Auburn: post mortem

I almost just cut-and-paste my Vanderbilt post mortem, but Georgia showed enough life in the last few minutes to make that impractical.  I apologize in advance for the tone of this post.

That the team eclipsed its first half point total in the last 5 minutes of the game clearly demonstrates the biggest problem with this team and presents the most obvious solution:

• Mark Bradley beat me to this, but he says exactly what I've been thinking ever since the LSU game: why does Georgia look so much better in desperation mode?  The answer should be obvious.  Mark Fox's sets aren't working.  When the Bulldogs run the offense as designed, they stagnate, and the shots are terrible.  When they run and ad lib, the shots are better.  J.J. Frazier is free to pull up in the lane where he is absolutely deadly.  Guys like Kenny Gaines are able to create shots that they can make as opposed to force shots they cannot.
• So why won't Fox turn his team loose?  The cynic in me thinks he'd rather give up 70 points and lose than give up 80 points and win.  That's insane, right?  It can't be true...can it?
• Because yes, when you go faster, you give up more points.  But something is not working right now, and I'm very hesitant to blame the players, because when things are at their worst, it looks like they're simply doing what their coach tells them to do.
• Auburn is not a good team.  In fact, they are a bad team.  Yes, they hit a lot of 3-pointers, and that's literally their only chance at winning games this year.  But when Cinmeon Bowers left the game with 2 fouls, the ball should have entered to Yante Maten and/or Derek Ogbeide every single time down the court and Georgia should have run up the score from there.
• That didn't happen, of course, because Maten inexplicably rode the pine almost the entire first half.  Mark Fox said he "wasn't playing well."  I'm no coach, and maybe he wasn't playing well...but it's almost like Fox is creating excuses as the game goes on.  "We might lose this game, so I'll bench our best player and use that as an excuse in case we do."  Too cynical?  Again, it probably is.  But every game is must-win right now, and he's just not coaching like that's the case.  It's hard to watch.
• This really isn't a post mortem, is it?  It's just me complaining.  Sorry.
• J.J. Frazier and Kenny Gaines average a combined 22.1 field goal attempts/game, and Georgia averages under 70 points/game.  Against Auburn, they combined for 30 shots and Georgia scored 81 points.  Hmm...
• With the exception of Ogbeide, the freshmen are playing with 0 confidence right now.  With the season lost, Fox may want to consider rectifying that in the last four games.
• This loss wasn't quite as bad as the home loss to an undermanned Vanderbilt team a few years ago.  Does that count as a silver lining.

Georgia has put up 3 50+ point halves this season.  Two of them came in losses.  This is not a coincidence.  The team plays better when they dig a big hole because they have to play differently.

The formula for this team seems simple to a dumb fan like me: go fast, and allow Maten, Gaines, or Frazier to take the first good look they get.  I'm certain it's not that easy, but I'm also certain that whatever Fox and his gang are doing is way too hard.

[DawgNation]

Vanderbilt: post mortem

Stop me if you're heard this one before: a slow start and some questionable rotations doomed Georgia on the road.

And the world keeps spinning:

