Kentucky: post mortem

That was the greatest sporting event I have ever been a part of.*

Ok, ok.  Is it really?  I don't know.  It's worth admitting that I don't attend a ton of live sporting events:  the older I get, the more comfortable the couch becomes.  However, this one had all the ingredients:

1. Unbeaten juggernaut.  Is Kentucky the best college basketball team ever?  No.  Are they one of the greatest collections of individual talents ever seen on a single bench?  Yes.
2. National primetime audience.  Athens, Georgia was the center of the sporting world on Tuesday night.  Best slot.  Best network.  Best crew.
3. Electric arena.  It's going to be hard not to blather on about just how great the atmosphere in Stegeman really was.  I got goosebumps over and over all night long.  It was amazing to be a part of that.
4. Worthy opponent.  For one night at least, our Bulldogs went toe-to-toe with a team that should never be beaten.  A team that beat Kansas by 32, UNC by 15, UCLA by 39, Arkansas by 17, Louisville by 8, etc, etc.
5. Star power.  Charles Barkley and Ashley Judd?  Sure.  But when Bill Belichick makes time for a college basketball game, you know it's a good one.

So maybe it's just the afterglow, I don't know, but it may be a long time before I have that much fun in Stegeman again - and Georgia didn't even win:

•  I'm normally not big on the "color-out" concept, but the blackout was perfect.  On a Saturday at noon it might have looked silly, but Tuesday night at 9 it was positively menacing.
• The lightning fast 7-point run put on by Andrew Harrison (aided by that terrible flagrant call) was a huge moment in the game.  It could have been the beginning of the end.  When Georgia finished the half with 5 straight points to tie it up, you just knew they were in it to win it.
• What really blew me away was the work Georgia was able to do in the paint.  The Bulldogs shot 65.8% inside the 3-point line!  On the season, Kentucky's opponents (including Georgia both times) are averaging just a hair under 38% in that area.
• Georgia also did a decent job limiting turnovers.  Unfortunately, Kentucky was better.  They didn't turn the ball over until the second half which is...unheard of.
• Kentucky trotted out seven 5* recruits and two 4* recruits last night.  Georgia has zero of both.  It's fair to criticize Fox's recruiting, but it's harder and harder to fault him as a gameday coach.  Georgia did pretty much exactly what they wanted to do against the best defensive team in the nation.  They got a dunk on a beautiful out of bounds play.  They contested almost every shot.  If Fox can continue to upgrade the talent in Athens, we could see more games like this in the future.
• During the game, I told my wife that playing Kentucky was like trying to hold back a horde of zombies (we are fans of The Walking Dead).  You fight, and fight, and fight, but eventually they just overwhelm you.  That's what happened.  Much has been made of Georgia's late game performance:  they were tired, they were wide-eyed, they played tight.  All of those things are true.  What ultimately ended that game, though, was Karl-Anthony Towns.
• There is a reason Towns will be a millionaire a year from now and you and I will still be workaday guys and gals.  Down the stretch, Georgia simply couldn't guard him, and that's no slam against Thornton or Maten.  There probably isn't a player in college basketball who can guard Towns when he gets going.  When you trot in talent the way Calipari does, eventually you're going to find someone who is hot.
• What a way for our seniors to go out.  Of course I wish it had been a win, but Thornton and Djurisic both deserved a full Stegeman in their last home game, and they both delivered on the court.  I'm glad Kentucky fans got to see what a senior night celebration looks like, too.  They don't get much of that in Lexington.
• Speaking of Kentucky fans, I'm endlessly bemused by the pretentiousness of the "Big Blue Nation."  They love to brag about the size of the fanbase and how well they travel.  To that I say, being a Kentucky basketball fan is about the easiest thing in the world.  I am 33 years old, and in my entire life, Kentucky has missed the postseason 3 times - and 2 of those were due to postseason bans.  Since 1930, when Adolph Rupp arrived, Kentucky has finished under .500 one time.  So continue congratulating yourselves and hope you never have to deal with a little adversity.  If you do, you know what you'll be?  Every other fanbase in America.
• With that said, every UK fan I ran into was delightful and gracious.  Even the gentleman who was berated for standing moments after the tipoff by the crotchety old Dawg in front of me (not a good look, sir).

There's so much more to talk about.  The valiant effort on the boards.  Gaines' dunk.  The middle-aged white guy next to me jumping up and down during a timeout singing "All the Way Turnt Up."

It's time to move on, though.  I'm sure that's been the message from Fox.  You know what a close loss to one of the best college basketball teams of all time gets you?  Nothing.  There are no moral victories, and a loss to Auburn on Saturday will effectively stamp out any goodwill garnered on Tuesday night.

