Game card: Missouri

Opponent:  Missouri
Record:  8-20 (2-13)
Best player:  Johnathan Williams III
Line:  Georgia -14

Why Georgia will win:  Missouri's record is pretty reflective of their talent level.  They just aren't very good.  Only two players average double-figure scoring, and they've yet to win a true road game.  There's no stat to point to that says Georgia shouldn't win this game.

Why Georgia will lose:  Missouri is coming off a win against an undermanned Florida team, and they have nothing to lose, so expect them to come out firing.  Namon Wright hit 6 3-pointers against Florida and should be playing with confidence.  Then there's Georgia.  Are they looking ahead to Kentucky?  Are they feeling a little too good about the win over Ole Miss?

What I think will happen:  Do we finally get to enjoy a blowout in conference play?  Not really.  Nothing is that easy with this team.  Georgia wins, though, 72-59.

There's hot, and then there's Rathan-Mayes hot

Remember that time J.J. Frazier got hot and scored 37 points against Mississippi State?  Turns out J.J.'s got nothing on Xavier Rathan-Mayes:

Wednesday night, for about five minutes, FSU guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes was unstoppable. He kept hitting buckets against Miami; at one point, he had 26 straight points without missing a shot.

When it was all over, he had dropped 30 points in under 5 minutes.

Of course, Florida State still managed to lose the game, and Rathan-Mayes "only" finished with 35...so I guess Frazier still has that going for him.

[Deadspin]

Bracketology 101

I continue to believe Georgia's NCAA Tournament situation is pretty simple:  one more regular season win gets them in (Missouri, Kentucky, or @Auburn).

That's one man's opinion, though, and hardly scientific.  The only opinion that matters is the collective opinion of the selection committee.  So what will they be looking at?

Jerry Palm is here to help.

The whole article is a good read, but I'll point out a few things of interest to Georgia fans.  Like this:

There is a common perception that how a team is playing at the end of the year is more important. Many people feel it should be. None of those people are on the committee. That used to be a factor, which is likely why many people still think it is. They used to track how teams performed in their last 12 games, but got rid of that several years ago. Now, it's hard to look at those team sheets and even determine how a team has done lately in your head because the dates of the games are not prominently displayed, or even formatted like a date. The committee is committed to the concept that every game counts equally no matter when it's played.

Because two of Georgia's worst losses came near the end of the season, this should be considered good news.  The losses to Auburn and South Carolina may be fresh in our minds, but they hold no additional weight just because they are recent.

Then there's this:

Injuries, suspensions, and things of that nature are reported separately, but rest assured, the committee knows all about whatever problems a team has had over the course of the season. It's not terribly important, though. In general, a team's profile is its profile. The committee will not assume a team would have won a game it lost had it been at full strength. They also will not ignore the game. There may be some slight seeding consideration given, but sometimes that doesn't even happen. Those adjustments tend to happen more to teams that have lost key players for the season rather than for a few games.

It's harder and harder to deny that injuries played at least some part in the losses to South Carolina (twice) and Auburn.  It may not seem like much, but if it's enough to move Georgia from, say, an 8 to a 7, that's enormous.

For fans, this is when it gets fun.  Georgia is playing for something, and that's exciting.  For players?  Tune it out.  Just win, baby.

[CBS Sports]

Ole Miss: post mortem

It's barely worth pointing out, but if anything resembling that Georgia team had shown up in Athens against South Carolina and Auburn, both would have been run out of town.

I am something like 0-5 in my predictions of late, and I'm not the least bit embarrassed.  Who can claim to understand this team?  The closest I can come to explaining things is this:  when their back is against the wall, this team responds, and when it's not, they're complacent.

You and I both knew Georgia needed another road win to feel good about their chances on Selection Sunday.  Don't think the team didn't know that as well.  The question is quickly becoming how to engage them when they feel like their season is not on the line...something Mark Fox might have to address as soon as this coming Saturday.

I admit I wasn't able to focus 100% of my attention on the game last night, so help me out if I missed anything:

• Put simply, if Gaines, Thornton, Djurisic, and Mann combine for 67 points, Georgia is going to win 9 out of 10 times.  This was the best we've seen these guys play as a unit in a month, so yeah, maybe they are getting a little healthier.
• I continue to believe that Gaines, in particular, has been the missing ingredient.  He's a rhythm shooter, and not having a healthy Marcus Thornton may have affected him more than anything.  However, we also saw some aggression out of him last night that has been lacking (boy did I want him to dunk that ball on the break).
• And one more thing about Gaines - his defense continues to be on point.  Stefan Moody - one of the hottest players in the conference - was 2/11 from behind the 3-point line, and it's not because he just had an "off night."  Georgia hit a lot of threes last night because they took good shots.  Moody missed a lot of threes because he was forced to take bad ones.
• Speaking of the 3-point shot, watching Ole Miss can be a bit painful.  All they want to do is jack up threes, and last night they hit just enough of them to avoid being run out of their own building.  It's not particularly fun to watch, and it's why I've long believed that moving the 3-point line back to where the NBA has it would help increase scoring.  It might stop guys like Martavious Newby (career 27%) from hoisting three of them on a night where Ole Miss really could have used him in the paint.
• Cameron Forte is starting to do some real work on the glass.  I like that.  I still wish Fox could convince him to stop trying to handle the ball, though.
• Tough night for Yante Maten from a foul standpoint, but I want to point out that he's made 15 of his last 19 free throw attempts.  That's worth commending.
• In fact, it was another solid night from the line for the whole team.  And don't look now, but Charles Mann is shooting > 80% from the stripe since the Tennessee game.
• Marcus Thornton should have a green light on shooting that 3-pointer from the top of the key.  He's developed that into a nice weapon.
• Did anyone doubt that Ole Miss was going to come back and make a game of it?  Georgia can turn a 10-point lead into a 2-point lead as efficiently as any team in the country.

Does this Missouri game look like a trap game, or what?  If Georgia decides they have time to feel good about themselves, or if they decide they can afford to look ahead to Kentucky, they will get beat.  Fox needs to have these guys locked in.  Time to finish the drill.

Rock the Steg PSA

Just remember, when you storm the court after the Bulldogs knock off Kentucky next week, keep your elbows to yourself.

