Game card: Missouri

Opponent:  Missouri
Record:  8-20 (2-13)
Best player:  Johnathan Williams III
Line:  Georgia -14

Why Georgia will win:  Missouri's record is pretty reflective of their talent level.  They just aren't very good.  Only two players average double-figure scoring, and they've yet to win a true road game.  There's no stat to point to that says Georgia shouldn't win this game.

Why Georgia will lose:  Missouri is coming off a win against an undermanned Florida team, and they have nothing to lose, so expect them to come out firing.  Namon Wright hit 6 3-pointers against Florida and should be playing with confidence.  Then there's Georgia.  Are they looking ahead to Kentucky?  Are they feeling a little too good about the win over Ole Miss?

What I think will happen:  Do we finally get to enjoy a blowout in conference play?  Not really.  Nothing is that easy with this team.  Georgia wins, though, 72-59.

There's hot, and then there's Rathan-Mayes hot

Remember that time J.J. Frazier got hot and scored 37 points against Mississippi State?  Turns out J.J.'s got nothing on Xavier Rathan-Mayes:

Wednesday night, for about five minutes, FSU guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes was unstoppable. He kept hitting buckets against Miami; at one point, he had 26 straight points without missing a shot.

When it was all over, he had dropped 30 points in under 5 minutes.

Of course, Florida State still managed to lose the game, and Rathan-Mayes "only" finished with 35...so I guess Frazier still has that going for him.

[Deadspin]

Bracketology 101

I continue to believe Georgia's NCAA Tournament situation is pretty simple:  one more regular season win gets them in (Missouri, Kentucky, or @Auburn).

That's one man's opinion, though, and hardly scientific.  The only opinion that matters is the collective opinion of the selection committee.  So what will they be looking at?

Jerry Palm is here to help.

The whole article is a good read, but I'll point out a few things of interest to Georgia fans.  Like this:

There is a common perception that how a team is playing at the end of the year is more important. Many people feel it should be. None of those people are on the committee. That used to be a factor, which is likely why many people still think it is. They used to track how teams performed in their last 12 games, but got rid of that several years ago. Now, it's hard to look at those team sheets and even determine how a team has done lately in your head because the dates of the games are not prominently displayed, or even formatted like a date. The committee is committed to the concept that every game counts equally no matter when it's played.

Because two of Georgia's worst losses came near the end of the season, this should be considered good news.  The losses to Auburn and South Carolina may be fresh in our minds, but they hold no additional weight just because they are recent.

Then there's this:

Injuries, suspensions, and things of that nature are reported separately, but rest assured, the committee knows all about whatever problems a team has had over the course of the season. It's not terribly important, though. In general, a team's profile is its profile. The committee will not assume a team would have won a game it lost had it been at full strength. They also will not ignore the game. There may be some slight seeding consideration given, but sometimes that doesn't even happen. Those adjustments tend to happen more to teams that have lost key players for the season rather than for a few games.

It's harder and harder to deny that injuries played at least some part in the losses to South Carolina (twice) and Auburn.  It may not seem like much, but if it's enough to move Georgia from, say, an 8 to a 7, that's enormous.

For fans, this is when it gets fun.  Georgia is playing for something, and that's exciting.  For players?  Tune it out.  Just win, baby.

[CBS Sports]

Ole Miss: post mortem

It's barely worth pointing out, but if anything resembling that Georgia team had shown up in Athens against South Carolina and Auburn, both would have been run out of town.

I am something like 0-5 in my predictions of late, and I'm not the least bit embarrassed.  Who can claim to understand this team?  The closest I can come to explaining things is this:  when their back is against the wall, this team responds, and when it's not, they're complacent.

You and I both knew Georgia needed another road win to feel good about their chances on Selection Sunday.  Don't think the team didn't know that as well.  The question is quickly becoming how to engage them when they feel like their season is not on the line...something Mark Fox might have to address as soon as this coming Saturday.

