Player Profile: Osahen Iduwe

Previously:  Cameron Forte 
Previously:  Kenny Paul Geno 
Previously:  Houston Kessler 
Previously:  Dusan Langura 
Previously:  Brandon Young 

Osahen Iduwe

Photo Credit:  247sports.com

Height:  6'11"
Weight:  225
Position:  C
Year:  Freshman
Role:  Eraser

Overview:  First thing's first.  When researching Iduwe, you should consider the following searches:  Fred Iduwe, Osahen Iduwe, Fred Iduwe Osahen, and Iduwe Osahen.

Until he is officially christened Big Tabasco, this blog will henceforth refer to our new center as Osahen Iduwe.

Iduwe is relatively new to the game of basketball, but, as they say, you can't teach height, and he brings a lot of that to the table.  His high school numbers are what you'd expect from a very tall, raw young man playing against smaller competition:  lots of blocks and rebounds.  Fortunately, that lines up perfectly with what Georgia needs from the young man:  lots of blocks and rebounds.

Expectations:  It's almost impossible to know what to expect from a guy like Iduwe.  He is fairly new to basketball, and the level of competition is about to go way up.  Most nights, though, he'll still be the tallest guy on the court.

I'm guessing it is going to take at least a year or two before we see the best of Osahen, but that doesn't mean he can't contribute right away.  An elite shot blocker can change a game without ever scoring the basketball, and that's what I'm hoping to see right out of the gate.  Even if he blocks, contests, or alters 4 shots a game, that's enough to take 4-6 points off the opponents' score.

As for his offense, an offensive rebound and putback per game would be a great place to start.  If we ever see polished post moves from Iduwe, it won't be this year.  That's fine, because we have enough scorers on this team to get by.

You may recall I am ordering these by player impact.  I have Osahen as our tenth most impactful player for the upcoming season.  If he performs to his potential defensively, he could easily find himself in the top 5 going into the 2015 season.

2014-15 Stats I Could Get Excited About:  1.4/3.2/1.7 points/rebounds/blocks per game.

Let's go Osahen, and let's go Dawgs!

Attendance figures

DawnoftheDawg runs down last year's attendance figures, and neither they nor I are surprised by what they show.

I do, however, think their ranking of the reasons for the low numbers is a tad off.  I suggest you click over and read the whole thing, but here's a summary of their list of reasons attendance was lower than it could have been:

1. Georgia is a football school in a football state.
2. Georgia basketball didn't do enough to connect with students.
3. The team got off to a poor start.
4. The home non-conference opponents were not appealing.

 Let me reorder to my preference and add my own two cents:

1. The team got off to a poor start.  After the first 5 games, who thought this team was going to be worth watching?  It's a fact that many of the fans coming to Georgia games are driving an hour or more to get there, and it's a fact that not many people want to drive an hour or more to watch bad basketball.  The poor start, along with an uninspired loss to Georgia Tech killed any chance at early season momentum.  I'm a pretty big fan, I went all the way to Charleston to watch the team, and while driving home wasn't even sure I wanted to go to any more games.
2. Georgia basketball didn't do enough to connect with students.  This has been a recurring issue during the Mark Fox era.  The head coach is also head of the marketing department, and Fox has fallen flat there.  Remember the positive press he received when he tweeted out that he'd be paying for students to attend the Vermont game?  Remember the excitement when students were admitted free?  We need more of that.  I've said here before I think students should be admitted free to all non-conference games.  You need 5% of the student population on board.  That's doable.
3. The home non-conference opponents were not appealing.  It was a bad home slate, and that's not all Mark Fox's fault.  Florida and Kentucky are guaranteed sellouts, and neither came to Athens last year. The bump from those two games alone likely would have put Georgia at about 75th in the nation in attendance.  Of course, the non-conference scheduling was ugly too.  All of the above will be rectified this year, and the attendance numbers will benefit because of it.
4. Georgia is a football school in a football state.  I continue to roll my eyes at this one.  Is basketball second fiddle to football?  Yes.  But you're not trying to fill a 90,000 seat arena.  Folks everywhere - and Athens is no different - have proven they'll turn out for a winner.  It will always be difficult to sell out on a Wednesday night.  But people will make the drive to see a winner.

 And that's the key, of course.  As I've said before, and as DawnoftheDawg says to end the article:

Just win, baby.

h/t DawnoftheDawg

SEC draft picks

When I saw that DraftExpress.com was predicting 8 SEC players will be drafted, I wasn't surprised.  My immediate reaction was, "Of course, but how many of those are from Kentucky?"  That's just an automated response at this point.