If Georgia plays with the fire and intensity they showed against Kentucky, they'll be playing a week from Sunday.  If they don't, we may yet see them back in Stegeman - as a host in the NIT.

*Maybe.

Proud

Post mortem will be late - maybe even Thursday.  I just got home, and I'm emotionally and physically drained.  I won't be back at the computer until at least tomorrow night.

For now, let's just say I'm proud of my team.  The stage got a little too big there at the end, but if we play like that, this season is far from over.

Go Dawgs.

How to beat Kentucky

You can find any number of posts and articles on the web about how to beat Kentucky.

The Wildcats are probably the safest bet to run the table and win the NCAA Championship in at least 20 years, so the reality is this:  if Kentucky plays well, Georgia cannot beat them.

This is what happens when someone abuses a very bad rule and hoards the best talent year after year.  Eventually they end up with a collection of players that is head and shoulders above the rest of the competition, and any semblance of competitive balance goes out the window.

With that said, Kentucky is still a team of 18, 19, and 20-year olds, and sometimes young men of that age have an off night.  If that happens tonight, here's how Georgia can win:

1. Win the first eight minutes.  In their last five games, Tennessee is the only team that has managed to hang with Kentucky in the first half.  The other four games have started like this:  18-3, 30-4, 20-10, and 20-10.  If beating Kentucky is hard, coming back from double-digits is nearly impossible.  If you come out tight, you're dead.
2. Shoot the ball.  As in, limit your pump fakes.  Against almost every team in the country, a pump fake is a good thing.  Against Kentucky, it's a death trap.  Their defense is suffocating, so if you find yourself with an open look, you must take it.  Any hesitation, and you've just allowed the defense to recover.
3. Hit a lot of 3's.  It will probably take something like 12-14 3-point baskets for Georgia to win the game.  It's great that Marcus Thornton is back, but you don't beat Kentucky inside.  They have three big men who should be making NBA money right now.  Guys like Gaines, Djurisic, and Frazier are going to have to shoot lights out to give Georgia a chance.
4. Win the rebounding battle.  This is always important, but it's extra important against the Wildcats.  They feast on the offensive glass.  Georgia did a good job of this in Rupp Arena.  It would behoove them to do it again tonight.
5. Limit turnovers.  Georgia turned the ball over 16 times in the first meeting.  That's way too many.  That led to the Bulldogs taking nine less shots than Kentucky.  You don't beat good teams by shooting less than them.

On a normal night, 2 or 3 of those things might get you a win.  Tonight, it will take 4 or 5 - unless, of course, Kentucky plays well, in which case it's on to Auburn.

The Situation

The Numbers

CBSSports RPI:  35

ESPN BPI:  27

CBS Bracketology:  9 seed

ESPN Bracketology:   8 seed

 
The Resume

Good Wins:  @Chattanooga, Seton Hall, @Kansas State, Florida, Ole Miss, @Texas A&M, @Alabama, @Ole Miss

Bad Losses:  @Georgia Tech, Auburn, South Carolina

The Schedule

Potential Top 50 Wins:  Kentucky

Potential Bad Losses:  @Auburn

What It All Means

You probably didn't notice, but Chattanooga sneaked into the RPI top 100 this week.  Georgia's record vs. the top 50 and top 100 is 3-4 and 10-7, respectively.  That's pretty good!  Jerry Palm has them in the tournament and off the bubble, too.  That's also good!

The win over Missouri hurt Georgia's RPI (that's how bad they are), but not nearly as much as a loss would have.  At this point, it's hard to see Georgia being excluded from the tournament, even if they lose three in a row.  That doesn't mean it couldn't happen, of course.  Things like conference tournament upsets can shrink the bubble in a hurry.  That's why it would really behoove Georgia to win at least one more game.

If that win comes tonight, we can start talking about seeding.  It's conceivable that Georgia could fight all the way up to a 6 seed if they beat Kentucky and Auburn and won a game in the SEC Tournament.  That's not likely to happen.

It's far more likely that Georgia beats either Auburn or their first SEC Tournament opponent and enters the tournament as an 8 or 9 seed.  That is, of course, less than ideal if you're interested in advancing to the Sweet 16, but the way things have gone for this program and this team, I'll take it.

 

Game card: Kentucky

Opponent: Kentucky
Record:  29-0 (16-0)
Best player:  Take your pick.  Seriously, it changes almost every night.
Line:  Kentucky -10.5

Why Georgia will win:  If anyone is going to beat Kentucky before tournament time, it may just be Georgia.  This is Kentucky's last true road game, and perhaps they'll be looking ahead to their real season, which starts in about two weeks.  Georgia is approaching healthy for the first time in a long time, and if a couple of the shooters can get going, they play good enough defense to keep it close.