[ESPN]

Game card: Ole Miss

Opponent:  Mississippi
Record:  19-8 (10-4)
Best player:  Stefan Moody
Line:  Ole Miss -4.5

Why Georgia will win:  They already did it once, right?  Apparently the Bulldogs are road warriors, now, taking care of business in College Station and Tuscaloosa.  They are inching back towards health, and Marcus Thornton, in particular, is looking like his old self.  Also, believe it or not, 5 of Mississippi's losses have come at home.

Why Georgia will lose:  Since the loss in Athens, Ole Miss is 8-1, and the only loss was by 1 point to a ranked Arkansas team.  It has been addition by subtraction, as the "loss" of Marshall Henderson has allowed guys like Moody and Jarvis Summers to shine.  Moody, in particular, has been on fire of late, and he does not miss from the free throw line.  Georgia won by largely holding Summers in check during the first meeting, but that's not likely to happen again.

What I think will happen:  Your guess is as good as mine.  Ole Miss is hot, and I'm betting they stay that way.  Dawgs lose 68-61.

The situation

The Numbers

CBSSports RPI:  37

ESPN BPI:  30

CBS Bracketology:  10 seed (on the bubble)

ESPN Bracketology:   9 seed

 
The Resume

Good Wins:  Seton Hall, @Kansas State, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, @Texas A&M, @Alabama

Bad Losses:  @Georgia Tech, Auburn, South Carolina

The Schedule

Potential Top 50 Wins:  @Ole Miss, Kentucky

Potential Bad Losses:  Missouri, @Auburn

What It All Means

Georgia Tech had a chance to do Georgia a pretty big favor last night by beating the shorthanded Louisville Cardinals and potentially working their way back into the top 100.  Instead, they blew a 13-point second half lead and lost at home.

Fortunately, Kansas State did what Tech could not.  They beat Kansas at home and slid right back into the top 100.

One of the best things Georgia has going for them is their record in true road games:  6-4.  The committee cares about this, and a road win early in the season (Kansas State) holds just as much weight as a bad loss at home late in the season (Auburn).

You'll also notice the ESPN BPI looks a little better than the RPI.  That's because BPI takes injuries into account, and it's hard to talk about this Georgia team without mentioning the injuries.  Regardless of how you feel about Mark Fox, the season would probably look quite different had a few guys stayed healthy.

I continue to believe a win over Missouri and any other team (in the regular season) will get Georgia into the tournament.  If Georgia goes 1-3, then they'll enter the SEC tournament with work to do.  If they lose to Missouri, they're likely out unless they beat Kentucky and win a game on the road.

This is all speculation, of course.  The good news is that Georgia is in the hunt.  The bad news is there is work to be done, and it just shouldn't have to be this way...

Take a day off

There is a lot to discuss.  Tournament resumes!  Coaching decisions!  Injuries!  Marcus Thornton's haircut!

However, it's Monday, so I propose we discuss none of that.  Instead, let's watch this video of Kenny Gaines dunking all over Shannon Hale:

First, I'd like to appreciate Marcus Thornton's beautiful bounce pass.  The video title tries to give the assist to Mann, but it was clearly Marcus.

Second, I'd like you to enjoy this very important screenshot I got:

Happy Monday, everyone.

[ESPN]

Alabama: post mortem

True story:  as Cameron Forte took that pass, put the ball on the floor, and started driving, I yelled, "God, no!" so loudly I scared my dog into hiding.  I had to coax him back out after the game was over.

Half of me wonders how Georgia won that game, and the other half wonders why Alabama was even close.  At this point, these guys better go to the tournament to compensate me for all of the premature aging they've caused this season:

• Forgive me if I lacked confidence in the last seconds in Tuscaloosa.  Let's just say the basketball gods owed us this one...
• I guess we should start with Forte, who put together another fantastic stat line.  In just 21 minutes, he went for 8/10/1 with just a single turnover.  He's the kind of guy that's going to provide real, quality depth next season when everyone else is (hopefully) healthy.
• Of course, his shot (that, yes, went in) at the end of the first half was just terrible.
• Great game for Nemi, and it should have been even better.  Alabama had no answer for him down low to start the game, and if not for what seemed like a really fast 3-second call, he would have scored on Georgia's first three possessions.  I have no idea why Georgia stopped feeding him.  You think he wants to experience the big dance?
• Yante Maten brought the block party again, and none was bigger than the one with 1 second left.  Great job by Gaines of contesting without fouling, and an even better job by Maten of hustling back and throwing the shot out of bounds.  Even with time on the clock, the game was effectively over at that point.
• How frustrating was that first half?  Goergia held Alabama to 11 points at the under-4 media timeout, and they were only up 8 - a lead that evaporated almost immediately, I might add.  This team is allergic to double-digit leads, as the same thing happened in the second half.  I don't know what it is, but the Bulldogs just haven't figured out how to kick an opponent when they're down.
• I thought the back-to-back dunk (awesome) and 3-pointer might get Kenny going, but no such luck.  His defense remains dynamite, though.
• I won't even mention Georgia's free throws.  I will say it was nice to see the other team shoot themselves in the foot at the line for once.
• Normally I think Mark Fox's technicals are tactical.  This one was not.  It was a genuine outburst over a really, really bad no-call.
• The 3-on-1 break that ended with Forte getting his shot blocked was frustrating.  You absolutely have to get points there.
• Good job by Frazier getting to the rim.  Now he has to start finishing.
• The box score on this one is remarkably even.  Georgia made one more field goal, tied Alabama in rebounds, had one more assist, tied Alabama in blocks, turned it over two less times, and committed one more foul.  I guess that's to be expected in a 1-point game.
• If I have bad dreams tonight, they're likely to feature Charles Mann against the press.  Or spotting up at the 3-point line.  He went 7/8 from the free throw line, though, and his late game drives were courageous.
• By the way, that fifth foul on Marcus?  Should have been on Nemi...
• You have to figure Anthony Grant's seat is very, very hot right now.  After this loss, the NIT is probably the best-case scenario for Alabama unless they win the SEC Tournament (which they won't).

Great team win on the road.  Unfortunately there's very little time to enjoy it.  Georgia has made their bed, and now they must lie in it.  A win Wednesday night in a very, very difficult game in Oxford will all but punch the ticket.  A loss will have us on the edge of our seats until the last game of the season.