• Mark Fox's excuse for yanking Derek Ogbeide less than 2 minutes into the game?  A hot gym.  I mean...I just...nope...
• Ogbeide is looking every bit the 4* he was rated as coming out of high school.  If deployed correctly, he and Maten could do some damage in the post over the next two years.
• I really do feel for Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines.  I'm confident this isn't how they saw their senior seasons playing out, but any postseason ship has likely sailed.  With that said, neither one of those guys has ever been one to let up, and I don't think they will now.
• I find myself getting jealous when I watch a team like Vanderbilt play.  How many dunks and good looks from long distance did they end up with?  Georgia has at least 3 potentially deadly scorers in Maten, Gaines, and J.J. Frazier, yet very few sets (there are exceptions) end in good looks at the basket.  Why?
• That's a rhetorical question, by the way.  Head on over to www.georgiabasketballblog.com and check the archives.
• Bless his heart, Houston Kessler canned a 3.  I don't expect his minutes to change at this point, so maybe that little bit of confidence will lead to another one or two falling at Auburn.
• Yante Maten hit another 3 too.  I'm telling you, that top of the key long ball will be a weapon for him next year - much like it was for Marcus Thornton his senior season.  The difference?  Maten's shot looks way better.
• Damian Jones has already said he's going to the NBA.  He's ready.
• It's hard to understand why Vanderbilt hasn't won more games this season.  I'm skeptical that Kevin Stallings' job is actually on the line, but just like Georgia fans, I imagine Commodore supporters are starting to reflect on what might have been.  The difference, of course, is that Vanderbilt still has a path to the tournament.
• Kenny Paul Geno should spend all summer cranking 3-pointers in the gym.  I really like what Geno adds on the floor, and I think a lot of the criticism directed his way is unfair, but getting that jumper consistent will make him a real weapon his senior season.
• E'Torrion Wilridge sure looked good in the first half, huh?  Apparently Mark Fox didn't think so.  Second half minutes: 0.

It's now SEC tournament or bust for the Georgia Bulldogs.  That doesn't mean there's nothing to play for.  Mark Fox, whether or not it's true, has to coach as if he's coaching for his job.  The freshmen, given their scant opportunities, have to start earning their minutes next year.  And Gaines and Mann simply have to control what they can control and finish strong.

Florida: post mortem

I don't think I'll have time to post the situation this week, but that's ok, because there is no situation.  Georgia blew its last chance at a nice win, and its only "good" win just lost at Missouri.  Barring a very unlikely run in the SEC tournament, this team is not dancing.

It doesn't have to be this way, but I'll leave that for another post.

For now, a post mortem, even if my heart isn't in it:

• Georgia wasted a great crowd.  The stands weren't full, but those that were there were loud.  Too bad they didn't get much to cheer for.
• Derek Ogbeide was an absolute beast in the first three minutes of the game.  He was "eating glass" as the team would say.  If you heard someone yelling, "No!" as Houston Kessler inexplicably replaced him three minutes into the game, you were probably sitting near me.
• The defense is good enough.  Plenty good enough.  If you hold a team to 19 first half points, you have to be up big at half.
• If you want to find a half in which Georgia put up more than 40 points, you have to go all the way back to the LSU game.  It came in a loss.
• It's not like this team lacks talent.  In fact, I'd go so far as to say Georgia had at least as much talent as Florida.  You think Michael White couldn't find a way to put up points with Yante Maten, Kenny Gaines, and J.J. Frazier?
• I don't know what Maten plans to work on this summer, but if he decides to extend his range out past the 3-point line, Mark Fox's "offense" will be the only defense that can stop him.
• Florida decided to take Maten away last night.  Fine.  That shouldn't be bad news!  Georgia should be a pick-your-poison type team on offense.  Instead, it was Frazier and Charles Mann playing hero-ball.  Hint: that's a bad formula.
• Why didn't White press Georgia all night?  It's almost like he felt bad about his two previous dismantlings of Mark Fox Georgia teams and wanted to throw him a bone.
• You think ESPN is tired of having the Bulldogs on Super Tuesday?  Two weeks in a row, just over 100 points scored.  Yuck.
• It's not helping that I'm watching Duke - North Carolina right now.  61 points have been scored, and there are 6 minutes left in the first half.

Basketball is supposed to be fun.  When's the last time you had fun watching this team?  Clemson?  Georgia Tech?  Oakland?

It's not the losing that gets me.  I'm a Georgia basketball fan.  I can handle losing.

It's how Georgia loses.

I'll keep watching.  I'll keep cheering.  But as hope for this season wanes, it's going to have to be hope for the future that keeps me going...