The surprisingly low answer is 2.

With a little thought, the small number from Kentucky makes perfect sense.  Many of their star freshmen chose to stay in Lexington, and they don't really have any upperclassmen to put into the draft.  There's a very real chance that 10% of the 2015 NBA draft will be Kentucky players alone.

Instead, it's the fact that 6 other players from the league may be drafted that caught me off guard.  In the end, the much-maligned (and for good reason) SEC could be responsible for 8 out of 60 selections in the draft.  That's not a bad tally, and it's ammo for coaches in the league.  "Our reputation as a league may be hurting right now, but we can still get you to the show."

h/t MrSEC.com

Moments

It's Friday, and there is not much going on, so I got to thinking about game- or season-defining moments from last year.

Georgia came into the game at Missouri with a disappointing 6-6 record.  The best team they had beaten was Wofford.  Waiting was a #21 Missouri Tigers team that had won 26 straight games at home.  Few actually believed Georgia had a chance to pull an upset, myself included (and I always think there is a chance).

The game was close throughout, and Georgia actually clawed its way to a three point lead with just over a minute left.  Charles Mann was at the line for two free throws.

Miss.

Miss.

A mere 15 seconds later, a Jordan Clarkson 3-pointer tied the game and we were headed to overtime.

Then this happened:

I distinctly remember thinking "game over" after the Earnest Ross 3-point play.  Then came the moment:

That deep Djurisic 3 (also in the video) changed everything about that overtime, and it began to change our perception about the 2013-14 Georgia Bulldogs.

Was Missouri a bit overrated?  Sure.  But that doesn't mean that win wasn't hard-earned.  It gave us hope that maybe, just maybe, Mark Fox had learned from non-conference play.  It showed us that what the team may have lacked in talent, they could more than make up for in hustle and heart (see:  43-34 rebounding advantage).  It gave us a hint that this group's best basketball may be in front of them after all.

Out, damned scaffolding

The scaffolding is coming down.  Good riddance.

It's nice to know there is a high degree of confidence that the glass isn't going to shatter and rain down on our heads, yes?

h/t Red and Black

Player Profile: Cameron Forte

Previously:  Kenny Paul Geno 
Previously:  Houston Kessler 
Previously:  Dusan Langura 
Previously:  Brandon Young 

Cameron Forte

Photo Credit:  247sports.com

Height:  6'7"
Weight:  220
Position:  F
Year:  Junior
Role:  Powerforwardwhatup
2013-14 Points/Rebounds/Assists Per Game:  3.4/2.0/.8

Overview:  What do you see when you look at Cameron Forte?  He's lanky.  He's a tad goofy.  He's got that tweener size that can be so valuable in college.  But really, who is he?

Forte averaged 36.2 points and 12.7 rebounds during his senior year of high school.  He then went to Howard junior college where he averaged 22.5 points over 37 games, shooting a gaudy 63% from the field.  Those scoring figures suggested he could play a key role in replacing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's scoring.

Reality showed otherwise.

Thus the reason I ask what you see when you look at Forte.  Because, honestly, as I sit here and try to recap his first year at Georgia, I'm not sure I have an answer myself.  I expected him to make a big splash last season, but the result was quite the opposite.  With every other player on the team, I have a moment that stands out in my mind.  A 3-pointer.  An unexpected stretch of dominance.  A defensive performance.  Not so for Forte, though.

Go back and look at those high school and junior college scoring numbers, though.  There is clearly some talent here and maybe, just maybe, 2014 is when we see it bloom.

Expectations:  Forte seems stuck at power forward.  I don't see the handles or outside shot necessary to be an effective 3, and I don't see the height or bulk to be a worthwhile 5.

That may be bad news, too, as power forward could be a position of strength for the 2014-15 Georgia Bulldogs.  Take a look at the players who Fox could conceivably play at the 4:  Marcus Thornton, Brandon Morris, Nemanja Djurisic, Yante Maten, Cameron Forte, Kenny Paul Geno, and Houston Kessler.

Dig deeper, though, and you realize many of those guys will be forced into the rotation elsewhere.  Odds are good, for example, that Thornton and Maten will see as much time at center as they will at power forward.  Brandon Morris' athleticism and developing outside shot mean he's a candidate for heavy minutes as a small forward.

