Kansas State: post mortem

Kansas State's RPI is not particularly good, and they're unlikely to compete for the Big 12 championship (due to the conference's overall strength), but if Georgia finds itself on the tournament bubble at the end of the season, that's the kind of win that's going to look really nice.

It was ugly, of course, and it is another reminder that this team still has a lot of growing up to do.  But in March, the minutiae of the game will have been forgotten, and it will stand as a road win over a Big 12 team:

• It was nice to hear Kenny Gaines get some recognition for his work on the defensive end - something you know I trumpet here often - but it was also inevitable after he completely shut down Kansas State's best scorer.  That was only the second time Foster failed to hit a 3-point shot all season and only the third time he was held short of double figures.
• Despite all of that, I was surprised Bruce Weber kept him on the bench as long as he did.  He was smart to ride Thomas Gipson as far as he could, but the Wildcats really could have used an extra scorer on the floor down the stretch.
• Some credit to Charles Mann, too, who continues to struggle from the free throw line, but hit 2 huge ones there at the end.
• Mann also hit a 3 and got good looks on his drives to the basket.  He's a pretty obvious choice for player of the game in this case.
• Nemi Djurisic's 3 down the stretch may have been the biggest shot of the game.  Took the crowd right out of the game.
• There really shouldn't have been much of a game, though.  Had Georgia found any rhythm early on the offensive end to pair with some truly suffocating defense they could have gone up by 15 in the first half.  Then they actually did go up by 15 in the second half, only to see the lead evaporate.  Gipson deserves some credit for that - he was unstoppable for a few minutes - but it was clear Georgia was pressing.  Good job by Mark Fox using his timeouts to settle them back down and get a win.
• Good technical from Fox, too.  The way he works the officials is masterful at times.
• Think Fox didn't know how important this game was?  He only used 8 players, and he primarily rode what has become his favorite lineup:  Thornton, Djurisic, Gaines, Mann, and Parker.  Hopefully they can rest a little on Saturday.
• J.J. Frazier has a nice assist to turnover ratio, but it would be even nicer if he could eliminate one ill-advised lob per game.

Call it ugly.  Make excuses.  However you slice it, that was a big win for a team desperate for a tournament berth.  If they take care of business at home on Saturday, Georgia will ride a lot of momentum into conference play.

Florida invents a new way to lose

I've heard of "beating yourself," but Florida took that to a whole new level last night:

The ball took an odd bounce off the rim because it was short and Florida forward Jacob Kurtz accidentally tipped in the miss with 0.4 seconds left to give Florida State a 65-63 win.

This is as close as I've come to feeling bad for Florida in a long, long time...

Game card: Kansas State

Opponent:  Kansas State
Mascot:  Wildcats
Primary color(s):  Purple
Record:  7-5
Best player:  Marcus Foster
Line:  Kansas State -3.5

Why Georgia will win:  Georgia played as poorly as they have all year against Mercer, and they still won.  They're due for a focused effort on New Year's Eve, because they know how important this game is.  Kansas State is driven by their guards, and Georgia has struggled more against teams that can hurt them inside.

Why Georgia will lose:  Kansas State hadn't lost at home until a feisty Texas Southern team knocked them off (don't laugh, they beat Michigan State too).  Now they'll be lathered up and angry as they try to finish non-conference play on a positive note.  As important as this game is for Georgia, it's similarly big for the Wildcats as Georgia looks like a good resume win this year.

What I think will happen:  Don't make me regret this, fellas.  Dawgs win an ugly one 67-66.

Assists and turnovers

Georgia was absolutely abysmal in assist to turnover ratio last year (324th in the nation, to be exact), so this surprised me:

The sophomore guard leads the Southeastern Conference and ranks 14th in the nation in assist to turnover ratio.

If you want to know why the Bulldogs are playing so well, J.J. Frazier's play at the point is a good place to start.  If Charles Mann can continue to develop his jump shot, Georgia has a deadly 3-guard lineup with Frazier, Mann, and Kenny Gaines.  And if Mann is the one with the ball, Frazier and Gaines make a deadly combo from 3-point land.