Mississippi State: post mortem

Don't feel too bad, Mississippi State.  Sometimes Yante Maten happens:

• That's two years in a row the Bulldogs from Mississippi have been victimized by a career day from a Georgia Bulldog.  Last year it was J.J. Frazier, and this year it was Maten, who had his way all night long.  He did get a tad sloppy with the ball, but that nit-picking, especially since he was hardly alone in that.
• If Maten extends that range out past the 3-point line next season he is going to be an absolute terror.
• Once Gavin Ware went to the bench with his second foul, Mark Fox was content to let Mississippi State shoot themselves to death, and they obliged.  Almost every shot was contested, too, unlike in the debacle against Kentucky.
• Ware's last 4 games: 28 pts, 14 pts, 21 pts, 6 pts.  Georgia took him away.  Yes, the foul trouble played into that, but it wasn't the whole story.
• Georgia won a game in which Kenny Gaines scored 0 points.  Amazing.
•  Let's not ignore what Charles Mann is doing.  The last few minutes of the game were bad, sure, but he went for 21/7 and has been playing quite well of late.  Maybe it's a sense of urgency as his last season winds down.  I don't know.  Whatever it is, I hope he harnesses it and carries it forward.
• Derek Ogbeide had 13 rebounds.  Are you excited about he and Maten in the post next season?  Of course you are.
• Mike Edwards splashed a free throw.  Unfortunately, this is noteworthy.
• Did you get worried when Mississippi State cut it to 10 after a 12-0 run?  I did.
• Four bad shooting nights in a row for J.J. Frazier.  We'll all be happy if he manages to break out of that mini-slump on Tuesday night.
• Georgia pressed and immediately forced a turnover.  It just about brought a tear to my eye.
• The reaction to State's press was less exciting.  In fact, the last 8 minutes of the game were downright disturbing, not because the game was ever in jeopardy (it wasn't), but because Florida is going to press for 40 minutes Tuesday night.  Mississippi State scored 13 points in the last 67 seconds of the game!  Georgia relaxed, and that can't happen against better teams.
• Unfortunately for Kenny Paul Geno, that was probably his last trip to Starkville.  He sure seems to have fun there!
• Quinndary Weatherspoon is worth getting excited about if you're a Mississippi State fan.  If Malik Newman sticks around and grows into the player he was supposed to be, that'll be a nice one-two punch.

Georgia needed a win and they got it.  Mark Fox needs to have the team just as prepared on Tuesday night.  Literally every game matters for this team right now.

I'll be in my seat cheering them on.  I hope you will too.

A walk in the lane

Well, at least Georgia's not the only team to lose on a missed traveling call.

[Deadspin]

Kentucky: post mortem

Where do you even begin with a game like this?  I normally try to start positive, but that's not going to be possible today:

• Georgia had 11 made baskets, and I missed 2 of them thanks to Michigan State and Purdue going into overtime.
• In fact, 5 of the 11 made field goals came in the first 6:30.  Two of them came in the last 2 minutes.  That leaves almost 32 minutes of game time where Georgia made just 4 baskets.  Inconceivable.
•  If Kentucky had stopped scoring at the 16:47 mark of the second half, they still would have won.
• Georgia somehow finished the game without a single steal or blocked shot.
• Literally the only positive for Georgia in the game?  Free throw shooting.  Part of me wishes they hadn't wasted a 23-27 night from the line on this game, and part of me is relieved they didn't shoot them like they normally do and lose by 45.
• Teams that have beaten Kentucky this year: UCLA, Ohio State, LSU, Auburn, Kansas, and Tennessee.  They are good, but they are not the juggernaut we're used to.
• Why did Houston Kessler and Kenny Paul Geno get such extensive minutes down the stretch?  If you want a silver lining to a blowout it's that you can get your freshmen some time on the court.  Fox's handling of his youngsters continues to boggle the mind...
• It's pretty safe to say that if you hold J.J. Frazier without a field goal, you're going to beat the Bulldogs handily.
• Let's not forget that Kentucky was without Alex Poythress...
• I don't know about you, but I didn't see any surefire lottery picks on the floor for Kentucky.  Jamal Murray has shot the lights out two games in a row now, so perhaps he'll play his way into one of those spots.  The bad news is that a lot of these guys may be back next year.

It's not that Georgia lost - losing in Rupp is no great shame.  It's how they lost.  The hope was that Georgia would return to the tournament and, at the same time, return to relevance.  That simply has not happened.  Whatever the "eye test" is, this team doesn't pass.

