Murray State: gut feeling

My gut says this game is a must-win for Georgia.  Of course it technically isn't - there is no such thing this early in the season.  But a loss here tells me this team has problems that aren't going to be easily fixed.

My gut says Georgia Basketball Blog is right: the new officiating strategy is going to hurt Georgia, at least at first.  The additional trips to the line will be cancelled out by an inability to consistently hit free throws and the necessity to play softer defense.  I think the NCAA has over-corrected so far, and I hope they're able to find a happy medium.

My gut says Kenny Gaines has a big game tonight.  I suspect he's been stewing over those offensive fouls all week.

My gut says Georgia would be looking for win number 2 if Juwan Parker was healthy.  Unfortunately, that doesn't seem likely to happen anytime soon...and maybe ever.

My gut says, unless there's foul trouble, Houston Kessler gets less minutes tonight and Mike Edwards gets more.

My gut says Georgia wins tonight - barely.

The season ain't over

It hasn't even started yet.

For those of you tempted to write off the Bulldogs after one loss, remember, it can happen to anyone.

Make some noise in Stegeman on Friday, and let's get the train back on the tracks.

Chattanooga: post mortem

Let's start by saying the season is not over.  This isn't football.

Let's also point out, as many have, that Chattanooga is a pretty good team that's probably going to win their conference and go to the NCAA tournament.  It's not an embarrassing loss.

With that said, Georgia should have won this game.  Georgia beat this same team by 31 points two years in a row, and Chattanooga is not 31 points better than they were last year.  It was a disappointing home opener for a Georgia team hoping to "take the next step:"

• Thanks to Friday traffic (these weekday drives from Alpharetta are brutal), it was already 11-3 by the time my butt hit my seat, and the energy had been completely sucked out of the building.  Credit the Mocs for that.  They didn't come to play, they came to win.  Their team - and bench - brought energy all night long.
• If Georgia defends the 3-point line as poorly as they did last night, it's going to be a long season.  Vanderbilt might win by 100.
• Here are some numbers explaining the Georgia loss:
• 21: turnovers.  7 for Charles Mann.  Ugh.
• 17: number of missed free throws.  Chattanooga missed 11, but about half of those were in overtime.  If Georgia takes care of business at the line, they don't just win - they blow the Mocs out of the building.
• 16: number of minutes for Kenny Gaines before he fouled out.  Is the result different if Kenny is on the floor for 30 minutes?  Almost certainly.
• 15: number of offensive rebounds given up by Georgia.  If you're not defending the 3-point line, and you're not rebounding, what are you doing exactly?
•  Does the fact that E'Torrion Wilridge got 26 minutes mean Fox thinks he's farther along than the other freshmen, or is it just that injuries and fouls dictated that strategy?  My guess is a little bit of both.  Fortunately, there was more good than bad with Toe.  Now get in the gym and shoot a couple hundred free throws.
• I'd rather see more of Mike Edwards and less of Houston Kessler.  Kessler is a great kid, but his minutes feel wasted.
• Keep shooting, Kenny.
• Keep shooting, J.J.
• Keep working, Yante.  Way more good than bad out of him tonight, and remember, he's just sophomore. 
• Does Juwan Parker make a difference if he plays tonight?  I'm betting he does, particularly his experience on the defensive end.
• A word on the officiating: it was painful.  It reminded me of the atrocity that was Georgia's loss to Davidson in Charleston two years ago.  Just like then, officials are trying to adjust to the new points of emphasis this season.  Let's hope things settle down a bit.  Basketball is a game of rhythm, and even though the score was much higher, I doubt anyone particularly enjoyed watching that game last night.
• Another word on the officiating: it did feel a tad uneven at times, yes (Chattanooga was called for more fouls, sure, but Georgia was way more aggressive in trying to get the ball inside), but when you blow as many chances as Georgia did at the line, you're not allowed to complain about the zebras.
• As bad as it all was, but for a circus layup by (I think) Casey Jones, Georgia still wins the game. 

Because of the schedule, Georgia is a team without much margin for error.  That margin just got slimmer.  Wins will not be easy to come by this year, and I think the Dawgs need at least 8 in the non-conference.  There are no gimmes.

See you next Friday.

Season predictions

We're only 1 day away from tipping off the 2015-16 men's basketball season.  Let's celebrate with some wild, unfounded, and completely worthless predictions from yours truly!

