Evaluating Fox: Wins and Losses

Let's continue trying to find some tangible facts and figures Greg McGarity might use as he makes his decision on whether or not to retain Mark Fox.

As a reminder, we're trying to decide if the numbers suggest another year for Fox is warranted, or whether it's time to go in a different direction.  I will deliver a verdict based on each individual metric.  Then at the end of this series, I'll give my opinion as to whether or not Fox should be retained.

Today's metric:  wins and losses.

The numbers:
2009-10:  14-17 (5-11)

2010-11:  21-12 (9-7)

2011-12:  15-17 (5-11)

2012-13:  15-17 (9-9)

2013-14:  20-13 (12-6) - overall win total could still grow

The expectation:  In line with the expectation that Georgia should be in the NCAA tournament discussion every year, between 18 and 22 wins should be the goal.  Other factors, like out-of-conference strength of schedule and overall conference RPI obviously play into the tournament committee's decision making, but getting around 20 wins should at least put a school like Georgia in the conversation.

The reality:  Fox has now hit this metric twice, but he has missed badly three times.  The trick here is that this past season has to be weighted a bit more heavily.  If the roster were senior-laden or losing players to the NBA, the outlook would be far more dire.  The reality is, this team won 20 games after losing a player early to the NBA, and all of the major contributors will be back next year.  The conference wins have also trended upward the past three seasons, and despite the relative weakness of the SEC, that can't be ignored.

The verdict*:  Retain him.

* Again, the verdict is based only on this metric, and only at this point in time.