Game card: Alabama

Opponent:  Alabama
Record:  16-10 (6-7) 
Best player:  Levi Randolph
Line:  Alabama -3.5

Why Georgia will win:  Georgia seems to be at their best when their backs are against the wall.  J.J. Frazier should be back, and it's about time Marcus Thornton rounded into pre-concussion form.  Alabama hasn't exactly been unbeatable at home, and Georgia is 5-4 in true road games.

Why Georgia will lose:  The wheels really seem to be coming off for the Bulldogs right now.  With just two wins in their last six games, they face an Alabama team with something to play for.  Injuries have taken their toll on Georgia, and while they hung tough for a while, winning on the road in Tuscaloosa is probably too much to ask at this point.

What I think will happen:  Georgia actually matches up nicely with the Tide.  It won't matter.  Alabama wins 69-59, and things start to get really uncomfortable around Butts-Mehre.

PWD speaks

It doesn't happen often, but when Paul Westerdawg speaks at the Georgia Sports Blog, it's always worth listening.

Yesterday, he said what a lot of us are thinking:

At this point, there's an incredibly shrinking opportunity to debate Mark Fox's future. It appears that he hasn't signed his contract extension from last Spring.  Now he likely won't sign it due to buyout implications which are rumored to impact him negatively in the new unsigned doc.   His old contract ends after the 2016 tourney.  Buying him out at $3.4 million $1.7 million or less is more than manageable. (I checked and the buyout is lower than I thought. #JournalismMath)

So...in my opinion and the opinion of others I talk to...he has to make the tourney or he's out.  That means he likely needs to win 4 more games.  There are 5 regular season games and at least 1 SECT game.

That includes 3 remaining road games and a home game against UK.  Other than UK, the opponents are beatable, but so were Auburn (home) and South Carolina (home and road).  Those are horrible basketball teams.

The only debate left is....what happens if he makes the tourney and loses first round?  Is 6 years without a single NCAA tourney win worth rewarding?  Can he find another job before McGarity fires him after the NCAAs?

That's the question.

Fox's future is a conversation I really don't want to have until after the season, but that's just me.  We all have a pretty good idea of where this season is going, but the body of work isn't complete yet.

I also disagree slightly on what it will take to get in the tournament.  I continue to believe 3 more regular season wins will do it.  That's splitting hairs, though, and not really the point.

The buyout implications of not signing the extension have been eating at me, so I'm glad Paul brings it up.  Did that play into Fox's decision not to sign or is it simply a "happy" coincidence for Fox now that it looks like his team is going to miss the tournament yet again.

His final question is one I hadn't even considered.  My operating assumption was that a tournament berth would save his job, period.  But is that really enough in year 6?

At this point, it almost seems like wishful thinking that we'll even be having that debate in a month.

[Georgia Sports Blog]

Pivotal play

I got to thinking:  when's the last time Georgia actually played well?

It's an important question, because the pattern with Mark Fox teams has been to start ugly and finish strong.  With the Bulldogs fading fast, it looks like they're going to buck that trend in a big way.

The answer, it turns out, is January 27th at home against Vanderbilt.  Georgia capped off a 5-game winning streak with a 70-62 win over the Commodores.  What else happened in that game?  This:

It doesn't look like much, but that was the flagrant foul that sent Marcus Thornton to the bench for two games with a concussion.  Since then, Georgia is 2-4 and has only scored over 60 points twice (once in a loss).

The injuries have been bad, but it looks like the whole season may have turned on that one play.

Mind games

Take a moment and digest this:

“We’re not hungry anymore,” Mann said. “We’re settled with where we are now.”

Why is that?

“I have no idea,” he said.

It's quotes like that, moreso even than the game results, that have me worried this morning.

Basketball is played as much between the ears as on the court.  At some point, this Georgia team decided they were good enough to show up and win.  They're not.

I have no idea how a team that has lived life on the edge for much of the season could have decided they were ok to coast.  I look to the coach in instances like this, because it's his job to have his team in the right mindset.  An off game?  That happens.  Two in a row?  That can't.

Fox is saying the right things, at least:

“We made it harder on ourselves,” Fox said. “We’ve got no one to blame but the person in the mirror. We can still accomplish what we set out to do. We made it much harder. We could use our health as an excuse but that’s a cop-out. We’ve gotta grow up.”

We'll find out Saturday if anything is sinking in.

[Ledger-Enquirer]

South Carolina: post mortem

I can handle losing.  I am a UGA basketball fan, after all.

What I can't handle is seeing another team outwork my team, especially in our home gym.  South Carolina has absolutely nothing to play for, and they wanted that game more.  It is totally unacceptable.  Apparently at some point we decided we can just show up and win against bad teams.  Turns out that's far from true.

I don't want to hear about injuries; yes, Georgia has had a run of bad luck.  I don't want to hear about how hot South Carolina was; yes, they were red hot in the first half.  I don't want to hear about how bad the refs were; yes, they were awful.

In spite of all of that, if Georgia had showed up at the opening tip, the game would not have been close.

Instead, Georgia now accounts for half of South Carolina's SEC wins, and any tournament talk borders on ludicrous a week after the Bulldogs were seemingly a lock to get in:

• Another nice game for Cameron Forte, but did I really see him take a 3?  Never again, Cam.
• Charles Mann acquitted himself well, too, I thought.  Or maybe that was just in comparison with the rest of the team.  Seriously, though, he's just not a 3-point shooter, and he needs to accept that.  Finish the season, then hit the gym every day during the offseason and become a 3-point shooter.
• The disappearance of Kenny Gaines is beyond frustrating right now.  He came out aggressive and got to the basket three times in the first 10 minutes or so, then he faded away.  He works really hard on defense, and maybe that's affecting his offensive output.  I just don't know.
• You know who worked really hard on offense last night for Georgia?  No one.  Lots of standing around.  Apparently Frazier needs to be at the controls at this point.
• 10 shots combined for Thornton and Maten is not enough.  South Carolina is not that strong inside, so that's where Georgia's bread should have been buttered last night.  Instead, they combined for a meager 12 points on only 2 field goals.
• Maybe it's time to start finding some more shots for Taylor Echols.  He's shooting a solid 40% from behind the 3-point line this season.
• 9 missed free throws in a 6 point loss.  South Carolina only missed 1.  It's coachable, folks, it really is.
• Nice to see Kenny Paul Geno back out there.  I was going to harp on his lack of productivity until I saw his line.  6 rebounds (3 offensive) and a steal in 12 minutes.  Effort goes a long way.