1. Georgia will average over 70 points/game this season.  It will be the first time they've done that since 2006-07 under Dennis Felton.
2. Georgia will lose at least one non-conference game they shouldn't.
3. Georgia will win at least 20 games for the third season in a row.  It will be the second time in program history, and the first under a single coach.
4. Vanderbilt will continue to annoy me by shooting 57 3-pointers per game.  Move the arc back already!
5. Kentucky will win the SEC regular season, but they will not win the SEC tournament.  Whereas last year's team was one of the most talented in history, this year's version strikes me as somewhat overrated...but still very, very good.
6. Georgia will not earn a double-bye again this year, but they will make it back to the SEC tournament semifinals.  This isn't because Georgia is getting worse.  The conference is just getting better.
7. Georgia will be one of the last four in, and they'll finally win an NCAA tournament game - in Dayton.  It will be the first NCAA tournament win for Georgia since 2002.
8. Six SEC teams will make the NCAA tournament, and three of them will still be alive in the Sweet 16.
9. None of them will be alive in the Final Four.
10. Arizona will cut down the nets after beating North Carolina in the championship.  This will be Roy Williams' last chance at a title as the program buckles under the weight of intense NCAA sanctions as a result of the academic ha ha just kidding he's untouchable.

If I remember I'll check back on these after the season so we can all get a good laugh at how far off I was.

And feel free to play along at home.

Is it time for basketball to make a move?

Photo credit: Red and Black

It pains me to say it, but Georgia football may be wandering the wilderness for a few years.  An uninspiring win over Kentucky aside, things are not going well on the gridiron.

I have to ask, though: is this an opportunity for basketball to expand its footprint?

There is no rule stating that a school can only have one good major sports program, and while Georgia will be a "football school" for the foreseeable future, the current state of affairs makes me think another tournament run out of the basketball team might add valuable numbers to the fan base.  I became a fan for life in college, and 15 years later I'm a devoted season-ticket holder putting money back into the program.  A healthy program will add new fans like me every year.  Why might this be a critical season?

Last year was actually fun.  The Ole Miss and Arkansas games were great environments.  The team went to the tournament and played an eventual Final Four team without embarrassing themselves.  On top of that, the Kentucky game, a loss, was the most fun I've ever had at a live sporting event, and I guarantee a lot of new fans were minted that Tuesday night.  I promise you last season piqued some interest.  Another fun year, and the program could really pick up some momentum.

The home schedule is no joke.  There are some interesting teams coming to Stegeman Coliseum this year: Clemson, Kansas State, and Georgia Tech, just to name a few.  The names are good enough to get a few hundred fans per game that wouldn't otherwise be there.  Wins would keep those fans coming back.  Stegeman is an incredible experience when there's energy and excitement.

The freshmen look promising.  You know what gets fans even more excited than the present?  The future.  Winning now is critical, but getting people thinking, "Hey, we're going to be really good in a year or two," is just as important.  Every freshman showed something during the exhibition game, and there's reason to believe the future is bright.  Let's hope these guys build some big leads so Mark Fox can show off what the young pups are capable of.

Just to be clear, I don't want the basketball team to steal football fans.  I want football fans to see that what's happening in Stegeman is worth paying attention to.  If Georgia can run off 7 or 8 wins to start the season - a real possibility - things might get fun fast.  Stay tuned.

Armstrong State: post mortem

What did we learn last night?  Almost nothing!

Winning is not the goal of an exhibition game for a team like Georgia.  Not losing while learning as much about your team as possible is the goal, and I think Mark Fox accomplished that.  Ignore the final score.  Georgia isn't quite "name the score" good, but they could have put 80 points on the board without much difficulty:

• Nice turnout.  If you moved everyone to the bottom bowl it would have been nearly full.  Not bad for a meaningless basketball game at UGA.
• Fox had all 4 scholarship freshmen in the game less than 10 minutes in.  It's immediately obvious that this is the most talented class he's brought to Georgia.  Each one had at least one "moment" in the game:
• Turtle Jackson had a steal and breakaway dunk for Georgia's first field goal of the game.  That came on the heels of a Michael Edwards blocked shot.
• Edwards had several nice moves in the post, and while he'll struggle against teams with more size, the skill is very evident.
• E'Torrion Wilridge canned his first jumper (a 3) and had the dunk of the night after driving baseline in the second half.
• Derek Ogbeide, who seemed to struggle the most of the 4, had two nice, assertive post moves, one a miss and one the final basket of the game.
• Kenny Gaines and Charles Mann are...well...Kenny Gaines and Charles Mann for all the good and bad that entails.  And it's way more good than bad...
• Houston Kessler passed up a couple of 3-point shots he could have taken in rhythm, and he missed another after he thought way, way too hard about whether or not to shoot.  He needs to be more assertive.
• Juwan Parker is still struggling with his outside shot.  That may be something he never solves in his time at Georgia.
• Iduwe looks healthier, but he's not ready.  I don't think we'll see many meaningful minutes out of him this year.
• Perhaps my favorite moment of the night: Kyle Callanan driving towards the basket, seeing Yante Maten waiting, and choosing to jump, turn, and throw the basketball out of bounds as opposed to challenging him.  Honestly, it was probably the right choice.
• Good work on the video board.  The "get to know the players" segments were fantastic - so much so I was actually disappointed when I missed one heading for the bathroom - and the hype video with 4 minutes left gave me chills at the end of a blowout exhibition win.  Any time is a good time to use that Kenny Gaines dunk against Kentucky...
• And good work on the halftime show.  I'm 34, and I admit I had to look up K CAMP to figure out who he is, but you know who didn't have to look him up?  Every college student at the game.  Ryan Cameron and K CAMP is certainly better than tricycle races...
• I stopped at the Wendy's off Loganville Highway and 316 and they had excellent counter service.  I point this out because I had literally never been to a Wendy's with good counter service before last night.  Normally a 3 person line at Wendy's is a guaranteed 15 minute wait, but I was in and out.  Oh, and the drink machines were not behind the counter.  Bravo!