Also, just for good measure, there's this:

He also leads the SEC and is third nationally in free throw percentage at 92.9 percent on 26 of 28 from the line.

Now that is the kind of thing that gets me all tingly inside.

h/t Marc Weiszer

Mercer: post mortem

Georgia won.  Beyond that, it's tough to put much of a positive spin on that game.

Let's start by congratulating Mercer.  Their team was better, their fans were better, and they coulda, shoulda, woulda won that game.  Well fought.

For Georgia, this was a tale as old as time:  if you let an inferior team hang around, quite often, they'll find a way to beat you.  If the Dawgs could have put an 8 or 10 point run on Mercer at any point in the second half, the game would have been over and there wouldn't have been any drama.  Instead, Mercer hung close enough that when they got hot (and they did), the game was still in doubt.  Georgia is very, very lucky to have won that game.

Other thoughts:

• First triple overtime game in Stegeman Coliseum history.  Who knew?
• I have said previously that free throws will cost Georgia a game at some point this season, and with about 30 seconds left in the first overtime, I thought this was the one.  The Bulldogs - and Charles Mann in particular - were pathetic from the stripe, and if it doesn't get fixed, it will result in losses.  Period.
• With that said, Mann deserves as much credit as anyone for the win.  His two 3-pointers and his layup near the end of regulation were critical.  He also got the assist on the Kenny Gaines layup in the second overtime.
• Georgia hauled in 24 offensive rebounds (which just reinforces that this game should not have been close), but that's not something they can count on in SEC play.  Mercer just had no answer for Georgia's size inside...
• ...which made it all the more frustrating that Georgia didn't just feed Thornton and Djurisic in the post.  Some of that had to do with the zone employed late in the game, but much of it was just a stubborn reliance on the 3-point shot that rears its ugly head now and again with this team.
• Thornton, by the way, sure seemed to get jobbed on at least 4 of his 5 fouls.  I was in the arena, so I didn't have the benefit of replays, but the charge and the ensuing defensive foul both looked comically bad.  The officials seemed to struggle with the charge/block call all game.
• How Gaines ended up with 13 points is beyond me.  That's the worst offensive game we've seen him play in a while, but the mood would be very different without that layup, so credit where credit is due.
• His on-ball defense continues to be fantastic, though.
• J.J. Frazier, despite an ice cold shooting night, continues to assert himself.  He is just so darned quick, and his ability to penetrate created a couple easy shots.  With Turtle Jackson coming next season, that position is turning into an embarrassment of riches for Mark Fox.
• Some nice minutes for Yante Maten after Thornton fouled out.  There was almost no drop-off at the defensive end.
• About halfway through the first half, my dad and I decided simultaneously that Georgia's best lineup is Frazier, Mann, Gaines, Djurisic, and Thornton.  Apparently Fox agrees, as he rode them from the end of regulation all the way through the third overtime (with the exception of a fouled-out Thornton).
• Fox continues to get absolutely nothing from the 3 spot (paging Jaylen Brown).  Kenny Paul Geno has plenty of want-to, but there's no productivity right now.  Cameron Forte didn't even see the court.  That's a glaring weakness that probably won't get fixed anytime soon.

In so many ways, a win is a win, and sometimes good teams have bad nights.  Let's hope that's all this was.  It certainly served to bring Georgia fans back to earth a bit, but it will all be forgotten if the Dawgs bring their A-game to Manhattan, Kansas on Wednesday in what is now a huge, huge game.

Game card: Mercer

Opponent:  Mercer
Mascot:  Bears
Primary color(s):  Orange and black
Record:  6-6
Best player:  Ike Nwamu
Line:  Georgia -14

Why Georgia will win:  Georgia is better than Mercer in almost every facet of the game.  They're also undefeated at home, and confidence is extremely high right now.  Everyone is healthy and there's no reason to think Mercer can slow the Dawgs down.  Most remember Mercer knocking off Duke in last year's tournament, but all 5 starters from that team have since graduated.

