Here is what I wrote in my Minnesota post mortem:
Let's recap where we're at now that the non-conference schedule is complete, then let's stick a fork in it and move on to Arkansas.
Record: 9-3
CBSSports.com RPI: 21
Good wins: Seton Hall (10), Stony Brook (75), Colorado (76)
Bad losses: none. All three losses were to teams with RPI's in the top 100.
MVP: Marcus Thornton. If you wanted to argue for Charles Mann, I couldn't find much fault. However, Thornton leads the team in points, rebounds, is second in blocks, and is tied for third in assists. He's been Georgia's most consistent player, a real presence in the post, and, to me, is the biggest reason the Bulldogs find themselves with some national attention for the first time in years.
Pleasant surprise: I'll give you two.
First, J.J. Frazier, who has turned into exactly the spark plug Georgia needs him to be. He plays smart, he hits shots, and he brings energy every single night.
Second, the distribution of scoring has been marvelous. Four players on the team are averaging double figures, and the aforementioned J.J. Frazier is less than a point away. This represents a huge departure from previous Mark Fox teams and, if it stands, would mark the first time it has happened in a full season since 2006-07 (Takais Brown, Mike Mercer, Levi Stukes, and Sundiata Gaines).
Biggest disappointment: I'll give you two of these as well.
First and foremost, the free throw shooting, which has somehow regressed from last season. Most troubling are Charles Mann (61%) and Marcus Thornton (59%), who have combined to shoot almost half of Georgia's free throws. If the Bulldogs could hit just four more free throws per game (out of the ten they're currently missing), they would rise from tied for 97th in the country in per game scoring all the way to the top 50.
Second, the team 3-point percentage has fallen from 35% all the way to 31%. Kenny Gaines and Nemanja Djurisic share the blame there. I really thought outside shooting was going to be a strength for this team coming in, but that has not born itself out yet. If it gets fixed, this team can be very, very good.
Why Georgia will make the tournament: All they have to do is hold serve at home and avoid bad losses. Mississippi State is the only potential RPI killer in the league, so a .500 record in conference play might even get the job done. Every home game not against Kentucky is winnable, so 2 or 3 road wins are all Georgia needs to go dancing. The offense is still rounding into form, but the defense is there to make it all but a done deal.
Why Georgia will miss the tournament: At what point do these ugly wins become ugly losses? The performances we've seen against Kansas State and Norfolk State will not get it done in the SEC, so we can look forward to some head-scratching losses as conference play gets under way. Vanderbilt and Kentucky are both on the schedule twice, and Mark Fox has not beaten either team enough to inspire any confidence. A tough start to conference play (Arkansas, @LSU, @Vanderbilt, Florida) could be demoralizing.
Bottom line: My expectations coming into the season were that Georgia would receive a tournament bid. Nothing I've seen changes those expectations. The Bulldogs are in a position they haven't been in since at least 2011: hold serve and they dance.
The SEC, to put it nicely, is not very good, which means Georgia probably needs 9 non-conference wins paired with at least 12 conference wins to have any chance. That means there is no longer any room for error. They have to run off 6 straight wins heading into conference play. Based on what we saw tonight, that seems unlikely.I meant it, too. Thankfully, I was wrong on a couple points. First, the SEC is a little better than I thought at the time. National perception still lags, but the conference RPI is top 3 pretty much anywhere you look. That is meaningful. Second, it turns out running off 6 straight wins is exactly what Georgia did. It wasn't always pretty, but it happened. Third, not only does 12 conference wins get Georgia in, but assuming none of the 6 losses is to Mississippi State, it probably garners Georgia a 6 seed or better.
Let's recap where we're at now that the non-conference schedule is complete, then let's stick a fork in it and move on to Arkansas.
Record: 9-3
CBSSports.com RPI: 21
Good wins: Seton Hall (10), Stony Brook (75), Colorado (76)
Bad losses: none. All three losses were to teams with RPI's in the top 100.
MVP: Marcus Thornton. If you wanted to argue for Charles Mann, I couldn't find much fault. However, Thornton leads the team in points, rebounds, is second in blocks, and is tied for third in assists. He's been Georgia's most consistent player, a real presence in the post, and, to me, is the biggest reason the Bulldogs find themselves with some national attention for the first time in years.
Pleasant surprise: I'll give you two.
First, J.J. Frazier, who has turned into exactly the spark plug Georgia needs him to be. He plays smart, he hits shots, and he brings energy every single night.
Second, the distribution of scoring has been marvelous. Four players on the team are averaging double figures, and the aforementioned J.J. Frazier is less than a point away. This represents a huge departure from previous Mark Fox teams and, if it stands, would mark the first time it has happened in a full season since 2006-07 (Takais Brown, Mike Mercer, Levi Stukes, and Sundiata Gaines).
Biggest disappointment: I'll give you two of these as well.
First and foremost, the free throw shooting, which has somehow regressed from last season. Most troubling are Charles Mann (61%) and Marcus Thornton (59%), who have combined to shoot almost half of Georgia's free throws. If the Bulldogs could hit just four more free throws per game (out of the ten they're currently missing), they would rise from tied for 97th in the country in per game scoring all the way to the top 50.
Second, the team 3-point percentage has fallen from 35% all the way to 31%. Kenny Gaines and Nemanja Djurisic share the blame there. I really thought outside shooting was going to be a strength for this team coming in, but that has not born itself out yet. If it gets fixed, this team can be very, very good.
Why Georgia will make the tournament: All they have to do is hold serve at home and avoid bad losses. Mississippi State is the only potential RPI killer in the league, so a .500 record in conference play might even get the job done. Every home game not against Kentucky is winnable, so 2 or 3 road wins are all Georgia needs to go dancing. The offense is still rounding into form, but the defense is there to make it all but a done deal.
Why Georgia will miss the tournament: At what point do these ugly wins become ugly losses? The performances we've seen against Kansas State and Norfolk State will not get it done in the SEC, so we can look forward to some head-scratching losses as conference play gets under way. Vanderbilt and Kentucky are both on the schedule twice, and Mark Fox has not beaten either team enough to inspire any confidence. A tough start to conference play (Arkansas, @LSU, @Vanderbilt, Florida) could be demoralizing.
Bottom line: My expectations coming into the season were that Georgia would receive a tournament bid. Nothing I've seen changes those expectations. The Bulldogs are in a position they haven't been in since at least 2011: hold serve and they dance.
"I want to dance with somebody"... Whitney Houston
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