Sinking ship

Georgia currently has only one win over a top 50 opponent, and that represents one of their biggest weaknesses from a resume standpoint.  For a while it looked like Seton Hall was guaranteed a spot in the top 50, but they are in the midst of a complete meltdown.  This doesn't help:

Sina, a 6-foot-2 New Jersey native, was averaging 7.0 points and 2.3 assists this season. He started 23 of 24 games, scoring nine points in 29 minutes against Georgetown on Tuesday.

Seton Hall didn't provide a reason for Sina's departure, only saying the sides had agreed to part ways.

All the more reason to get a win tonight in College Station.

[ESPN]

Where we find ourselves today

RPI:

Top 25:

For the first time in a long time, our Georgia Bulldogs do not face an uphill climb heading into conference play.  That doesn't mean it's going to be easy, but if the season ended today, the Bulldogs would almost certainly receive an at-large bid.

In saying this, I'm making the cardinal sin of overlooking an opponent, Norfolk State, whose RPI sits at 152.  As a blogger, I can be forgiven - the team cannot.  Lose that one and things change dramatically.

Also note that the first two conference opponents, Arkansas and LSU, also have top 30 RPI rankings.  A 2-0 run there would really start to ratchet up expectations.

Let's not get that far ahead of ourselves, though.  Instead, let's enjoy "receiving votes" for the first time in a while, and let's turn out on Saturday to support a team that may not be winning pretty, but is winning nonetheless.

RPI's rising

Exams roll on and Georgia continues practicing and (hopefully) getting better.  Kenny Gaines' shoulder is, of course, on all of our minds.  There is a lot riding on that shoulder starting next Sunday at 6:00.

Posting had admittedly been thin around here (real life can be so intrusive), but Hoop Dawgs has you covered with a nice update on where we are.

The most important non-shoulder related tidbit is probably this:

The good news, though, is that the league has 5 teams in the RPI Top 50, a poll that is much more indicative of a team’s NCAA Tournament chances. Currently, Kentucky, LSU, Arkansas, Alabama and Ole Miss all have RPI’s under 50. Georgia plays all of the aforementioned teams (Kentucky and Ole Miss twice), along with #26 Seton Hall, giving Mark Fox’s team plenty of chances to improve upon their 2-7 record against the RPI Top 50 from a year ago. The Dawgs RPI currently sits at 64, which kind of pleasantly surprised me considering the 5-3 record.

We're still at the point in the season where RPI's can fluctuate rapidly, but the weakness of the SEC might actually be a bit overstated this year. After Seton Hall, Georgia has one more real shot at a quality win (Kansas State) before SEC play starts, so the fiercer the SEC looks, the better it is for everyone.

h/t Hoop Dawgs

SEC strength, part 2

Another look at the national perception of SEC hoops.  It starts with a reminder that Bruce Pearl may have been a bit overconfident in his return to coaching:

Exactly seven weeks ago today, new Auburn basketball coach Bruce Pearl said of the Southeastern Conference's NCAA tournament prospects this coming March, "This year I guarantee five, and I think there could be as many as six, NCAA teams."

Roughly a month into the season, it again appears as if the conference might be closer to last year's three invitees than Pearl's hoped-for six.

The early RPI numbers back that up:

Even the RPI numbers hint of an SEC again in flux. Though eight schools are among RealTime RPI's first 69, any team past 40 is living on the edge, and half of those eight are doing just that -- Ole Miss (69), Mississippi State (63), South Carolina (61) and A&M (56) all outside the comfort zone currently enjoyed by UK (2), LSU (20), Arkansas (21) and Alabama (35).

As we approach conference play, the SEC really, really needs some quality out-of-conference wins to boost their collective RPI.  Our own Georgia Bulldogs could help with that by beating Seton Hall - currently sitting at 19 in the daily RPI rankings.