Why Georgia will lose:  Mercer did go to the tournament last year, and they just played Tennessee pretty close at home.  Georgia has a history of playing down to its opponent, and doing so today could easily get them beat.

The Steg will rock like:  early 90's Bush.

What I think will happen:  It looks like the days of Georgia sleepwalking against weaker opponents are over.  Everyone sees the court as the Dawgs roll 81-66.

Dawgs are rolling

How about an article talking about how well Georgia's basketball team is playing...in December:

It’s a rare thing to say this time of the year that good things are happening for the Georgia men’s basketball program. And three weeks ago, that couldn’t be said.

That has changed, in a big way. Georgia routed Seton Hall on Sunday, 65-47, giving the Bulldogs their second straight win over a strong opponent.

The fans seem to be noticing, and they responded by putting their butts in the seats for a game less than a week before Christmas.  It's been a while since that has happened:

“I’ve been here five years. I’ve never, in December, over Christmas break, seen a crowd like that before,” Georgia senior Marcus Thornton said. “I mean that was the best crowd we’ve had all year. … And we’re glad we’re able to give them a pretty good performance.”

The season has been far from perfect, but things seem to be clicking right now - something that hasn't happened early in any season under Fox.  Georgia has two really nice wins over Colorado and Seton Hall, and the chance to grab another in Manhattan, Kansas on the 30th.

A lot is going right, of course, but a few things stand out.  First, the defense has been getting better and better.  The team we saw on Sunday would have run Minnesota out of the gym.  The scoring continues to be distributed, as well, which is key for a team that has struggled in the past with large scoring droughts.

The fact that all of this has been done without a completely healthy Kenny Gaines bears mentioning, as he and Marcus Thornton are the Dawgs' two best players.  If Gaines can stay healthy and get a few more practices under his belt, Georgia will cause a lot of problems in the SEC this year.

Be sure to watch the video attached to the article, as well.  In it, Gaines talks about his reaction to his injury ("I thought it was over") and whether or not he would have done the reverse dunk in a close game (yes).

h/t Seth Emerson

Seton Hall: post mortem

Well, there you have it.  I couldn't be happier to have been so wrong in my prediction.  We just saw a wire-to-wire win in a very, very important game.  There was literally no drama, so let's get right to the good stuff:

• How good was Georgia's defense?  Sterling Gibbs, Isaiah Whitehead, and Brandon Mobley are Seton Hall's three leading scorers.  They were a combined 24 points below their season averages.
• Seton Hall also shot 15% from 3-point range, despite being in the top 20 in the nation in that category.
• While we're talking about defense, let's give Yante Maten the praise he deserves.  His offense will come, but his defense is already pretty good.  He's near the top 20 (nationally) in blocks per game at just over 2.  His ability to defend in the post without fouling tonight was very impressive, and one of his blocks led to the first of two Kenny Gaines highlight reel dunks.
• And for what it's worth, the reverse was nice, but the first was my favorite.  That boy can jump.
• Speaking of Gaines, I think he's healthy, but I don't think it mattered tonight.  That's no shot at Gaines, either.  The thing about this Georgia team that's so different is that they have at least 6 legitimate scoring threats.  Want to collapse in the lane?  Meet J.J. Frazier and Kenny Gaines.  Want to guard the 3-point line?  Marcus Thornton or Nemi Djurisic will go to work.  The long scoring droughts have all but disappeared, and that's because there's no longer one player carrying the team offensively.
• Seton Hall made one 7-point run to get it under 10 in the first half, but then there was Frazier hitting a leaner at the shot clock to put Georgia back up by 11.  It would never be single digits again.  Frazier has had a knack this season of hitting big shots when Georgia needs them.
• Oh, and J.J. also had 11(!) rebounds.  Thornton had to wrestle one away from Kenny Paul Geno in the first half, probably because he needed the stat - Frazier was hogging all of the boards.
• Georgia as a team was +19 in rebounds, had 14 assists on 22 makes, and blocked 8 shots.  Those kinds of stats win games.
• Seton Hall pressed all night, but it was mostly uneventful for Georgia.  That was wonderful to see, as dealing with press defenses has been sticky in the past.
• The free throws, though, continue to be a concern.
• Great crowd.  There on time, energetic, and pretty loud.  I was impressed.