I could go on, but my heart's not in it today.  What we're seeing is a pretty epic meltdown out of this team.  Alabama can now be considered a must-win game.  Three wins (not counting the SEC tournament) probably still gets Georgia into the tournament, but it's hard to imagine Georgia winning at Ole Miss or at home versus Kentucky.  That means at Alabama, home against Missouri, and at Auburn will have to do it.

That suddenly seems unlikely, doesn't it?  I've harped on the resilience of this team all year long.  We're about to find out if I was just blowing smoke.

The situation

The Numbers

CBSSports RPI:  32

ESPN BPI:  25

CBS Bracketology:  9 seed (on the bubble)

ESPN Bracketology:   8 seed

 
The Resume

Good Wins:  Seton Hall, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, @Texas A&M

Bad Losses:  @Georgia Tech, @South Carolina, Auburn

The Schedule

Potential Top 50 Wins:  @Ole Miss, Kentucky, @Alabama

Potential Bad Losses:  South Carolina, Missouri

What It All Means

How painful the loss to Auburn was depends on where you look.  CBS seems to think Georgia should be punished, pushing them from a virtual tournament lock all the way to a bubble team.  ESPN, on the other hand, says this:

Before this past weekend, Georgia built a strong enough resume that Saturday's 69-68 home loss to Auburn wasn't enough to make a dent. That is a credit to the solidity of the resume on offer.

I hope they're right, but I tend to think it was more damaging than that.

Part of the problem is the continued decline of teams like Seton Hall and Georgia Tech.

The Pirates were a big-time resume win at the time, but they are in the midst of a total meltdown (even punching an opponent last night).  Georgia Tech, despite a recent win over Clemson, seems firmly entrenched over 100 at this point.  Auburn, due to a win over a highly-ranked opponent on the road (ugh), got a nice RPI bump, but they are not going to crack the top 100.  Kansas State is barely hanging on, currently at 99.  Colorado is merely average.

I still think any combination of 3 more wins gets Georgia comfortably into the tournament.  That means either a home win over Kentucky or a road win at Bama or Ole Miss.  None of those are easy, even with a full roster (which Georgia does not have).

The dream before Saturday was a 6-seed.  That puts you in a nice position to do some damage and advance to the Sweet 16.  Now, barring a red hot finish, it's hard to see anything better than a 7-seed.

But now is not the time to worry about seeding.  Now is the time to get into the tournament.  A win tonight is a must.  Some help from others would be nice, too.  Here are the teams you should be rooting for (unless they're playing Georgia, of course):

1. Ole Miss
2. Texas A&M
3. Kansas State
4. Minnesota
5. Georgia Tech
6. Auburn (ugh)

The Dawgs seem unable to do anything without drama.  Their tournament chase is no different.  Win tonight, and we're set up for an exciting finish.  Lose, and we have big, big problems.

Game card: South Carolina

Opponent: South Carolina
Record:  12-12 (3-9)Best player:  Duane Notice
Line:  Georgia -6

Why Georgia will win:  Georgia's loss to Auburn was this year's how-did-that-happen home loss, so they should roll in Stegeman the rest of the way.  Even shorthanded, the Bulldogs are better than the Gamecocks.  Expect Kenny Gaines to play angry after he was beaten down the stretch by Auburn's KT Harrell.

Why Georgia will lose:  Ignoring the fact that Georgia has already lost to South Carolina, a thin Bulldogs team will be even thinner tonight without J.J. Frazier.  South Carolina is a perimeter team, so losing a perimeter player like Frazier does not bode well.  If Georgia is a sinking ship, this could be the torpedo that sends them to the bottom.

What I think will happen:  Literally nothing will surprise me tonight.  I expect a lethargic crowd and a struggling team.  I also think Georgia will rally and get a much needed win but, as usual, there will be drama.  Dawgs win 67-63.

2015-16 early season tournament

Here is a link to a page tracking all the early season, neutral site tournaments for the 2015-16 season.  Looks like Georgia has its spot.  Need help finding it?  Here's a hint:  search for "Las Vegas."

[www.bloggingthebracket.com]

Auburn: post mortem

I hate Auburn.

How much?  I root for Florida when they're playing Auburn.  Even in football.  So if this writing has some extra edge to it, you have my apologies.  Anything positive said about the Tigers will be done while fighting my gag reflex.

There is no sugarcoating that loss.  It was terrible.  There were two games left on the schedule that Georgia simply had to win, and that was one of them.  We'll get into the implications at a later time (hint:  Georgia's back on the bubble with one foot out), but for a team that thinks it's tournament-worthy, it was an inexcusable loss to a very bad team:

• Before we go all negative, great tribute to "Sweater Guy."  When I was in school, we called him "White Sweater Guy."  I've also heard him called "Jumping Jack Man."  He's since changed outfits and seats, but his loyalty has never wavered.  Georgia did everything but win the game for him.  Of course, he's been a season ticket holder for 31 years, so maybe a loss was actually more appropriate...*sigh*...
• Don't make the mistake of thinking that game was lost in the last 5 minutes.  It wasn't.  Georgia actually scored 11 points in those 5 minutes, which, 98% of the time, would be enough to hold a 9-point lead.  Auburn just got red hot (they didn't miss a shot the rest of the way).  It happens.  No, that game was lost in the first five minutes, when Georgia missed 4 layups and a dunk.  I don't know if it was lack of focus, or just bad luck, but you simply cannot have that when you're fighting for something.
• Georgia took 12 more shots than Auburn, had 7 more offensive rebounds, went 18-21 from the free throw line, and had 2 less turnovers.  That should equate to a 15 point win.
• The season, at this point, is going to come down to the guards.  Kenny showed flashes last night, but I suspect he'd tell you he's not playing well enough on the offensive end.  J.J. Frazier has mostly disappeared since his outburst at Mississippi State.  Charles Mann's struggles are well documented.  Thornton, Maten, and Forte are going to provide enough in the paint, but games will be won and lost with those guys.  If they don't get it figured out, expect an NIT berth or, best case, a quick exit from the tournament.
• Jumping passing lanes and dunking:  good Cam.  Turnaround, fadeaway baseline jumper:  bad Cam.
• However you feel about him, Cinmeon Bowers is fun to watch.  He's big, he's bulky, and he runs like a gazelle.  The man is actually dangerous in the open court.
• I'm not one to dredge up the past with these kids, but the FSU chant when Bowers was at the line actually showed good awareness by our student section.
• Actually, the whole crowd was great yesterday.  I hope everyone had fun despite the outcome.
• Did you think Georgia had a chance with 1.8 seconds left?  I didn't.  Trayvon Reed did absolutely nothing on the court - he went 10 minutes without a single rebound!  However, he is tough to get the ball in against.  It was a struggle all day.
• It's easy to see why kids like playing for Bruce Pearl.  He was up and down the bench all day congratulating the entire team when something went well.  At one point, Auburn scored out of a timeout, and Pearl went to everyone on the bench and high-fived them, yelling, "Points out of a timeout!"  He is about as opposite of Coach Fox as he could be.