Why Georgia will lose:  Kentucky is, by far, the best team in the country.  They play stifling defense, they have multiple NBA big men, and their overall talent is simply overwhelming.  It is, quite frankly, not fair, and there's no reason to pick against them in any game, let alone this one.  The only reason Georgia kept it close is because Kentucky's shooters were a little off in Rupp.  Don't expect a repeat performance.

What I think will happen:  I don't think Georgia will get embarrassed.  I also don't think they'll win.  Kentucky wins 72-58.

“Looking back on it, I don’t think Kentucky played very well."

Georgia and Kentucky don't tip it off on the court until tomorrow night, but the psychological warfare has already begun.

In one corner, you have Calipari, who wants his guys to believer Georgia is a Final Four team that could have won at Rupp if only they'd had their best player:

"I've been doing this for 20-some years. And Mark Fox, every game we've played has been one of those games where he's tried things, done things," Calipari said. "He may come out and play zone. He may come out and play man. They may sag. You don't know what he's going to do. He looked at the tape and he's gonna try to exploit us defensively.

"He is one of those coaches that I know when we walk in we better be ready. Our team better be ready. Our staff better be ready. His team will be ready. he's one of the toughest ones to go against that I've been (against) in 20-some years. So that game (at Rupp) doesn't really matter. He didn't have his best player. This is a totally different game."

In the other, you have Fox, who'd like to convince his players that the game in Lexington wasn't actually that close:

“Looking back on it, I don’t think Kentucky played very well. They didn’t have (Trey) Lyles,” said Georgia's Mark Fox, who then pointed out that Kentucky led the entire game, often in double digits. “We got it close, but that game wasn’t close.”

If you're Mark Fox you're trying to find the sweet spot where your kids believe they have a chance but also know it's going to take a fantastic performance to spring the upset.  If you're Calipari, you're just trying to keep your kids motivated to play what is ultimately a meaningless game on the road a mere two weeks before your real season begins.

[Ledger-Enquirer]

Missouri: post mortem

Well that was refreshing.  Missouri is a bad team, and Georgia did exactly what good teams are supposed to do when they get bad teams at home.  There isn't much to say about this one, and that's a compliment to our Bulldogs:

• I admit I had a small moment of consternation when Namon Wright hit his second early 3-pointer.  He was coming off a game in which he hit 6/8, so I had my eye on him.  That I was ever worried says more about Georgia's season than about the game itself.  It was never in doubt.
• If Georgia can bottle some of the rebounding they did in this game for Tuesday night, that would be nice.  A 17 rebound edge - with 19 offensive rebounds to boot - is going to win you a lot of games.
• You may have heard that Nemi Djurisic's parents were seeing him play in Athens for the first time.  He played like it, too.  They'll be back Tuesday night as well for senior night.
• J.J. Frazier is looking pretty healthy, which is great to see.  His bounce pass to Cam Forte for the dunk was pretty.
• And Forte?  Oh, just 10 more points and 6 more rebounds without a single turnover.  Nothing he does on the floor is pretty, but it always seems to look good in the box score.
• Great ovation from the crowd when Juwan Parker got in the game.  He looked positively giddy.  I loved the goofy smile after he went baseline and tried to dunk.  Glad he hit one of the free throws too.  I don't know what, if anything, he can give us, but it certainly can't hurt to have him as an option heading into the tournament(s).
• Kenny Gaines 0/4 on free throws?  I bet he's beating himself up over that one.
• Was it a little disconcerting to see Georgia lose interest about halfway through the second half?  Absolutely.  But it was a lot better than seeing them start the game disinterested, that's for sure.  I loved the 5 man substitution by Fox, too.  I think he got his point across.
• You think Iduwe was excited to play?  His hook shot had to have missed by 6 feet.
• 18 assists on 26 made field goals.  That's a number I can get excited about.
• As for Missouri, well, there's just not much talent there right now, though a few of the younger players (Wright and Gant) are nice pieces.  Will Kim Anderson get it turned around?  I have no idea, but the team I saw yesterday was not close.
• Really great crowd.  I was shocked.  Noon game on a Saturday after two bad home losses?  I expected 6,000.  Instead, the announced crowd was something like 9,300.  Winning solves a lot of problems.

One more home game, and it's a doozy.  I hope you'll be there to support Thornton and Djurisic.  They both deserve it.  Can Georgia spring the upset?  Probably not.  But I like my team, and I like their fight, and I'll be there to watch them try.