What we saw tonight was an NCAA tournament team.  That's not a prediction, just a statement that the talent is there.  If Mark Fox can get that kind of energy and effort out of them the rest of the way, they'll be dancing for sure.

Next up is Mercer, and good teams beat teams like Mercer even after big wins like this.  It's just another step in the journey, and Fox has to keep them focused.

Game card: Seton Hall

Opponent:  Seton Hall
Mascot:  Pirates
Primary color(s):  Blue and white
Record:  9-1
Best player:  Sterling Gibbs
Line:  Georgia -4.5

Why Georgia will win:  Georgia is at home, which is becoming a very comfortable place to play for the Bulldogs.  Kenny Gaines may not be 100% healthy, but he'll play, and that should be enough.  This will only be Seton Hall's third true road game of the season, and they're 1-1 in the first two.

Why Georgia will lose:  Seton Hall is 9-1, and regardless of the competition, that's a good record.  Their RPI is in the top 20, and that is not a fluke.  Sterling Gibbs can shoot the lights out, and Georgia has been giving teams open looks from deep all season.  This is a non-conference game the Bulldogs badly need, which of course means they won't get it.

The Steg will rock like:  open mic night.

What I think will happen:  Another slow start dooms Georgia.  Seton Hall wins 75-69.

What I hope will happen: 

Gaines should play

Good news as Kenny Gaines looks set to play on Sunday against Seton Hall:

“I would say I think he will play,” Fox said. “We were able to get him partially back in practice, but it’s been a slow recovery.”

It would be unrealistic to expect him to do much scoring, as his jumper is so key to what he does.  However, his defensive presence could loom large against a Seton Hall team that scores the ball pretty well.

The game is shaping up to be a big one for Georgia against a Pirates team that currently holds a top 20 RPI.

h/t Marc Weiszer

Almost

The SEC looked like it was on the verge of another signature out-of-conference win last night, but Alabama couldn't quite hold on:

No. 11 Wichita State scored 13 of the game's final 14 points to hold off Alabama for a 53-52 victory. The Shockers (8-1) took the final lead on Darius Carter's slam with 11.9 seconds remaining, part of his game-high 16 points.

That would have been huge for the conference and for Anthony Grant, who may be coaching for his job this year.  He has the Tide playing pretty well, but blowing an 11-point lead that late in the game isn't a good look.

Any way you slice it, though, the SEC seems to be passing the eye test around the country this year.  Whether that's because the conference is better or because the rest of the country has regressed, well...I can't say for sure.

h/t ESPN

RPI's rising

Exams roll on and Georgia continues practicing and (hopefully) getting better.  Kenny Gaines' shoulder is, of course, on all of our minds.  There is a lot riding on that shoulder starting next Sunday at 6:00.

Posting had admittedly been thin around here (real life can be so intrusive), but Hoop Dawgs has you covered with a nice update on where we are.

The most important non-shoulder related tidbit is probably this:

The good news, though, is that the league has 5 teams in the RPI Top 50, a poll that is much more indicative of a team’s NCAA Tournament chances. Currently, Kentucky, LSU, Arkansas, Alabama and Ole Miss all have RPI’s under 50. Georgia plays all of the aforementioned teams (Kentucky and Ole Miss twice), along with #26 Seton Hall, giving Mark Fox’s team plenty of chances to improve upon their 2-7 record against the RPI Top 50 from a year ago. The Dawgs RPI currently sits at 64, which kind of pleasantly surprised me considering the 5-3 record.