The game came down to their best scorer against our best defender, and their scorer won.  Sometimes you just have to live with that.  It's the fact that the game was that close at all that is nauseating.

Nemi Djurisic deserves a tournament berth.  Marcus Thornton deserves (another) one too.  This means South Carolina is as close to a must-win game as there has been all season for Georgia.  Be there, and be loud.  They need you.

Game card: Auburn

Opponent:  Auburn
Record:  11-13 (3-8) 
Best player:  Cinmeon Bowers
Line:  Georgia -11

Why Georgia will win:  Auburn comes in having lost 7 out of 8, many by double figures.  The Tigers are going to get better under Bruce Pearl, but the talent isn't in place yet.  Georgia put together a really nice game in College Station where they limited turnovers and mental mistakes, and the result was a big 9-point road win.  If Gaines and Mann play well for a second game in a row, the Bulldogs should win comfortably.

Why Georgia will lose:  Make no mistake:  this is a dangerous Auburn team.  They went into LSU and won, and they just dropped 87 points on Arkansas in a loss.  When they're rolling they can score with anyone.  Cinmeon Bowers is a rebounding machine, and KT Harrell is lights out from 3-point land.  If either of those guys gets going, it could be a long afternoon.

What I think will happen:  I haven't heard yet if Antoine Mason (son of Anthony) will go today.  If he does, I don't see Georgia covering a line like that.  If he doesn't (and no one would blame him),the Bulldogs should roll.  I'll split the baby and say Georgia wins 75-69.

Jay Bilas fixes basketball

I like Jay Bilas.  I don't love him, but I like him.

I like him a lot more after yesterday.

In a two and a half minute tour de force of a video (I skipped the last 30 seconds), Bilas lays out three easy steps we can take to start fixing college basketball.  The headline only calls out the shot clock, but there is more.  Here's your summary:

1. Change the shot clock.  At 35 seconds, men's college basketball is the slowest game in the world.  The women use a 30-second clock, and the rest of the world uses a 24-second clock.  24 seconds is plenty of time to run a set and get a shot.  What happens today when a team can't get a good look out of their set?  With about 10 seconds left on the shot clock, the point guard pulls the ball out, stands around, and hoists a 3-pointer with 2 seconds left on the clock.  By changing the shot clock, you're not depriving a team of a chance at a good shot - you're just shaving off the time that is wasted before the desperation heave.
2. Go to quarters.  I don't actually agree with the specific change (halves are fine), but I do agree with its intent:  taking timeouts away from the coaches.  Be honest.  When a coach calls a timeout with 11:59 on the game clock, you cringe.  If the inbound pass is tipped back out of bounds after that stoppage, the game goes straight to a media timeout.  It's ridiculous.  My solution?  Three media timeouts per half (instead of the current 4), and one less full timeout for each coach.  It is typically 3 minutes from the moment a full timeout is called until the ball is back in play, so that alone cuts over 10 minutes from the longest games.  Even more important to me, the game feels far less choppy.  Basketball is a game of rhythm and runs.
3. Take the rules away from the coaches.  It's currently coaches sitting on the rules committee, and coaches are necessarily biased.  They will naturally look out for their interests over the interests of the game at large.  Where I really started pumping my fist is around the 2 minute mark when he starts talking about the block/charge call.  College basketball started down the "freedom of movement" road last year and then bailed, which is really unfortunate.  Watch an NBA game sometime and count how many times you see a defender try to draw a charge.  It almost never happens.  Why?  Because if they're in position, they're defending, and if they're out of position, they're fouling to prevent a layup or stepping out of the way to prevent a 3-point play.  Excessive charge calls discourage players from driving aggressively to the basket (bad for the game) and encourage defenders to try to draw a foul instead of challenging a shot (bad for the game).  It's time to get it fixed.

Jay Bilas is an important voice in college basketball, and when he talks, people listen.  In this case, let's hope those with the power to change things also have the will.

[ESPN]

The situation

How odd has this week been?  I completely forgot to do the "situation" post on Tuesday.  Instead, I posted a game card for the Texas A&M game which I thought was going to be played that night.  I actually panicked when I couldn't find the game on TV at 7.

So, hey, I'm an idiot.  But better late than never, right?

The Numbers

CBSSports RPI:  22

ESPN BPI:  21

CBS Bracketology:  9 seed

ESPN Bracketology:   8 seed

The Resume

Good Wins:  Seton Hall, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, @Texas A&M

Bad Losses:  @Georgia Tech, @South Carolina

The Schedule

Potential Top 50 Wins:  @Ole Miss, Kentucky, @Alabama

Potential Bad Losses:  Auburn, South Carolina, Missouri

What It All Means

The two bad losses are probably here to stay.  Georgia Tech is hovering right outside the top 100 after a (terrible) loss to Virginia Tech, and their schedule is brutal the rest of the way.  South Carolina finds itself in a similar situation.  If they beat us, their RPI would probably sneak back inside the top 100, but we'll hope that doesn't happen.

The ceiling for this team remains very high.  If they were to win out, they could conceivably end up as a 3 or 4 seed (not going to happen).  If they lose out, they could find themselves in the NIT (also not going to happen).

Winning one of the remaining road games and avoiding a home loss to Missouri are key.  Do those two things, and the only drama on selection Sunday will be where the Dawgs are seeded.

How symbolic...