However, the team could technically still squeeze their way into the tournament field.  That seems insane to type, and it means Fox can't just pack it in and go all in on the freshmen (not that he'd be likely to do so anyway).  Besides, the team owes it to two great seniors to fight until the bitter end.  That fight commences in Starkville on Saturday (where Arkansas was just blown out).  As to which Georgia team decides to show up, your guess is as good as mine.

Unacceptable

If you want to make a case for firing Mark Fox, here's a good place to start:

Combined Stats for Georgia's 2 Biggest Games This Season

	Georgia	Opponent
FGM-A	26-103 (25%)	58-111 (52%)
3PM-A	7-29 (24%)	21-43 (49%)
FTM-A	34-46 (74%)	24-37 (65%)
REB	70	73
AST	13	34
STL	2	17
BLK	2	10
TO	30	17
PTS	93	161

That's...really bad.

How ironic is it that the only category Georgia won is free throw shooting?

How good is good enough?

Seth Emerson has a fantastic article up about Kentucky's perception of Georgia.  For those considering whether or not Fox has the program headed in the right direction, here's the money quote:

“They’re a quality program. A solid program,” Jerry Tipton, who has been covering Kentucky for the Lexington Herald-Leader for decades, said of Georgia: “Not an upper-echelon program, but not a lower-echelon program either.”

Really gets you swelling with pride, doesn't it?

So you tell me, in year 7, is that good enough?  Or should the standard be raised?

Read the whole thing.  There's a lot of good stuff in there, including a Kentucky coach who can't pronounce Yante Maten's name.  Hopefully he'll hear it enough tonight that he'll never forget...

[DawgNation]

Auburn: post mortem

There are losses that are so bad, they simply have to be "thrown out."  Texas A&M was one such game.  Sometimes the other team plays so well, and beats you so thoroughly, that there's almost nothing to learn.  You just move on.

The win over Auburn feels like that.  Georgia beat a relatively bad, desperately shorthanded team soundly, and there's almost nothing to be learned.  Move on:

• As much as I fret about Mark Fox's ability to take the program to the next level, another sellout would suggest that people are at least paying attention.  It was a good crowd that never really had a chance to affect the game because the outcome was hardly in doubt.
• Aren't you glad J.J. Frazier and Yante Maten are coming back next year?  Many saw Maten's progression coming, but Frazier has taken his game to a level very few saw coming.  He didn't even play all that well on Saturday and he still led the team in scoring.
• Then there's Maten, who throws up one of the quietest 12/12 lines imaginable to go along with 5 blocks.  I say quiet not because it didn't matter, but because it looks so easy you hardly notice.
• To me, one of the biggest plays in the game was Frazier drawing the offensive foul right before halftime.  Instead of Auburn dribbling out the clock and perhaps cutting the lead to 6 points, Georgia had a chance to extend it even further.  Smart play by a wily veteran.
• Auburn is going to live and die by the 3-point shot, and boy did they die a spectacular death on Saturday.
• Derek Ogbeide needs to learn to defend without fouling, and he needs to do so quickly.  He's not very useful sitting on the bench.  The fact that he grabbed 5 rebounds in 6 minutes certainly whets the appetite for more.
• It sure seems like E'Torrion Wilridge has turned some sort of corner.  He looks confident running the offensive sets, and his defense remains strong.
• Some people will hate me for saying this, but I love watching Cinmeon Bowers play.  Bruce Pearl started him at point guard!
• With that said, watching Yante Maten block his shot three possessions in a row was gratifying.  Good defense, big man.
• I bet Connor O'Neill wants those free throws back...
• Devon Gales got the biggest cheers of the night, and deservedly so.  I got choked up explaining to my wife who he is and what he's gone through.  It's wonderful the way the entire Bulldog Nation has embraced him.

Let's be clear - that game was boring, but I'm not complaining.  Good teams beat bad teams, and it doesn't always look pretty.  If Georgia is going to be a good team, we should expect and celebrate such games.

