Expectation and Reality

Good read from Dean Legge today on expectations for Georgia basketball.  This one gets tossed around on message boards all the time, and he sums it up nicely:

Is being forced to win the SEC Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament really where Georgia fans want their basketball program to be year in and year out?

The answer, of course, is no.  The nature of people (especially in sports) is to be reactionary, and currently the tide has shifted in favor of Mark Fox.  Whereas in December the man couldn't have coached himself out of a cardboard box (according to most), now the guy can coach with the best of them (according to most).

What has changed?  A big factor is the competition, which has nothing to do with Fox.  The SEC sits at 7th in conference RPI rankings.  There are only 3 SEC teams with a top 50 RPI, and each of those teams handled Georgia easily.

Then consider the conference scheduling.  Georgia did not host any of those games.  At first blush that may seem unfair, but the tradeoff was getting three winnable games at home.  Would you have traded getting Florida at home for going on the road to Ole Miss?  I doubt it.

But let's get back to the subject at hand.  Legge lays out the cold, hard truth.  Georgia needs to win the SEC tournament to go dancing:

The sad reality is that for the last decade – with the exception of the 2011 season – that’s just where Georgia has been, and that is where the Dawgs are this season.  Either Georgia will string together three wins in a row at the SECs or there will be no ticket to the Big Dance.

The Fox supporter will say that he was responsible for the one season in which the Dawgs punched their ticket before the SEC tournament started.  The skeptic will remember that he is also responsible for four of the other seasons as well.

At an athletic powerhouse like Georgia, the expectation should be a tournament berth every year.  Period.  The reality, of course, will fall short (even at a school like Kentucky), but the expectation should not waver.

The fact that the fan base believes Mark Fox has saved his job (McGarity's is the only opinion that matters, and he has remained mostly silent) leads to one of two conclusions:

1. There is a belief that the combination of young talent and better basketball has set the stage for an annual trip to the NCAA Tournament.
2. The expectations have fallen such that a double-bye in the conference tourney and a likely NIT bid is enough for the program to be called successful.

I can't speak for most of the Fox supporters, but I do worry that it's a little bit of both.

Addendum:

I'd be remiss if I didn't point out this line in the article - a personal pet peeve of mine:

Spare me that nonsensical false argument about coaching – either you win or you don’t. TV commentators – do us all a favor and quit telling us how every single basketball coach in the country is a great coach or doing a “great job”.

Commentators say that because they don't want their pregame interviews to be awkward.  Most assuredly, every coach is not doing a great job...

h/t Dean Legge