Kim Anderson's plane had some trouble and was forced into an emergency landing.  He's perfectly fine, but I'll still avoid the obvious Mizzou basketball jokes.  This made me chuckle, though:

He told KOMU he heard a small rumble before the engine went out. He drove back to Columbia.

I bet he did.

[ESPN]

Texas A&M: post mortem

I hope you're not here to see me welcome Georgia to the 2015 NCAA Tournament.  I am not going to do that.  There is too much basketball to be played to throw jinxes like that around.

I will, however, reiterate how much I love this (endlessly aggravating) team.  They take a punch as well as any prize fighter out there.  Texas A&M raced to 12 points at the first media timeout.  Georgia had 8.  The refs called 4 fouls on one possession.  The Aggies got one point.  Kenny Gaines had 4 fouls with over 10 minutes left in the game.  Georgia extended their lead.

Georgia is beatable, but they will always make you earn it, and no matter what, you'll walk away respecting them:

• Marcus Thornton is a 33% 3-point shooter this year.  Part of that is because he only takes them when they're there (discounting the shot clock running down).  I have no problem with him taking one or two per game if they're open.
• Charles Mann, on the other hand, does not need to be taking 7 3-pointers in a game.  Ever.  He made the second one he took and that led to some over-confidence.  The rest of his stat line, however, is beautiful, including this gem:  4/0 assists to turnovers.
• None was bigger than the pass to Gaines in the corner.  Excellent vision to see Caruso cheat up and hit Kenny in the corner for the dagger.
• Big shot for Echols, too.
• I've run out of ways to say it, but the balance on this team is incredible.  Frazier and Thornton combined for 10 points, and Georgia won on the road (where A&M had yet to lose) by 9.
• Cam Forte is a sneaky-good passer.  No turnovers tonight, either.
• If we get that Kenny Gaines for the stretch run, we'll be ok.  If we get better than that, look out.
• Oh, and nice dunk, Kenny.  Very nice dunk.
• Georgia had less turnovers, took more shots, and had more rebounds than the Aggies.  It's hard to lose when you do that.
• Oh, and 75% from the free throw line.
• In fact, some circus shots by Texas A&M kept the game from being a blowout.  Caruso, in particular, finished some very difficult drives with points.
• Jalen Jones complaining about the officiating moments after the 4-foul possession was high comedy.
• So was the announcers' insistence that Alex Caruso might be the best passer in the SEC.  5 turnovers later, consider me unconvinced.
• After that 12 point outburst to start the game?  41 more over the last 36 minutes.  For the most part, Georgia made Texas A&M take uncomfortable shots, which is what good defense does.
• Did you see the postgame interview with Mark Fox?  If not, look it up.  Let's just say he left it all on the court tonight.

 As of right now, that's Georgia's second win against the top 50, and it came on the road.  I'm not convinced the Aggies will finish the season there, but they'll be close enough to count it as a good win.

If you're Georgia, you may be tempted to breathe a little easier.  Don't.  A dangerous Auburn team comes to town Saturday, and every remaining home game is critical.

Sinking ship

Georgia currently has only one win over a top 50 opponent, and that represents one of their biggest weaknesses from a resume standpoint.  For a while it looked like Seton Hall was guaranteed a spot in the top 50, but they are in the midst of a complete meltdown.  This doesn't help:

Sina, a 6-foot-2 New Jersey native, was averaging 7.0 points and 2.3 assists this season. He started 23 of 24 games, scoring nine points in 29 minutes against Georgetown on Tuesday.

Seton Hall didn't provide a reason for Sina's departure, only saying the sides had agreed to part ways.

All the more reason to get a win tonight in College Station.

[ESPN]

Game card: Texas A&M

Opponent:  Texas A&M
Record:  16-6 (7-3) 
Best player:  Danuel House
Line:  Texas A&M -3

Why Georgia will win:  Texas A&M's conference record is impressive, but their wins haven't exactly been against the cream of the crop.  A good win at LSU is the only one that came against the top half of the league.  Georgia, meanwhile, is battle tested and hungry.  They've been winning despite not even playing close to their best basketball.  If it finally clicks, look out.

Why Georgia will lose:  If Georgia was the surprise of the SEC last year, it's the Aggies this year.  They've ridden good defense and a balanced, just-good-enough offense to 7 early conference wins and a nice chance at making the big dance.  They're also undefeated at home.

What I think will happen:  This is a very, very even matchup.  If Kenny Gaines can shut down Danuel House, Georgia has a real shot to win.  With that said, go with the home team.  Aggies triumph 69-65.

The stretch run

I am of the belief that 4 more wins will punch Georgia's ticket to the tournament.  That means a .500 finish to conference play.

Using Daniel Shirley's latest power poll as a guide, Georgia's remaining schedule looks like this:

@ #2 Texas A&M

vs. #12 Auburn

vs. #13 South Carolina

@ #10 Alabama

@ #5 Ole Miss

vs. #14 Missouri

vs. #1 Kentucky

@ #12 Auburn

The equation changes for the worse if Georgia drops one of the home games against Auburn, South Carolina, or Auburn, and for the better if they knock off Kentucky, but you have to like the Bulldogs' chances as of right now.  Win a tough game on the road tomorrow night, and things will look downright rosy...

[Ledger-Enquirer]

Tennessee: post mortem

That was a bad loss.  If Georgia thinks it's a tournament team, it has to win games against teams like the Volunteers, especially at home.  56 points just isn't good enough, and 20 turnovers is an absolute disaster.  We may have just witnessed Georgia's tournament hopes slipping through their fingers.