We're still at the point in the season where RPI's can fluctuate rapidly, but the weakness of the SEC might actually be a bit overstated this year. After Seton Hall, Georgia has one more real shot at a quality win (Kansas State) before SEC play starts, so the fiercer the SEC looks, the better it is for everyone.

h/t Hoop Dawgs

SEC strength, part 2

Another look at the national perception of SEC hoops.  It starts with a reminder that Bruce Pearl may have been a bit overconfident in his return to coaching:

Exactly seven weeks ago today, new Auburn basketball coach Bruce Pearl said of the Southeastern Conference's NCAA tournament prospects this coming March, "This year I guarantee five, and I think there could be as many as six, NCAA teams."

Roughly a month into the season, it again appears as if the conference might be closer to last year's three invitees than Pearl's hoped-for six.

The early RPI numbers back that up:

Even the RPI numbers hint of an SEC again in flux. Though eight schools are among RealTime RPI's first 69, any team past 40 is living on the edge, and half of those eight are doing just that -- Ole Miss (69), Mississippi State (63), South Carolina (61) and A&M (56) all outside the comfort zone currently enjoyed by UK (2), LSU (20), Arkansas (21) and Alabama (35).

As we approach conference play, the SEC really, really needs some quality out-of-conference wins to boost their collective RPI.  Our own Georgia Bulldogs could help with that by beating Seton Hall - currently sitting at 19 in the daily RPI rankings.

The article, by the way, never mentions Georgia, which means they are still somehow flying under the radar despite finishing tied for second in the conference last year.  The only way to change that is by doing it all over again.

h/t Chattanooga Times Free Press

A little late

Good to know Tech is going to come around on transfer policies, at least as long as it suits them.

Listen, there's absolutely no guarantee Robert Carter, Jr. would have ended up at UGA, but it's pretty sad that Tech didn't even give him a chance.  I'm genuinely curious what will happen if and when Bobinski has to put his money where his mouth is.

h/t AJC

Colorado: post mortem

Was it a masterpiece?  No.  Was it a huge win for Georgia?  Yes.  If Colorado can just be the same team they were last year, this is a resume builder.

In many ways, this was like Georgia playing itself from 2 years ago.  Colorado just couldn't score, and a 7 minute scoring drought in which they were outscored 16-0 ultimately did them in.  They passed and passed and passed, but they never got great looks, and when they did, they rarely went in.

That Georgia is not suffering these same droughts should be credited to Fox and to the veterans on the team.  It's not always pretty, but the Dawgs just chug away.

Some more thoughts:

• The post defense, especially out of Thornton, was fantastic pretty much all night.  Josh Scott got his, but most of his damage was done when the game was, if not out of reach, pretty well in hand.
• Along those lines, much of what gives me the most hope that things just might be different with this year's Bulldogs is the fact that the game never really felt in doubt for the entire second half.  Even when things got sloppy at the end and Colorado (to their credit) clawed within 6, it was more irritating than scary.
• Part of that is because J.J. Frazier kept hitting big shots.  Both of his threes down the stretch came at really big moments.
• Speaking of threes, Marcus Thornton had another one and Charles Mann had two.  I'm not sure that's something we can count on every night, but I'll take it.
• The loss of Kenny Gaines is scary.  This is a team with very little margin for error.  Georgia might survive at the offensive end, but the loss of Gaines' defensive presence is daunting.  The game felt different after he left, and you may recall the debacle against Vanderbilt last season was played without Gaines in the lineup.
• Tough night for Yante Maten.  It didn't cost the team, so shake it off and move on to the next one.
• Nemi's pump and baseline drive down the stretch may have been the biggest bucket of the game.  The maturation of his offensive skillset has been fun to watch the last few years.  He will have a nice career in Europe if he wants it.
• I'll keep mentioning it as long as it's true:  the hole at small forward is just glaring.  There will be a freshman starting there next season, and it will be a huge upgrade.
• 8 assists and 14 turnovers represents some regression for Georgia, but they're still getting good looks most trips down the court, so I'd be remiss if I complained just yet.
• I was a little surprised they didn't allow folks to move down into the lower bowl today.  It was a small-ish but spirited crowd, and it would have been a perfect game to give that a test run.  There were several hundred folks in the upper deck.
• Nice contingent from Colorado, too.  Not sorry you lost, but I hope you enjoyed Athens!

