Tuesday, March 3, 2015

How to beat Kentucky

You can find any number of posts and articles on the web about how to beat Kentucky.

The Wildcats are probably the safest bet to run the table and win the NCAA Championship in at least 20 years, so the reality is this:  if Kentucky plays well, Georgia cannot beat them.

This is what happens when someone abuses a very bad rule and hoards the best talent year after year.  Eventually they end up with a collection of players that is head and shoulders above the rest of the competition, and any semblance of competitive balance goes out the window.

With that said, Kentucky is still a team of 18, 19, and 20-year olds, and sometimes young men of that age have an off night.  If that happens tonight, here's how Georgia can win:
  1. Win the first eight minutes.  In their last five games, Tennessee is the only team that has managed to hang with Kentucky in the first half.  The other four games have started like this:  18-3, 30-4, 20-10, and 20-10.  If beating Kentucky is hard, coming back from double-digits is nearly impossible.  If you come out tight, you're dead.
  2. Shoot the ball.  As in, limit your pump fakes.  Against almost every team in the country, a pump fake is a good thing.  Against Kentucky, it's a death trap.  Their defense is suffocating, so if you find yourself with an open look, you must take it.  Any hesitation, and you've just allowed the defense to recover.
  3. Hit a lot of 3's.  It will probably take something like 12-14 3-point baskets for Georgia to win the game.  It's great that Marcus Thornton is back, but you don't beat Kentucky inside.  They have three big men who should be making NBA money right now.  Guys like Gaines, Djurisic, and Frazier are going to have to shoot lights out to give Georgia a chance.
  4. Win the rebounding battle.  This is always important, but it's extra important against the Wildcats.  They feast on the offensive glass.  Georgia did a good job of this in Rupp Arena.  It would behoove them to do it again tonight.
  5. Limit turnovers.  Georgia turned the ball over 16 times in the first meeting.  That's way too many.  That led to the Bulldogs taking nine less shots than Kentucky.  You don't beat good teams by shooting less than them.
On a normal night, 2 or 3 of those things might get you a win.  Tonight, it will take 4 or 5 - unless, of course, Kentucky plays well, in which case it's on to Auburn.

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