Wait...what?  They won?  How is that possible?  There is no way that team I just watched beat a quality SEC opponent.  I guess sometimes the other team is just worse:

• Seriously, though, 20 turnovers?  Georgia now averages 13.8 per game, which is good for 80th in the country.  80th worst, I mean.  It makes you wonder how good this team could be if they valued the ball a little.  The fact that 11/18 of them belonged to Mann and Gaines is really concerning...
• Georgia took 18 less shots than Tennessee.  18!  If your goal is to make things way more difficult than they have to be, that's a good way to start.
• So why did they win?  You can start with the fact that J.J. Frazier and Kenny Gaines were the only Bulldogs who shot less than 50% from the field.  When they were able to hold on to the ball, Georgia was incredibly efficient on offense.  The ball made it inside the zone, and they got good looks all day.  If I remember correctly, Georgia only settled for 2 mid-range jumpers, and one of them was a good shot (Maten's miss from above the free throw line).
• Maten had himself another nice game, by the way.  I love how confident he is with that free throw line jumper.  He has the post moves of an upperclassman, and he's starting to rebound like a grown man.  Tack on another 3 blocks just for good measure.
• Keep shooting, J.J.  You're always one shot away from being hot.
• Cam Forte's offensive fouls and turnovers are starting to look like Brandon Morris's travels.  You just assume two per game and live with it.  I still love the energy he brings, and he racked up 4 assists yesterday, so it wasn't all bad.
• Speaking of assists, Georgia assisted on 16/21 field goals.  That's a spectacular percentage.
• Taylor Echols did not cover himself in glory.  His two turnovers were back-to-back and extremely careless, but his 3-pointer got Georgia going after a sluggish start, so it wasn't all bad.
• Tennessee had 10 points at the first media timeout, but they only scored 43 the rest of the way.  My favorite thing about our guards is that, even when the shots aren't falling, the defense doesn't suffer.  If you want to find the last time Josh Richardson was held to 2 points, you have to go back a full two years.
• I like Armani Moore a lot.  He plays bigger than he is, and he filled the stat sheet yesterday.  He kept the Volunteers in the game.
• It was good to have Marcus back, even if he wasn't at peak efficiency.  The offense just runs better when he's out there.
• Second straight good game from Nemi.  He had 4 of the team's 5 offensive rebounds.  He has been working really hard on the glass.
• Game ball goes to the ballboy who neglected to towel off the Tennessee lane.  Keep up the good work, son.

Three straight games under 60 points.  It's not a winning formula, and Georgia will need more than that Tuesday night.  This was another game that could have and even should have been a blowout.  Cut out a few of the turnovers and there wouldn't have been any drama.

That is not the team we cheer for, though.  These Bulldogs insist on making everything as difficult as possible.  Another challenge awaits with an Aggies team currently tied for second in the league.  Expect another close game, because that's what Georgia does.

Game card: Tennessee

Opponent:  Tennessee
Mascot:  Volunteers
Primary color(s):  Creamsicle and white
Record:  13-8 (5-4)
Best player:  Josh Richardson
Line:  Georgia -7

Why Georgia will win:  Georgia's strengths line up well with Tennessee's weaknesses.  The volunteers don't score particularly well, and they are atrocious rebounding the ball.  They have two players shooting the 3-ball very well, but Georgia should be able to contain those shooters as Tennessee doesn't have big men that demand double-teams.

Why Georgia will lose:  Marcus Thornton, as of this writing, still has not been cleared to play.  If Thornton can't go, Georgia remains one-dimensional, and that has not worked well the last two games.  Tennessee has actually be better on the road in conference, getting 3 out of 5 of their wins away from Knoxville.

What I think will happen:  Does Thornton play?  Vegas must think so.  I'm going to say he does, and thus Georgia gets a big win 73-64.

NIT rule changes

I hope we're not there to see it, but the NIT is going to experiment a little bit this year:

Teams relegated to the NIT this season will have to play under experimental rules, including a 30-second shot clock and a 4-foot restricted area under the basket.

Count me in favor of both.  30 seconds is plenty of time to get a good shot, and you know how much I hate the charge.  Anything that cuts down on those is a good rule in my book.

h/t ESPN

The problem with Charles Mann

It should be noted how highly I regard Charles Mann.  You have to think a lot of someone who is averaging 11.1/5.6/3.7 if you're then going to assert that there are problems.  That alone tells you I believe his ceiling is very high.

Let's also be clear that I admire Mann's attitude this season.  Someone whose season - through no fault of his own - has not gone as planned could pack it in and pout.  Charles has not done that.  He continues to play hard at both ends of the court and do whatever is asked of him.

With that said, there are problems.  Here's what I see:

1. Charles is not a point guard.  More than anything, his high turnover numbers suggest this.  He does not have elite ball-handling skills, and his court vision is lacking at times.  His career assist/turnover ratio is just under 1.  Unfortunately, until this season, Georgia has never had a better option at that position so Mann was tasked with running the point.  Until now, he was masked some of his inefficiency by playing with reckless abandon and getting to the free throw line at a fairly astonishing rate (over 8 times per game last year).  That is no longer happening because...
2. The referees have changed the way they officiate Charles.  The freedom of movement emphasis last year was the best thing that could have happened to Mann.  His lack of efficiency in the drive-and-kick game was compensated for by the fact that most of his drives ended in shooting fouls.  This year, the relaxation of that emphasis combined with (I believe) a conscious decision by SEC officials not to reward Mann with free throws on his more careless drives has led to a less trips to the line (down over 1/game) and a lot more missed layups.  Mann still drives looking for contact instead of looking to finish, and you can see the frustration when he doesn't get the calls.  This leads me to believe that...
3. Charles is struggling with his confidence.  More than anything, this is evident in his free throw shooting.  He actually started the year well, shooting well over 70% for the first seven games of the season.  However, as injuries have taken their toll and Charles has been forced out of the role he's played for the past two seasons, his free throw shooting has suffered.  Fortunately, the last two games have been better, and hopefully that portends good things down the road.

Keep in mind, I'm a fan, not a coach, so I could be way off base.  The good news is, all of this is fixable.

Coach Fox's offense is notoriously difficult to learn (but fun to watch when run correctly), so it's hard to blame Charles for looking lost now that he's playing more small forward.  The good news long term is that small forward is a much better fit for him.  With the addition of Turtle Jackson next season, Georgia will have a strong 2-deep at point guard (with a veteran Echols for emergencies), and Charles Mann will likely have a full offseason of training at small forward.  We can expect to see a lot more confident player.

As for the officiating, the best way to force their hand is to drive looking to score instead of just looking to get fouled (easy for me to say).  Many of Mann's drives end in wild shots that look designed to get a call, and that's no longer happening.  Getting to the basket (intelligently) and finishing is the best way to get the officials back on your side.

That Charles is averaging 5.6 rebounds per game and scoring 11.1 points while not playing his best basketball should ultimately be encouraging.  Charles - just like his team - has yet to reach his full potential, and that's ok.  That's the beauty of college basketball.

Just keep fighting.