 This was a big one.  So is the next one.  Get healthy, Kenny.

Game card: Colorado

Opponent:  Colorado
Mascot:  Buffaloes
Primary color(s):  Black and Gold
Record:  5-1
Best player:  Josh Scott
Line:  Georgia -3

Why Georgia will win:  Colorado doesn't score very well, averaging under 70 points/game.  They've also only played one true road game, and they put up an anemic 33 points in a loss to Wyoming.  Georgia plays well at home and Kenny Gaines is rounding into form.

Why Georgia will lose:  Josh Scott is one of the best front court players Georgia will see all year.  The Buffaloes were a tournament team last year and returned most of their key pieces.  This is a big game for Georgia, which means the Dawgs will inevitably press and get down early.

The Steg will rock like:  a bowling alley on league night.

What I think will happen:  Georgia needs this one badly, and they win it 71-67.

You hereby have permission to go to Sunday School and skip the service today.  The Dawgs need you.

Kenny makes peace

Nice story from Seth Emerson about Kenny Gaines reaching out to Josh Perkins, the player whose jaw he unintentionally broke.  He got in touch with him via Dusan Langura, of all people.

Hopefully Perkins comes back strong and Gaines keeps any momentum he found in that Chattanooga game.

h/t Seth Emerson

The SEC is...average?

True story:  I was traveling to Detroit for work, and the hotel I booked sent out an email to welcome me.  In the note, the manager said their motto was, "Detroit:  it's not as bad as you thought!"

I went to check on the SEC's conference ranking tonight, and I expected to find bad news.  The conference has seemed less-than-stellar thusfar.  The answer, though, is that the SEC is not as bad as I thought.

Here are the conference RPI rankings from realtimerpi.com:

Rank		Conference	Avg. RPI	Avg. SOS	SOS Rank	Teams
	1	Big 12	0.6221	0.5597	2	10
	2	Big Ten	0.6031	0.5522	3	14
	3	Big East	0.5852	0.5228	7	10
	4	Atlantic Coast	0.5808	0.5471	5	15
	5	Southeastern	0.5753	0.5615	1	14
	6	Atlantic 10	0.5491	0.5398	6	14
	7	Pacific-12	0.5482	0.4876	19	12
	8	West Coast	0.5454	0.5149	12	10
	9	Missouri Valley	0.5442	0.5495	4	10
	10	American Athletic	0.5274	0.5060	14	11

Last year the SEC finished 7th, so that's a tick up.  You'll notice the strength of schedule is helping quite a bit.

The caveat, of course, is that it's very, very early, and there could still be some wild swings (Green Bay is currently 4th in team RPI).  However, it's an encouraging start, because a strong SEC is good for Georgia, who is going to need three or four quality wins to get into the tournament.

A couple can certainly come out of conference (Colorado and Seton Hall would be a great start), but Georgia will need some SEC teams with high RPI's on the schedule, and they'll have to beat those teams.  So plug your nose and root for Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, and LSU.  Then hope we can get at least three wins out of that group when conference play rolls around.

Pig suckie

It's looking way, way ahead, but the first conference game in Athens against Arkansas may be a big one.  Let's hope they're ranked, because Arkansas hasn't won on the road as a ranked team since 1999.

Of course, losing to Iowa State is nothing to be too ashamed about.  Still, let's hope the trend holds for a couple more weeks...

Chattanooga: post mortem

It's hard to find much fault with a win like that.  Just how good Chattanooga is remains to be seen, but they are always tough to beat at home, and Georgia made it look easy.  We're now Mocs fans, and we will hope UTC can make a nice run in the Southern Conference.