I admit I wasn't able to focus 100% of my attention on the game last night, so help me out if I missed anything:

• Put simply, if Gaines, Thornton, Djurisic, and Mann combine for 67 points, Georgia is going to win 9 out of 10 times.  This was the best we've seen these guys play as a unit in a month, so yeah, maybe they are getting a little healthier.
• I continue to believe that Gaines, in particular, has been the missing ingredient.  He's a rhythm shooter, and not having a healthy Marcus Thornton may have affected him more than anything.  However, we also saw some aggression out of him last night that has been lacking (boy did I want him to dunk that ball on the break).
• And one more thing about Gaines - his defense continues to be on point.  Stefan Moody - one of the hottest players in the conference - was 2/11 from behind the 3-point line, and it's not because he just had an "off night."  Georgia hit a lot of threes last night because they took good shots.  Moody missed a lot of threes because he was forced to take bad ones.
• Speaking of the 3-point shot, watching Ole Miss can be a bit painful.  All they want to do is jack up threes, and last night they hit just enough of them to avoid being run out of their own building.  It's not particularly fun to watch, and it's why I've long believed that moving the 3-point line back to where the NBA has it would help increase scoring.  It might stop guys like Martavious Newby (career 27%) from hoisting three of them on a night where Ole Miss really could have used him in the paint.
• Cameron Forte is starting to do some real work on the glass.  I like that.  I still wish Fox could convince him to stop trying to handle the ball, though.
• Tough night for Yante Maten from a foul standpoint, but I want to point out that he's made 15 of his last 19 free throw attempts.  That's worth commending.
• In fact, it was another solid night from the line for the whole team.  And don't look now, but Charles Mann is shooting > 80% from the stripe since the Tennessee game.
• Marcus Thornton should have a green light on shooting that 3-pointer from the top of the key.  He's developed that into a nice weapon.
• Did anyone doubt that Ole Miss was going to come back and make a game of it?  Georgia can turn a 10-point lead into a 2-point lead as efficiently as any team in the country.

Does this Missouri game look like a trap game, or what?  If Georgia decides they have time to feel good about themselves, or if they decide they can afford to look ahead to Kentucky, they will get beat.  Fox needs to have these guys locked in.  Time to finish the drill.

Rock the Steg PSA

Just remember, when you storm the court after the Bulldogs knock off Kentucky next week, keep your elbows to yourself.

[ESPN]

Game card: Ole Miss

Opponent:  Mississippi
Record:  19-8 (10-4)
Best player:  Stefan Moody
Line:  Ole Miss -4.5

Why Georgia will win:  They already did it once, right?  Apparently the Bulldogs are road warriors, now, taking care of business in College Station and Tuscaloosa.  They are inching back towards health, and Marcus Thornton, in particular, is looking like his old self.  Also, believe it or not, 5 of Mississippi's losses have come at home.

Why Georgia will lose:  Since the loss in Athens, Ole Miss is 8-1, and the only loss was by 1 point to a ranked Arkansas team.  It has been addition by subtraction, as the "loss" of Marshall Henderson has allowed guys like Moody and Jarvis Summers to shine.  Moody, in particular, has been on fire of late, and he does not miss from the free throw line.  Georgia won by largely holding Summers in check during the first meeting, but that's not likely to happen again.

What I think will happen:  Your guess is as good as mine.  Ole Miss is hot, and I'm betting they stay that way.  Dawgs lose 68-61.

The situation

The Numbers

CBSSports RPI:  37

ESPN BPI:  30

CBS Bracketology:  10 seed (on the bubble)

ESPN Bracketology:   9 seed

 
The Resume

Good Wins:  Seton Hall, @Kansas State, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, @Texas A&M, @Alabama

Bad Losses:  @Georgia Tech, Auburn, South Carolina

The Schedule

Potential Top 50 Wins:  @Ole Miss, Kentucky

Potential Bad Losses:  Missouri, @Auburn

What It All Means

Georgia Tech had a chance to do Georgia a pretty big favor last night by beating the shorthanded Louisville Cardinals and potentially working their way back into the top 100.  Instead, they blew a 13-point second half lead and lost at home.

Fortunately, Kansas State did what Tech could not.  They beat Kansas at home and slid right back into the top 100.

One of the best things Georgia has going for them is their record in true road games:  6-4.  The committee cares about this, and a road win early in the season (Kansas State) holds just as much weight as a bad loss at home late in the season (Auburn).

You'll also notice the ESPN BPI looks a little better than the RPI.  That's because BPI takes injuries into account, and it's hard to talk about this Georgia team without mentioning the injuries.  Regardless of how you feel about Mark Fox, the season would probably look quite different had a few guys stayed healthy.

I continue to believe a win over Missouri and any other team (in the regular season) will get Georgia into the tournament.  If Georgia goes 1-3, then they'll enter the SEC tournament with work to do.  If they lose to Missouri, they're likely out unless they beat Kentucky and win a game on the road.

This is all speculation, of course.  The good news is that Georgia is in the hunt.  The bad news is there is work to be done, and it just shouldn't have to be this way...