Scheduling news

Georgia will play at Baylor on January 30th as part of the SEC-Big 12 Challenge.  ESPN has it as the 6th best game in the lineup.

Quick:  what is Mark Fox's record against ranked opponents as coach of the Georgia Bulldogs?

My math says 7-29.  That is...not good.  Odds are that Baylor will be ranked, and we will be in their gym, so it's an excellent chance to pick up a big time non-conference win in front of national TV eyeballs.

I guess what I'm saying is, go ahead and circle that one on your refrigerator magnet.

[Ledger-Enquirer]
[ESPN]

Non-conference roundup

Here is what I wrote in my Minnesota post mortem:

The SEC, to put it nicely, is not very good, which means Georgia probably needs 9 non-conference wins paired with at least 12 conference wins to have any chance.  That means there is no longer any room for error.  They have to run off 6 straight wins heading into conference play.  Based on what we saw tonight, that seems unlikely.

I meant it, too.  Thankfully, I was wrong on a couple points.  First, the SEC is a little better than I thought at the time.  National perception still lags, but the conference RPI is top 3 pretty much anywhere you look.  That is meaningful.  Second, it turns out running off 6 straight wins is exactly what Georgia did.  It wasn't always pretty, but it happened.  Third, not only does 12 conference wins get Georgia in, but assuming none of the 6 losses is to Mississippi State, it probably garners Georgia a 6 seed or better.

Let's recap where we're at now that the non-conference schedule is complete, then let's stick a fork in it and move on to Arkansas.

Record: 9-3

CBSSports.com RPI:  21

Good wins:  Seton Hall (10), Stony Brook (75), Colorado (76)

Bad losses:  none.  All three losses were to teams with RPI's in the top 100.

MVP:  Marcus Thornton.  If you wanted to argue for Charles Mann, I couldn't find much fault.  However, Thornton leads the team in points, rebounds, is second in blocks, and is tied for third in assists.  He's been Georgia's most consistent player, a real presence in the post, and, to me, is the biggest reason the Bulldogs find themselves with some national attention for the first time in years.

Pleasant surprise:  I'll give you two.

First, J.J. Frazier, who has turned into exactly the spark plug Georgia needs him to be.  He plays smart, he hits shots, and he brings energy every single night.

Second, the distribution of scoring has been marvelous.  Four players on the team are averaging double figures, and the aforementioned J.J. Frazier is less than a point away.  This represents a huge departure from previous Mark Fox teams and, if it stands, would mark the first time it has happened in a full season since 2006-07 (Takais Brown, Mike Mercer, Levi Stukes, and Sundiata Gaines).

Biggest disappointment:  I'll give you two of these as well.

First and foremost, the free throw shooting, which has somehow regressed from last season.  Most troubling are Charles Mann (61%) and Marcus Thornton (59%), who have combined to shoot almost half of Georgia's free throws.  If the Bulldogs could hit just four more free throws per game (out of the ten they're currently missing), they would rise from tied for 97th in the country in per game scoring all the way to the top 50.

Second, the team 3-point percentage has fallen from 35% all the way to 31%.  Kenny Gaines and Nemanja Djurisic share the blame there.  I really thought outside shooting was going to be a strength for this team coming in, but that has not born itself out yet.  If it gets fixed, this team can be very, very good.

Why Georgia will make the tournament:  All they have to do is hold serve at home and avoid bad losses.  Mississippi State is the only potential RPI killer in the league, so a .500 record in conference play might even get the job done.  Every home game not against Kentucky is winnable, so 2 or 3 road wins are all Georgia needs to go dancing.  The offense is still rounding into form, but the defense is there to make it all but a done deal.

Why Georgia will miss the tournament:  At what point do these ugly wins become ugly losses?  The performances we've seen against Kansas State and Norfolk State will not get it done in the SEC, so we can look forward to some head-scratching losses as conference play gets under way.  Vanderbilt and Kentucky are both on the schedule twice, and Mark Fox has not beaten either team enough to inspire any confidence.  A tough start to conference play (Arkansas, @LSU, @Vanderbilt, Florida) could be demoralizing.

Bottom line:  My expectations coming into the season were that Georgia would receive a tournament bid.  Nothing I've seen changes those expectations.  The Bulldogs are in a position they haven't been in since at least 2011:  hold serve and they dance.

Where we find ourselves today

RPI:

Top 25:

For the first time in a long time, our Georgia Bulldogs do not face an uphill climb heading into conference play.  That doesn't mean it's going to be easy, but if the season ended today, the Bulldogs would almost certainly receive an at-large bid.