A few thoughts:

• Welcome back, Kenny Gaines.
• Attacking Kenny is so much more fun that passive Kenny.  The infusion of confidence he gets when his threes start going down makes him the most dangerous scorer on the team.
• Then there is Marcus Thornton, who missed one shot all night en route to a career high 24 points.  UTC had absolutely no answer.  Seeing Marcus healthy is a real treat.  It makes you wonder what could have been with him had his knees cooperated earlier in his career.
• I could do without the random Thornton 3-pointers, though.  At least he knocked it down tonight.
• Charles Mann had a much better time in Chattanooga than he did in New York.  He protected the ball, attacked when he had the chance, and handed out 5 assists to boot.  His free throw shooting is coming around, too.
• Rebounding continues to be a bit of a concern.  Statistically, Georgia dominated, but much of that was due to that fact that they just didn't miss many shots, meaning Chattanooga had very few chances at defensive rebounds.  The Mocs did collect 11 offensive boards, though, and Georgia needs to get that under control.
• The defense continues to give up a lot of open looks from the 3-point line, too.  I can live with well contested threes, but that's not what I'm seeing.
• Yante Maten had a tough night offensively, but he's turning into a nice shot-blocking threat, isn't he?  I was going to type this even before I checked the box score and saw he had 6 in the game.
• Nice to see Juwan Parker knock down a three.  He is much improved, and if he can find that range, he has a chance to do some damage over the next few years.
• Ho-hum, another near double-double for Nemi.

The team we saw tonight would have beaten Minnesota, probably handily, which makes that loss all the more baffling.  They took care of the ball, got good shots, and defended well enough.  It's going to take a similar effort at home on Sunday when Colorado comes calling in what is now an absolutely huge game for the Dawgs.  Be there.  And bring a friend.

Game card: Chattanooga

Opponent:  Chattanooga
Mascot:  Mocs
Primary color(s):  Green and Gold
Record:  3-4
Best player:  Casey Jones
Line:  Georgia -8

Why Georgia will win:  Despite a disappointing 0-2 showing in New York, Georgia has played well in stretches.  The long scoring droughts are gone, and Chattanooga doesn't have the size to control Nemanja Djurisic and Marcus Thornton inside.  The game is a must-win, and UGA knows this.

Why Georgia will lose:  Georgia hasn't won away from Stegeman Coliseum yet and Chattanooga is battle tested, already having played Wisconsin and Butler.  They are 3-0 at home, and are ready to kick a Georgia team while it's down.

What I think will happen:  Georgia wins 77-64, but it's not yet enough to stem the disappointment.

Slow starts

Here are some numbers of interest from Georgia's last five losses:

Minnesota
  Early deficit:  23-10 after ten minutes
  Final margin:  4 points
Gonzaga
  Early deficit:  21-8 after 8 minutes
  Final margin:   12 points
Georgia Tech
  Early deficit:  14-5 after 8 minutes
  Final margin:   7
Louisiana Tech  Early deficit:  20-4 after 6 minutes
  Final margin:   8
Kentucky
  Early deficit:  14-4 after 5 minutes
  Final margin:   12

It's not hard to notice a pattern.  In their last five losses, Georgia has come out slow and dug themselves a large hole.  Even five minutes in, a 10-point deficit is not small when you're playing a competent basketball team, let along Gonzaga or Kentucky.  The silver lining, if there is one, is that Georgia has been winning the second half, but that's small consolation in a loss.

I don't claim to have an answer here, but it's hard not to point the finger at Mark Fox because it just feels like a coaching issue (remember, I'm a fan, not a coach, so take everything I say with a grain of salt).  Other teams are ready to play from the opening tip, and Georgia is not, particularly at the defensive end.

Fix that problem and there is still a chance to have a special season.  It's at least something to keep an eye on as Georgia plays some critical non-conference games to close out 2014.