The article, by the way, never mentions Georgia, which means they are still somehow flying under the radar despite finishing tied for second in the conference last year.  The only way to change that is by doing it all over again.

h/t Chattanooga Times Free Press

The SEC is...average?

True story:  I was traveling to Detroit for work, and the hotel I booked sent out an email to welcome me.  In the note, the manager said their motto was, "Detroit:  it's not as bad as you thought!"

I went to check on the SEC's conference ranking tonight, and I expected to find bad news.  The conference has seemed less-than-stellar thusfar.  The answer, though, is that the SEC is not as bad as I thought.

Here are the conference RPI rankings from realtimerpi.com:

Rank		Conference	Avg. RPI	Avg. SOS	SOS Rank	Teams
	1	Big 12	0.6221	0.5597	2	10
	2	Big Ten	0.6031	0.5522	3	14
	3	Big East	0.5852	0.5228	7	10
	4	Atlantic Coast	0.5808	0.5471	5	15
	5	Southeastern	0.5753	0.5615	1	14
	6	Atlantic 10	0.5491	0.5398	6	14
	7	Pacific-12	0.5482	0.4876	19	12
	8	West Coast	0.5454	0.5149	12	10
	9	Missouri Valley	0.5442	0.5495	4	10
	10	American Athletic	0.5274	0.5060	14	11

Last year the SEC finished 7th, so that's a tick up.  You'll notice the strength of schedule is helping quite a bit.

The caveat, of course, is that it's very, very early, and there could still be some wild swings (Green Bay is currently 4th in team RPI).  However, it's an encouraging start, because a strong SEC is good for Georgia, who is going to need three or four quality wins to get into the tournament.

A couple can certainly come out of conference (Colorado and Seton Hall would be a great start), but Georgia will need some SEC teams with high RPI's on the schedule, and they'll have to beat those teams.  So plug your nose and root for Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, and LSU.  Then hope we can get at least three wins out of that group when conference play rolls around.

Non-conference Matters

Mark Fox doesn't have time for numbers:

“It’s ridiculous,” Fox said. “You can skew statistics in any way you want. … I realize that in November Georgia was not an at-large team, but the Georgia team right now is pretty damn good! We’ve got more work to do before we can realistically argue that, but if you just rely on numbers you can make any case that you want.”

He's right that this team has steadily improved over the course of the season.  Georgia is playing tournament quality basketball right now.

The problem is that November matters.  Fox tends to treat non-conference play as sandbox mode where the outcome doesn't mean anything.  He plays with bizarre rotations and he tends to give out minutes to guys who have not earned them.  This results in losses (see:  Charleston).

Every Georgia fan knew coming into this season that Mann and Gaines were the key for this team, yet he refused to ride them during non-conference play.  Instead, we saw Kenny Paul Geno, Juwan Parker, John Cannon, and Taylor Echols playing critical minutes in losses to bad teams like Davidson and Temple.

The philosophy has to change next year.  Mann, Gaines, and Morris will all be juniors, and Georgia can ride them to the tournament if Fox lets them.  But it has to start in game 1.

None of this will stop Fox from trying to sell his team (nor should it):

“If we went to the finals of the tournament, for instance, and we get second place in the regular season and second place in the tournament, you’re telling me that the second-place team in this league doesn’t belong in the NCAA tournament? I think there would be a realistic argument for us.”

Maybe so, Mark, but your final point is the best:

“But if we get to the championship game, you might as well win it.”

Indeed.

h/t AJC

Bubble Watch

The ESPN ticker shows Lunardi's bubbles by conference, and Georgia is in there.  I can't find any evidence online so I have nowhere to link.

I just don't buy it.  Take a look at Georgia's resume.  According to RealTimeRPI.com, the Bulldogs have two wins against the Top 50, but only because Missouri is #50.  The next closest are Arkansas at #60 and LSU (x2) at #71.

Perhaps if Missouri and Arkansas meet in the finals on their half of the bracket and Georgia makes it to Sunday that would be enough.  I still think we have to win the whole shooting match.