Donovan out at Florida

Billy Donovan - unless he pulls a Billy Donovan - will be the next head coach of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Let's not mince words here.  Donovan was an all-time great hire by Florida who pulled a moribund program up from the muck and mire and made it elite.  Replacing him will not be easy.  The fact that it's nearly May complicates things more.  Does Florida try to go steal a coach now, or do they turn it over to Anthony Grant for a year?  If they do give it to Grant, does he have a chance to earn the job (please make this happen)?

The SEC coaching ranks got a lot weaker today, but Georgia's position in the conference likely improved.  I'm happy to make that trade.

Best of luck to Coach Donovan in the show.  I suspect he'll do just fine.

[ESPN]

Donovan to the NBA?

Sorry for the light posting.  It's not you, it's me.

Just wanted to check in and note that the Billy Donovan to Oklahoma City rumors are not cooling off.  That would certainly have the potential to shake up SEC power rankings over the next few years.

[ESPN]

Georgia's assistants just got paid

All three of Mark Fox's assistance coaches got a very nice bump in pay.  The tournament berth surely had something to do with that, but the uptick in recruiting success hasn't hurt, either.

Jonas Hayes, in particular, was instrumental in landing Yante Maten and Michael Edwards, two big-time players out of Michigan.  Yasir Rosemond and Hayes look like they'll be a nice one-two punch on the recruiting trail as long as Fox can keep them in Athens.

Pearson is no slouch, either, as he was the lead recruiter on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope a few years ago.

[Ledger-Enquirer]

Forte out

In news that will likely surprise no one, Cameron Forte will transfer after he graduates.  Statement from Cam:

“I am extremely grateful to the University of Georgia and Coach Fox for giving me the opportunity to represent this institution on and off the basketball court,” Forte said. “This summer I will graduate and believe it is in my best interest to play my last year of collegiate basketball at an institution closer to home. I am thankful to my teammates, the UGA Athletic Association, academic staff, and coaches for the outgoing support over the last two years. Go Dawgs!”

Forte and Mark Fox were oil and water from the beginning, and Forte's practice habits in particular drove the head coach nuts.  With that said, no one loved game day like Cam, and I, for one, will miss him.

Bon voyage, Cam.  We'll always have this:



[Bulldawg Illustrated]

In defense of Mark Fox: winning, losing, and the postseason

Previously:  Program stability
Previously:  Recruiting

Just win, baby.

Want to keep your job even though things seem shady now and then?  Just win.

Want to keep your job even though you can't seem to recruit the big-time athletes?  Just win.

It is true and obvious, of course, in more than just college basketball that winning trumps almost everything else in coaching.  So has Mark Fox won enough to deserve more time?  I say yes.

Here is where program history matters.  If you expected Final Four berths and National Championships out of Mark Fox by this point, that's your problem, not his.  Do I want those things?  Yes.  Do I expect Mark Fox to build towards those things?  Yes.  However, those things take time.  It took Billy Donovan - one of the greatest coaching hires, well...maybe ever - 10 years to achieve those goals (and yes, he had more interim success along the way).

So let's look at Georgia program history, starting with the hiring of John Guthrie in 1973 (because you have to start somewhere):

Coach	Wins	Losses	%	Conference Titles	Tournament Berths	Tournament Wins
John Guthrie	46	86	35	0	0	0
Hugh Durham	298	216	58	0	5	4
Tubby Smith	45	19	70	0	2	2
Ron Jirsa	35	30	54	1	0	0
Jim Harrick	67	53	56	0	2	1
Dennis Felton*	75	80	48	1	1	0
Mark Fox	106	89	54	0	2	0

*Felton/Herman in 2008-09

The Hugh Durham years have to be considered the Golden Age of Georgia Basketball.  Tubby won at a high rate, but he only did it for 2 years.  Jim Harrick looked like he was building something, but then he did what Jim Harrick does...

So how does Mark Fox compare?  Not too badly.  In fact, his winning percentage and the program winning percentage match over the time span I laid out - 54%.  He trails Jim Harrick and Tubby Smith, but the sample size is very, very small with those two.

The program has 12 20-win seasons in its history.  Mark Fox owns 3 of those.  The current streak of two 20-win seasons in a row matches the longest in program history.

The program has 12 NCAA tournament berths.  Mark Fox owns 2 of those.  The longest streak of tournament berths in program history is 2 (accomplished three times) and Fox could match that with a berth next season (something I'm expecting).