So where does that leave Forte?  If you told me he'll be the first guy off the bench at the power forward position, I'd believe you.  If you told me he'll struggle to find minutes behind Thornton, Morris, Djurisic, and Maten, I'd believe you.

The reality is that I have no idea what to expect from Forte this year.  Absolutely no idea.

2014-15 Stats I Could Get Excited About:  4.7/4.5/.6 points/rebounds/assists per game.

Areas for Improvement:  First of all, Cameron shot 30% from the free throw line.  That's not good enough.  That's not close to good enough.  If he wants minutes, he needs to get to the line more often, and he needs to convert at the line way more often.

Second, his rebounding numbers are a bit thin.  With Donte' Williams gone, there will be a few more boards to go around.  Some of those need to find their way into Forte's hands.

Things I Learned About Cameron From GeorgiaDogs.com:  His nickname is Smoothiewhatup.  I have complained about nicknames here before (ahem, Houston Kessler), but I won't complain about this one.  That is a nickname.

Let's go Cameron, and let's go Dawgs!

Mitchell chooses Tech

Well that's a bummer.

If he really is transferring only to be close to grandma, then Tech was the obvious choice.  It's disappointing, as he would have been a very, very nice piece for Georgia this year or next, but it's not the end of the world.

It does make the Giddens announcement in a few weeks that much more important.  Unfortunately, Georgia fans probably need to be prepared to be disappointed then as well.

h/t AJC

Keeping them home

There are a number of high profile recruits coming out of Georgia in the next year or two - Daniel Giddens and Jaylen Brown of Wheeler, just to name two.  This is nothing unusual.  Georgia routinely produces elite basketball talent.

The fact that Giddens has said he'll be announcing in less than a month means we're bound to encounter one of the most common recruiting memes out there:  you have to keep these kids at home.

Whether it's a mumbled, "Why can't we keep these guys in the state of Georgia?" or a vociferous "Close the borders!" this topic is guaranteed to come up as you discuss Georgia basketball recruiting with your friends and colleagues.  (Also, can I please discuss Georgia basketball recruiting with your friends and colleagues, because when I try to do so with mine, this tends to be their reaction?)

The theory is that an inability to keep elite Georgia players in the state implies a recruiting deficiency that has to be fixed.  The underlying assumption is that being geographically close to an elite player offers an inherent recruiting advantage that Georgia is not taking advantage of.

But is it true?  I decided to run some numbers.  Data was gathered using ESPN's recruiting rankings.

2009
5-star players:  18
Players who stayed in-state:  4 - 22%
Players who stayed close* to in-state:   8 - 44%

2010
5-star players:  11
Players who stayed in-state:  3 - 27%
Players who stayed close* to in-state:   3 - 27%

2011
5-star players:  22
Players who stayed in-state:  8 - 36%
Players who stayed close* to in-state:   15 - 68%

2012
5-star players:  19
Players who stayed in-state:  6 - 32%
Players who stayed close* to in-state:  13 - 68%

2013
5-star players:  22
Players who stayed in-state:  6 - 27%
Players who stayed close* to in-state:   12 - 55%

2014
5-star players:  29
Players who stayed in-state:  7 - 24%
Players who stayed close* to in-state:   16 - 55%

Before we go any further, there are plenty of flaws with my methodology.  First, it would probably be worth extending it to the 4-star players as well.  Second, in the case of prep schools, I considered the location of the prep school, not the player's original home state (which, in many cases, could be different).  If I find myself with (a lot) more time in the future, I may attempt to fine tune these points.

For now, though, the numbers imply that being geographically close to an elite basketball player doesn't drastically increase your chances of landing a commitment.  Why is that?

It is because a select group of schools are getting commitments from these players regardless of geography.  Staying home to play for Houston - as Danuel House did in 2012 - is very different than staying home to play for North Carolina or Duke.  In fact, if you filter the above lists and remove the current recruiting powerhouses from consideration, you're left with 14 kids where proximity may have played a significant role in their decision (Isaiah Whitehead going to Seton Hall, for example).  That's good for 12% overall.

Want a couple more staggering statistics?  17% of the 5-star recruits between 2009 and 2014 went to a single school:  Kentucky.  78% of the 5-stars ended up at one of just 16 schools.  Put another way, that means around 78% of the elite, 5-star talent ends up playing basketball for about 5% of all division 1 schools.