Kentucky: post mortem

There are many things I can say to try to make you feel better about the loss to Kentucky.  How about the fact that Georgia was down 10 less than 4 minutes into the game and then outscored Kentucky by 5 over the next 34 minutes?  Or the fact that the loss feels respectable despite the continued struggles of Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines?  Or the fact that the Bulldogs did all of it without their best player?

Despite all of that, I still sit here frustrated by what I saw.  Georgia had 9 more turnovers and, consequently, 9 less shots than Kentucky.  Another 8 free throws were missed.  Kentucky is a talented team, obviously, but losses are so much easier to swallow when the other team beats you.  Instead, Georgia continues to be its own worst enemy:

• John Calipari put 7 McDonald's All-Americans on the court last night, and Mark Fox needed 18 minutes out of Houston Kessler because his best player was at home with a concussion, and it was anyone's game with 2 minutes left.  Should I be praising Fox this morning or mocking Calipari?
• Speaking of Kessler, you hit two threes in Rupp, son, and no one can ever take that away from you.
• Georgia out-rebounded Kentucky by 12, and that is a startling number.  It's also the only reason the game was close.  The Wildcats feast on the offensive glass, yet they only pulled down 5 all night.  Yante Maten and Nemi Djurisic did work.
• J.J. Frazier needs to shoot more.  He passed up a couple of "open" shots (as open as they'll get against that defense).  Against another team it might make sense to run some more offense and try to find a better look, but no one would have blamed him for shooting last night.
• Djurisic was fantastic.  Whatever he ate before the game, whatever music he listened to...keep it up.
• I'm not sure what ails Kenny Gaines right now, but we're going to need him for the stretch run.  He still looks good going to the basket, and I hope we see more of that.  I'd worry about his confidence at this point, but he doesn't seem like a guy that gets too rattled.
• Maten showed why there's reason for optimism despite the fact that Marcus Thornton will be moving on after this season.  He put on his big-boy pants last night and went toe-to-toe with some of the best big men in the country.  13 points and 9 rebounds later (4 offensive), we all liked what we saw.
• Two things we shouldn't lose about Mann's night:  6 assists and 5/6 free throws.
• I'd be remiss if I didn't mention one more time how this team refuses to get rattled.  They may not make all the plays, and they certainly don't win every game, but they never panic.  A weaker team would have folded down 17 in the second half at the #1 team in the country.  Our guys went on a 25-13 run and made things interesting.  I love that about this team.

Free throws and turnovers.  Turnovers and free throws.  If Fox can find a way - any way - to address these things, this team has a chance to be great.

Despite the two losses, there's no reason to believe Georgia is anything other than a good basketball team.  The SEC continues to cannibalize itself (look up what happened to Tennessee last night) and the Bulldogs have a really solid resume.  The next two are huge.  A home win over the Volunteers and a road win over the Aggies would make all of these bad feelings go away.

So look outside.  Perhaps the sun is shining.  I guarantee it came up this morning.  Thornton is about to come back healthy and angry, and we should all be there to see it on Saturday.  This team needs (and deserves) your support.

Go Dawgs!

The situation

The Numbers

CBSSports RPI:  28

ESPN BPI:  25

CBS Bracketology:  8 seed

ESPN Bracketology:   8 seed

 
The Resume
 

Good Wins:  Colorado, Seton Hall, @Kansas State, Florida, Ole Miss

Bad Losses:  @Georgia Tech, @South Carolina

The Schedule

Potential Top 50 Wins:  Ole Miss, Kentucky (twice), Tennessee, Texas A&M, Alabama

Potential Bad Losses:  Auburn, Missouri

What It All Means

The loss to South Carolina wasn't all that damaging, and it will be even less so if the Gamecocks can scratch their way into the top 100.  Georgia Tech is also right on the cusp of being a top 100 team.  A heartbreaking loss at the buzzer to N.C. State is the difference right now.

Also, as I predicted, Ole Miss has clawed their way back into the top 50.  Florida is threatening to do the same, currently sitting at 57.

Barring an epic meltdown, Georgia is a lock for the postseason at this point.

As far as the NCAA Tournament goes, Georgia is still ok, and they will still be ok after an almost certain loss tonight in Rupp.  I think if the Bulldogs win 6 of their remaining games they are a lock for the tournament.  They may even be ok winning 5 as long as they avoid losing at home to Auburn or South Carolina or on the road at Missouri.

The games against Tennessee and at Texas A&M are huge.  If Georgia can find a way to sweep those, we might start talking about playing for a seed instead of just playing to get in.

Game card: Kentucky

Opponent: Kentucky
Mascot:  Wildcats
Primary color(s): Blue
Record:  21-0 (8-0)
Best player:  Karl-Anthony Towns?  There are a lot of choices.
Line:  Kentucky -19.5

Why Georgia will win:  They won't.  I hope you didn't come here to see me try to justify why Georgia has a chance in this game.  After scoring 50 points and shooting 22% against a pretty average South Carolina defense, Georgia heads into the belly of the beast still without their best player.  For the Bulldogs to have a chance at covering that mighty spread, Gaines and Frazier are going to have to be hot, and Maten is going to have to avoid foul trouble.  Kentucky is not a great offensive team, but Georgia may not even score 50 in this game.

Why Georgia will lose:  I suppose I have to write something here.  Even without a sick Trey Lyles, Kentucky will march out 7 McDonald's All-Americans.  They are almost impossible to score on in the paint, and they close out on shooters as well as anyone in the country.  In Stegeman Coliseum this would be a herculean task, but alas, this one is in Rupp.  To top it all off, Georgia has never beaten a #1 team before.

What I think will happen:  Does it sound like I'm despairing?  I'm despairing.  I was really anxious to see what a "healthy" Bulldog team could do in Rupp.  Instead, we may need to watch through squinting eyes.  Kentucky wins 71-49.

Thornton out again

This is not good:

Marcus Thornton, who sustained a concussion last week, is expected to miss Tuesday night's game at undefeated and No. 1-ranked Kentucky, according to a source.

Read more here: http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2015/02/02/3545979_thornton-likely-to-miss-georgias.html?rh=1#storylink=cpy

Time to start finding excuses not to watch this game.

Is it possible this is Mark Fox buying some extra rest for Thornton as opposed to playing him in a game the Dawgs probably wouldn't even win full strength?  The cynical side of me wonders...

h/t Seth Emerson