With that said, a whole different level of play will be required to spring the upset Tuesday night.  Will the Bulldogs finally step up and announce their intention to dance?

The situation

The Numbers

CBSSports RPI: 65

ESPN BPI: 53
RPIForecast.com: 75

CBS Bracketology: First four out

ESPN Bracketology: Out

 
The Resume

Good Wins: Georgia Tech, Clemson, Arkansas, South Carolina

Bad Losses: None

The Schedule

Potential Top 50 Wins: @Kentucky, Florida, @Vanderbilt, @South Carolina, Alabama

Potential Bad Losses: Auburn, @Mississippi State, @Auburn, Ole Miss

What It All Means

I almost didn't check the CBS Bracketology page, and when I did, I was as stunned as anyone to see Georgia anywhere near the field.  Apparently Jerry Palm was more impressed with the win over South Carolina than I was.

I still think we're about to see South Carolina slide down the RPI rankings as their schedule gets tougher.  Here's hoping they manage to stay in the top 50, and Georgia knocks them off again in Columbia.

And while it's still hard to make a case that Georgia belongs in the discussion, if you wanted to make that case, you'd start with the losses: all are to top 100 teams, and the worst home loss was to #58 Kansas State.  The Bulldogs were also without Derek Ogbeide for several losses, something the committee will have to consider if he continues to play well.

If Georgia goes 7-2 down the stretch, they're in.  Anything short of that and things start to get murky.  That's a tall order, which is why I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.  It does, however, set Saturday up as a must-win game at home versus a struggling Auburn team.  Get yourself to the Steg, get loud, and let's see what happens.

One more spot

If you're still of the mind that Georgia can play its way into the NCAA Tournament, an extra slot opened up today...

[Courier-Journal]

South Carolina: post mortem

Posting has been admittedly thin lately.  I'm traveling for work.  In fact, tonight's game was the first home game I've missed in two years.  So hey, I hope it was Georgia fans that bought my tickets, and I hope they enjoyed their evening:

• I have complained here about the lack of big wins for Georgia (and for good reason), not just this season but over the past 4 or 5 seasons.  Tonight was a big one.  Is South Carolina really a top 25 team?  Their record would suggest so, but I'm skeptical.  However, it's a top 50 win over a likely tournament team, and I'll take it.  Now we hope the Gamecocks keep winning and we drop them again in Columbia.
• J.J. Frazier: onions.
• Yante Maten is locked in right now.  He has so much diversity in his game.  Post moves, jumpers, drives...and that's just on the offensive end.
• Some huge minutes for E'Torrion Wilridge.  He must have done something to get back in Fox's good graces.  I like how he's defending, and his scoring will come as he gets more and more court time.
• I like the more aggressive Kenny Gaines we saw tonight.  He's not a great finisher, but he's better when he mixes in some slashing and driving.  It keeps the defense honest.
• Nice tip KPG.  If you want to watch someone who plays hard, watch him.
• 9 blocked shots for each team.  Yowza.
• Nothing really jumps off the stat sheet, honestly.  Georgia out-rebounded South Carolina, which is always huge for a Mark Fox-coached team, and they turned the ball over less than the Gamecocks as well.
• I've said this before, but the potential in all four freshmen is evident.  There is reason for excitement, even if this season ends up falling a little short of expectations.
• If you've been watching SEC basketball for a few years, it's hard to believe Michael Carrera is as good as he is right now.  He was all effort, little skill until he started to develop last season.  Now he's a guy who could log minutes for any team in the country.  However, he has always run hot, and the Bulldogs showed that it's still possible to get in his head.
• In a lot of ways, South Carolina is what Georgia was supposed to be: a veteran-led team with some young talent grinding out wins.
• Mike Edwards needs to shoot 10,000 free throws this offseason.  It's a serious liability for a player whose game should see him at the free throw line quite a bit over the next few years.

South Carolina's schedule doesn't get any easier, and this may have been the start of the Gamecocks coming back to Earth a bit.  No matter.  Georgia has a big win, and we can all breathe for a few more days.