The reality seems to be that, unless you are amongst that group of schools, your chances of getting a 5-star to play basketball at your university are slim to none, even if he grows up in the shadow of your arena.

Does all of this mean Mark Fox shouldn't center his recruiting on the state of Georgia?  Absolutely not.  What it does mean is that "keep them in state," while a nice soundbite, doesn't come close to capturing the reality of recruiting in college basketball today, and losing a 5-star kid from the state of Georgia, while disappointing, may reflect more on college basketball as a whole than it does on the coaches in Athens.

And oh-by-the-way, what do all of those 16 schools that are recruiting at such a high level have in common?  They win.

It presents a bit of a Catch-22, of course, if you can't win without talent, but you can't get talent without winning, but Mark Fox shouldn't use it as an excuse and neither will I.  Put together two more 20-win seasons (a possibility given the talent already in Athens), and things may just start to change.

h/t ESPN

*I have no mileage or metric for this.  It is not scientific.  It was purely my judgment call.

The NBA calls

It is only a matter of time before John Calipari leaves for the NBA.  As it turns out, it almost happened this year.

The article suggests that, had the Harrison twins gone pro, Cal might have gone with them, and that makes total sense.  However, since they stayed, Calipari has a team that is an obvious #1 with a very real chance to win another championship.

Just a guess, but if that happens, he's good and gone.

h/t Yahoo! Sports

Giddens announcing

Daniel Giddens, a 4-star center out of Wheeler High School, will announce his college decision on July 4.  All the experts have him going to Ohio State, but the same experts had him going to Louisville late last year, and they didn't even make his final list.

Why is this a big deal for Georgia?  It's a big deal because Giddens would fill the most immediate need on the team - skill at the 5 position.

Three months ago, not landing Giddens would have been crushing.  Now, due to the additions of Maten and Iduwe, missing on Giddens would certainly sting, but it won't feel like the death blow it otherwise would have.


I was about to launch into some excited speculation on what the rotation would look like with Giddens in the lineup.  I then deleted that speculation.  No sense getting ahead of ourselves, especially if he really is an Ohio State lean.

h/t 247sports.com

A new day

I have mixed feelings about Bruce Pearl.  On the one hand, he's a cheater, a liar, and a snitch.  On the other hand, he's a good basketball coach and an entertainer.

My feelings about John Calipari can wait for another day.

I do not, however, have mixed feelings about their desire to raise the profile of SEC basketball.

Those of you who can remember about a decade ago will know that the SEC is capable of fielding some pretty good basketball teams.  Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia all trotted out quite a bit of talent in the early 2000's.  Throw in Mississippi State, LSU, and even Auburn occasionally and you had a conference that was competitive at a national level.

Fast-forward to today and the SEC is a talented-but-top-heavy conference with big dreams:

"This is as focused as I've seen this league and these coaches and the programs and the ADs in how do we move this ball forward," Kentucky coach John Calipari said. "We had three teams in the Elite Eight, two teams in the Final Four, a team in the national championship game and still ... come on now. Our goal is let's get half of our teams in within the next three years and two of us playing for a national championship."

What Calipari understands is that a good SEC is good for everyone in the conference.  There is a very real chance that Kentucky will go 16-0 in conference next year.  Wouldn't it be better if they did that in a conference that wasn't a national punchline?

Enter non-conference scheduling:

Better nonconference schedules could help. The league hired former NCAA tournament guru Greg Shaheen as a scheduling consultant last year.

Shaheen made his second consecutive trip to the annual SEC meetings this week, giving detailed presentations to coaches and athletic directors. It's essentially scheduling analytics, which show coaches that who they play in November and December affects everyone they play -- fellow SEC teams -- in January and February.

I have to wonder what those presentations looked like.  Did he show Mark Fox an Appalachian State logo with a big frowny face next to it?

This isn't rocket science:

"If every program just took the bottom-feeder off its schedule -- just one bottom-feeder -- then we go from seventh in RPI to second," Pearl said. "What's best for the league is what's best for the upper half of the league. Let's look at the best playing against the best because that's what fans want, that's what television wants and that ultimately is going to get us more teams in the tournament."

The aforementioned Appalachian State finished with an RPI of 336 last year.  Scheduling can be difficult, I know, but Georgia should not be playing teams with an RPI of 336 (and in case you're curious, last year it was Jacksonville, at 331).

