Nashville would punch their ticket.

Or how about this?  Win the Chattanooga game (tons of missed free throws), the Kansas State game (blown lead and a missed goaltending call), and the Ole Miss road game (blown lead and missed travel call) and Georgia has an RPI in the 20's and is playing for seeding.  I'm going to stop before I bring myself to tears.

When you're a program like Georgia, every single game matters.  Last year a slow start cost Georgia a few seeds and left them matched up with Final Four-bound Michigan State.  This year it likely cost them a chance to play in the tournament at all.  It's something Mark Fox has to fix, or the ceiling on the program may be stuck in place.

[Georgia Basketball Blog]