Again, not much to learn.  Georgia did what they should have done against a completely over-matched team: blocked a ton of shots, grabbed a ton of rebounds, caused a ton of misses, and got out healthy.  The real fun starts next Friday.  See you there.

I'm baaaaaaaaack

Listen, blogging is hard.  Blogging well is even harder.  Blogging well as a one-man show is nigh impossible.

I set a high standard for myself when I started this blog.  My goal was to emulate Get the Picture, the gold standard of Georgia football blogs.  I was shooting for short-form fan commentary on Georgia basketball and, to a lesser extent, SEC basketball.

I tried to write things I would want to read, knowing that no one out there was doing that for Georgia hoops.  It was always fun, but it was also much more time-consuming than I would have imagined.

Eventually, life just got in the way.  Things happened.  I got busy.  I stopped posting.  I considered for months putting up a final goodbye post, never imagining I'd have time to write again, but I couldn't bring myself to do it.  I didn't want to slam the door.

So today, I'm cracking the door back open just a little bit.  The exhibition game is tonight, and my season tickets are sitting right next to me on my desk, and I'm just so excited to get this season started that I had to write something about it.  I still can't find a basketball blog I love, so I'll keep trying to create one.

I have no idea how frequently I'll be able to post.  It won't be like it used to, but I'll try to get game post mortems (my favorite posts to write) up as often as possible.  I'm not a coach or a tactician.  I'm a fan, and my writing will continue to reflect that.  Thanks to those of you who will see this and decide to read again.  I hope you'll interact with me.  We're in for a season of ups and downs, so let's ride it out together.

With that said, I clearly don't have time to get through a bunch of player profiles.  Instead, here's a question I have about each player on the roster:

• Charles Mann: how will the refs officiate him?  Two years ago, it was a free throw parade.  Last year, close calls were charges.  How the refs treat Charles is going to go a long way towards determining the Bulldogs' success this season.
• Kenny Gaines: can he stay healthy?  I know Kenny is tired of hearing about his foot.  When healthy, I believe Kenny is the best player on the team.  If he were 3 or 4 inches taller he'd be getting draft buzz.  A healthy season out of Gaines means trouble for the rest of the SEC.
• Yante Maten: can he pick up the rebounding slack?  Yante can score.  He can also block shots.  Can he replace Marcus Thornton's rebounding?  We shall see.
• J.J. Frazier: can he find shots now that the league is onto him?  After that explosion in Starkville last year, the league learned not to let J.J. shoot.  Can he still find opportunities?
• Juwan Parker: has the 3-point shot come around?  If he beats the yips, Juwan Parker might be the second or third best scorer on the team.
• Kenny Paul Geno: will the effort translate?  No one plays harder than Geno, and if that translates into production at the SF spot, it allows Parker to play his more natural position and takes pressure off of E'Torrion Wilridge.
• Derek Ogbeide: can he defend and rebound in the SEC? Ogbeide is a full grown man, and Georgia won't need him to score much.
• Turtle Jackson: can he find minutes?  Jackson steps into a guard heavy roster.
• E'Torrion Wilridge: can he shoot?  Word is that Wilridge may already have one of the better shots on the team.
• Mike Edwards: can he play big?  He IS big, but will he play that way?
• Houston Kessler: does he have some clutch 3's in his back pocket?  Kessler looked good shooting the ball in the open practice.
• Osahen Iduwe: is he a basketball player?  He's tall, and he's finally healthy, so now we find out what he can do.
• Brandon Young: can he score?  A tougher schedule likely means less garbage time this year.
• Connor O'Neill: will he play?

Those are mine.  What are yours?

See you at the game tonight!