Mark Fox has definitely gotten this message.  The non-conference schedule this coming season is tough, but not brutal.  It is good enough to set up a tournament run, and ultimately, having teams in the dance is the best way to raise the conference profile.

h/t ESPN

Mitchell visiting

Charles Mitchell should be in Athens tomorrow.  He's also visiting Georgia Tech next week.

The state schools have the advantage because of the proximity to his ailing grandmother.  One would think Tech would have two slight advantages:

1. They have a more immediate need in the post (yes, really).  Who would have thought that would be the case three months ago?
2. They are closer - albeit by an hour or less - to Marietta where his grandmother lives.

Despite that, I wouldn't count Georgia out of this thing.  There is real momentum in Athens right now, and things are not trending quite as positive in Atlanta.  Mitchell would be the cherry on top of a great couple of months.

h/t AJC

But maybe he's 76

ESPN dropped a list of the 50 best coaches in college basketball (present, not career), and they also threw in 25 who "just missed" on the sidebar.  Mark Fox is nowhere to be seen.

Ok, technically they haven't revealed the top 25 yet, but he won't be there, nor should he be.

Do I think it's a snub?  Not at all.  Keep in mind, a top 75 represents about 20% of all Division I coaches.  That's pretty good company.

However, if Georgia earns an at-large bid to the tournament in 2015, I'd expect to see him on next year's list.  Considering what he inherited (a talented yet poorly-coached bunch), what he's dealt with (some poorly-timed NBA early entries), where he's working (a school with no consistent track record), and what he'd be bringing back (a very talented senior trio with a nice supporting cast), top 75 seems reasonable if the team excels this season.

I have been critical of Mark Fox in the past, and will continue to be critical as appropriate.  There have been missteps and missed opportunities.  If he can keep the momentum from this offseason going, though, a top 75 coach and a top 25 program could be right around the corner.

Can I get an amen?

h/t ESPN

Player Profile: Taylor Echols

Previously:  Kenny Paul Geno
Previously:  Houston Kessler 
Previously:  Dusan Langura 
Previously:  Brandon Young

Taylor Echols

Photo Credit:  USA Today

Height:  6'1"
Weight:  160
Position:  G
Year:  Senior
Role:  Steady As She Goes
2013-14 Points/Rebounds/Assists Per Game:  1.7/.5/.4

Overview:  Taylor Echols hit a 3-pointer in Rupp Arena, and no one can ever take that away from him.

He made the team via open tryouts before the 2012-13 season, and if you make a Division 1 college basketball team via open tryouts and end up hitting a 3-pointer in Rupp Arena, that's something you can tell your grandchildren in 50 years while you're bouncing them on your knee.

"The final score?  Well, I'm getting old...I just can't remember...I think we won by 3."

There was more, though.  Taylor hit ten more 3-pointers last season (interestingly, all but one of those was at Stegeman), including 3 in the same game against Lipscomb while filling in for an injured Charles Mann.  That's good for 33 points.  Once you add in all of his other scoring, that gets Taylor to...33 points scored last season.

Yes, he's a specialist.  In fact, of the 33 shots Echols took  last year, only 2 of them came from inside the arc.  I'm fine with this.  If you're the third point guard off the bench, running the offense and hitting some threes is a fantastic way to earn your minutes.  Be steady.  Be predictable.

Taylor's minutes took a hit as the season wore on and J.J. Frazier began to come into his own as Charles Mann's primary backup.  I would expect that trend to continue into this season, so I don't think there will be a huge opportunity for him to earn more minutes.  Instead, he will have to maximize whatever minutes he gets.

Expectations:  More of the same.  I don't see Taylor's minutes changing a whole lot, so I expect his stats to look almost identical this season.  Foul trouble or an injury at the 2 (where he could play if needed) could certainly change that, but those things are obviously impossible to project.  I have noted this with other players, but the best way for Taylor to get on the court is to find and make open threes.  It is hard to keep a guy on the bench when they present a clear and present danger from the 3-point line.

Area For Improvement:  Taylor's assist-to-turnover ratio is just south of 1.  Georgia won't need flashy plays from him, but not turning the ball over should be his primary mission when he's in the game.

2014-15 Stats I Could Get Excited About:  1.1/.3/.6 points/rebounds/assists per game.  .3 turnovers or less per game sweetens the pot.

Things I Learned About Taylor From GeorgiaDogs.com:  The San Antonio Spurs are his favorite team.  See?  Steady, steady, steady.

Let's go Taylor, and let's go Dawgs!