In saying this, I'm making the cardinal sin of overlooking an opponent, Norfolk State, whose RPI sits at 152.  As a blogger, I can be forgiven - the team cannot.  Lose that one and things change dramatically.

Also note that the first two conference opponents, Arkansas and LSU, also have top 30 RPI rankings.  A 2-0 run there would really start to ratchet up expectations.

Let's not get that far ahead of ourselves, though.  Instead, let's enjoy "receiving votes" for the first time in a while, and let's turn out on Saturday to support a team that may not be winning pretty, but is winning nonetheless.

Dawgs are rolling

How about an article talking about how well Georgia's basketball team is playing...in December:

It’s a rare thing to say this time of the year that good things are happening for the Georgia men’s basketball program. And three weeks ago, that couldn’t be said.

That has changed, in a big way. Georgia routed Seton Hall on Sunday, 65-47, giving the Bulldogs their second straight win over a strong opponent.

The fans seem to be noticing, and they responded by putting their butts in the seats for a game less than a week before Christmas.  It's been a while since that has happened:

“I’ve been here five years. I’ve never, in December, over Christmas break, seen a crowd like that before,” Georgia senior Marcus Thornton said. “I mean that was the best crowd we’ve had all year. … And we’re glad we’re able to give them a pretty good performance.”

The season has been far from perfect, but things seem to be clicking right now - something that hasn't happened early in any season under Fox.  Georgia has two really nice wins over Colorado and Seton Hall, and the chance to grab another in Manhattan, Kansas on the 30th.

A lot is going right, of course, but a few things stand out.  First, the defense has been getting better and better.  The team we saw on Sunday would have run Minnesota out of the gym.  The scoring continues to be distributed, as well, which is key for a team that has struggled in the past with large scoring droughts.

The fact that all of this has been done without a completely healthy Kenny Gaines bears mentioning, as he and Marcus Thornton are the Dawgs' two best players.  If Gaines can stay healthy and get a few more practices under his belt, Georgia will cause a lot of problems in the SEC this year.

Be sure to watch the video attached to the article, as well.  In it, Gaines talks about his reaction to his injury ("I thought it was over") and whether or not he would have done the reverse dunk in a close game (yes).

h/t Seth Emerson

NIT Season Tip-off matchups set

The NIT Season Tip-off format is changing a bit this year due to a lack of participation.  This means the semifinal matchups at Madison Square Garden are set, and Georgia will be playing Gonzaga.  Minnesota plays St. John's in the other semifinal, with the consolation and championship games being played on Friday, November 28.

This is a huge opportunity for Georgia to get a couple of quality non-conference wins.  Gonzaga, as you well know, is no pushover, but Georgia can compete with every team in the tournament.  Georgia's recent history in preseason tournaments has not been good.  Now would be a spectacular time to turn that around.

Georgia will also play Stony Brook in Athens, but the outcome of the game won't affect the matchup in New York.  Stony Brook lost in the first round of the CBI tournament last season.

h/t ESPN

Non-conference Matters

Mark Fox doesn't have time for numbers:

“It’s ridiculous,” Fox said. “You can skew statistics in any way you want. … I realize that in November Georgia was not an at-large team, but the Georgia team right now is pretty damn good! We’ve got more work to do before we can realistically argue that, but if you just rely on numbers you can make any case that you want.”

He's right that this team has steadily improved over the course of the season.  Georgia is playing tournament quality basketball right now.

The problem is that November matters.  Fox tends to treat non-conference play as sandbox mode where the outcome doesn't mean anything.  He plays with bizarre rotations and he tends to give out minutes to guys who have not earned them.  This results in losses (see:  Charleston).

Every Georgia fan knew coming into this season that Mann and Gaines were the key for this team, yet he refused to ride them during non-conference play.  Instead, we saw Kenny Paul Geno, Juwan Parker, John Cannon, and Taylor Echols playing critical minutes in losses to bad teams like Davidson and Temple.

The philosophy has to change next year.  Mann, Gaines, and Morris will all be juniors, and Georgia can ride them to the tournament if Fox lets them.  But it has to start in game 1.

None of this will stop Fox from trying to sell his team (nor should it):

“If we went to the finals of the tournament, for instance, and we get second place in the regular season and second place in the tournament, you’re telling me that the second-place team in this league doesn’t belong in the NCAA tournament? I think there would be a realistic argument for us.”

Maybe so, Mark, but your final point is the best:

“But if we get to the championship game, you might as well win it.”

Indeed.

h/t AJC