Where Fox falls short, of course, is tournament wins - but just barely.  Some perspective is necessary.  Georgia has won 7 tournament games in its history, but has only won a game in 4 individual tournaments.  In 8 out of 12 tournaments in which they've participated, Georgia was ousted in their first game (including Fox's two).  Personally, I don't like to place a lot of emphasis on tournament wins.  Are they important?  Sure!  But there's a randomness to the tournament (that's what makes it great) that only the elite programs consistently overcome.

It may sound like over-simplifying, but the way to win tournament games is to make a lot of tournaments.  If Fox can do that, the wins will come.

To the naysayers, this will all sounds like excuse-making.  Believe me.  I get that.  But like you, I have no vested interest in making excuses for Mark Fox.  I just want to win, and right now, I believe Georgia is winning enough that the future is bright.

What Fox has done wouldn't be enough for an established powerhouse like North Carolina or Duke, but he has raised the level of play at Georgia to near-historic levels.  Now we want more.  Instead of just tournament berths, we want tournament wins.  We want Sweet 16's.  We want conference championships.

If you read my three-pronged defense of Fox, you know I think things are trending upwards.  He has the program on a solid footing, he's building depth that we haven't seen in many years, and he's creating a culture that won't just be satisfied with mediocre results.

So thanks for a couple of nice seasons, Coach Mark.  Now just keep winning.

Tech series moved again

Last year, Georgia and Georgia Tech opened their respective seasons by playing one another.  It was the earliest the game had been played in a long time.

Next year, expect the opposite.  Tech won't show up in Athens until conference play is well underway (assuming they sign the contract).

Apart from the result, I kind of liked opening the season against them.  Really, though, I suspect most Georgia fans don't care as long as we start beating them.

[Online Athens]

In defense of Mark Fox: recruiting

Previously:  Program stability

It's very difficult to win without players.

Yes, there are coaches who seem to get the most out of every player on the roster and can win almost in spite of their talent - think Brad Stevens.  Most of the time, though, winning starts on the recruiting trail, and it's here that Mark Fox has taken the most criticism.

I'm not here to tell you Fox has been the best recruiter in the world, but I am going to tell you the trend line is positive and there's reason for optimism.

Between 1979 and 1989, the University of Georgia welcomed in a whopping 7 McDonald's All-Americans:  Dominique Wilkins, Terry Fair, Vern Fleming, James Banks, Donald Hartry, Litterial Green, and Shaun Golden.

Since 1990, there have been precisely 2:  Carlos Strong and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

The point is not that Fox has landed half our All-Americans in the last 25 years (even though he has).  The point is that Georgia wasn't necessarily a recruiting powerhouse before he showed up in 2009.

Felton had some decent class in 2007 and 2008 that set the stage for the 2010-11 tournament team, but the cupboard wasn't exactly full when Fox arrived in Athens.  Since then, here are the classes he has put together (star rankings are from 247sports.com):

2009:  ***Connor Nolte, ***Demario Mayfield, ***Vincent Williams, Gerald Robinson
2010:  ***Marcus Thornton, ***Donte' Williams, **Sherrard Brantley
2011:  ***Nemanja Djurisic, ***John Cannon, ***Tim Dixon, ***John Florveus, *****Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
2012:  ***Kenny Gaines, ***Charles Mann, ***Brandon Morris, **Houston Kessler
2013:  ***Juwan Parker, ***J.J. Frazier, ***Cameron Forte, **Kenny Paul Geno
2014:  ***Yante Maten, ***Osahen Iduwe
2015 (so far):  ***Turtle Jackson, ***E'Torrion Wilridge, ***Derek Ogbeide, ***Michael Edwards
2016 (so far):  ****Jordan Harris, ***Tyree Crump

There has been a steady improvement in the quality of athletes Mark Fox is bringing to Athens.  It hasn't been as fast as some might have liked, but it's there.

If Tevin Mack decides to join the fold (still a bit of a long shot), 2015 becomes a big-time class.  2016 could be a monster as well.  Some services have Crump as the higher rated player, and there are plenty of other stars who could join those two and make it a top 25 haul.

Of course, there's always room for improvement.  Fox needs to make better use of graduate transfers.  They were sprinkled all throughout the tournament this year and I don't think that's a coincidence.

He also needs to land a "big fish" every two years or so.  His classes are full of 4-year grinders, which is incredibly important for a program like Georgia, but it'll take a superstar or two to push them over the top.

Finally, it needs to be pointed out how great the Jonas Hayes and Yasir Rosemond hires were.  If you're not a strong recruiter, you hire strong recruiters, and that's what Fox did.  2016 and beyond is when we should start to see those hires really paying off in spades.